Speakers: 

• Ram Bala Chandran, Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Debt, Neuberger Berman
• Carlos Capistrán, Managing Director, Head of Canada and Mexico Economics, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
• Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
• Jose Enrique Arrioja, Editor, Latin America, Bloomberg News (moderator)

As Andrés Manuel López Obrador nears his first anniversary in Mexico’s presidency, AS/COA hosted a panel to explore the country’s economic outlook. Moderator Jose Enrique Arrioja asked financial experts for their views on prospects for growth, the financial health of state oil firm Pemex, and how rising perceptions of violence affect Mexico’s economic prospects.

Ariane Ortiz-Bollin forecasted limited economic growth due to inconsistent economic policies and mixed messaging, but concluded that we need to look ahead to 2021 to see the impact of the AMLO government’s measures, particularly as it will be a legislative election year. She also noted that weak rule of law has limited Mexico’s credit ratings for some time. Ram Bala Chandran predicted that the U.S. election will result in volatility for Mexico, saying GDP growth will bottom out in the first half of 2020 before recovering in the second half of the year. Carlos Capistrán spoke about the problem of weakening institutions, saying sharp wage cuts for government workers along with moves to limit their future employment in the private sector have meant a deterioration in the quality of management within the AMLO administration. He agreed that GDP growth will be below 1 percent in 2020, and that growth has been weak despite Mexico not facing any external shocks. He noted positive factors too, such as the Central Bank’s independence and NAFTA still being in place, while recommending that the AMLO government take a step back to let the private sector “do its job.”

Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online, spoke with Univision News about the nine people killed in Mexico on November 4th. Mexican authorities said today that the weapons used in the attack were American-made.

“Mexican authorities have, for a long time, been asking for the United States to do more to prevent these guns from coming into Mexico,” said Zissis. “Assault weapons actually go for more than they go for in the United States. That’s the economics driving it, plus the smuggling driving it, and it’s feeding the violence here.”

Zissis provided a contrast between the two countries, stating that there is only one, heavily guarded gun shop in Mexico, while there are over 60,000 gun shops and dealers in the United States. She also cited the lax gun laws in the southwest border, explaining that there are limited checks coming into Mexico on the southern border.

“After what happened in Culiacán with El Chapo’s son, the botched arrest of Ovidio Guzmán, the U.S. government, in particular the U.S. Embassy here in Mexico, talked about increasing surveillance at the southern border in order to prevent some of that smuggling,” said Zissis.

“Some of that’s still developing and we’ll see if it comes to fruition. It’s been years that the Mexican government has been asking for this to be attended to.”

When asked if people in Mexico, or even the United States, can expect any kind of justice, Zissis said, “more work to get a handle on impunity, improvement of rule of law, reforms in the police forces” are what can be done to see change.