The Coronavirus in Latin America
The Coronavirus in Latin America
AS/COA Online looks at how governments are responding to COVID-19 across the region, as well the economic impact of the pandemic.
The coronavirus landed in Latin America on February 26, when Brazil confirmed a case in São Paulo. Since then, governments across the region have taken an array of actions to protect their citizens and contain COVID-19’s spread. But, per a July 26 Reuters tally, Latin America has become the region with the highest number of confirmed cases globally, accounting for more than a quarter of cases in the world.
Aside from the health risks, there will be an economic impact as well. The World Bank forecasted in June that Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole will see a GDP contraction of 7.2 percent this year. Prior to the pandemic in October 2019, the multilateral predicted GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2020 for the region.
Below, AS/COA Online takes a look at measures taken and the economic impact felt in Latin America.
This article was originally published on March 5 and has been updated with new information.
AS/COA Online mira cómo los gobiernos responden al COVID-19 en la región.
Spread
- January 19: 1,819,569 confirmed cases, 46,066 deaths
- January 12: 1,744,704 confirmed cases, 44,848 deaths
- December 15: 1,510,203 confirmed cases, 41,204 deaths
- November 17: 1,329,005 confirmed cases, 36,106 deaths
- October 20: 1,018,999 confirmed cases, 27,100 deaths
- September 22: 652,174 confirmed cases, 13,952 deaths
- August 25: 359,638 confirmed cases, 7,661 deaths
- August 4: 213,535 confirmed cases, 4,009 deaths
- July 7: 83,426 confirmed cases, 1,654 deaths
- June 9: 24,761 confirmed cases, 717 deaths
- May 12: 6,563 confirmed cases, 321 deaths
- April 14: 2,443 confirmed cases, 105 deaths
- March 17: 79 confirmed cases, 2 deaths
- March 10: 19 confirmed cases, 1 death
- March 7: First death
- March 3: First confirmed case
- On March 7, Argentina became the first country in Latin America to announce a death related to the virus after a 64-year-old man died in Buenos Aires.
- The first case was confirmed on March 3, involving a 43-year-old Argentine man who returned home from a two-week trip to Milan, Italy.
- On October 5, Argentina’s COVID-19 test positivity rate hit 60 percent—the world’s highest—a reflection of low testing and lax enforcement of public health measures.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: On December 10, President Alberto Fernández unveiled a national vaccination plan, which aims to administer 60 million doses across the country in the first six months of 2021. Among groups who will receive immunization first are the elderly, health care workers, and military personnel.
- On January 16, the country received the second 300,000-dose allotment of the Russian Sputnik V vaccines. On December 29, 2020, the country began vaccinating citizens with Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine after receiving the first shipment of 300,000 doses of a total of around 10 million. The fast rollout of the Russian vaccine has sparked questions about its transparency and efficacy, however. For example, despite the Russian lab announcing a 91.4 percent efficacy rate from trial data, Russia’s regulator approved the vaccine’s use before trials ended. In Argentina, a Poliarquia poll saw that only 39 percent of Argentines have some confidence in Sputnik V, compared with almost 60 percent for the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines.
- On December 30, Argentina authorized the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, becoming the first country in Latin America to do so. Over one week earlier, the national health regulator authorized the use of Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine.
- In ealy November, 2020, Argentina agreed to purchase 22 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine within the first six months of 2021. The day before, Fernández said that Argentina was looking to purchase an additional 750,000 doses of the U.S. Pfizer vaccine in December. On August 13, Fernández announced that the Argentine laboratory mAbxience signed an agreement with AstraZeneca and Oxford University to produce their vaccine, which is in its third phase of testing. Fernández announced that between 150 and 250 million doses will be available for distribution across Latin America—with the exception of Brazil, which has a separate production and distribution agreement—in the first six months of 2021. Argentina also agreed with Mexico that the first stage of production (producing the active substance) will take place in Argentina while final production stages will be in Mexico.
- Reopening plan: The government extended a measure in which the entire country would remain in the social distancing phase from December 21, 2020 through January 31, 2021. However, they urged provincial authorities to assess contagion rates in their provinces (see the January 8 update mitigation measures). In this more relaxed phase, people may move without permission passes, host outdoor gatherings of up to 100 people and indoor ones of up to 20, indoor sporting activities of up to 10 people, and dine at restaurants at 30 percent capacity. The use of face masks continues to be mandatory, as well as keeping a six feet distance wherever possible. In a first move toward reopening, the government announced a new social distancing phase on June 7 that eased quarantine restrictions for large portions of the national territory with low levels of contagion. On this date, social and economic activity restarted but following strict health guidelines, including restricting social gatherings to 10 people or fewer and maintaining two meters from each other while using face masks in public spaces.
- Mitigation measures:
- On January 18, scientists announced the first nationally-developed rapid test—approved by the national regulatory agency ANMAT. It detects infection through a drop of blood.
- On January 12, Argentina announced trials for a hyperimmune serum from horse antibodies to fight COVID-19—which began in July 2020—were successful, and distribution of the treatment in hospitals and other medical centers would begin a few days later. Producer Inmunova said that current production capacity is between 12,000 to 15,000 monthly treatments (as the number of vials a person receives depends on their weight) but they expect to produce about 1,000,000 monthly treatments by March.
- On January 8, the government announced that governors must assess the epidemiological situation in their provinces and impose restrictions to movement and public activities accordingly. The government defines a province as having a high contagion rate if the number of confirmed cumulative cases from the past 14 days per 100,000 people is higher than 150. In the city of Buenos Aires, shops and restaurants will be closed from 1 to 6 pm.
- Fernández decreed a national health emergency on March 12, to be in effect for one year.
- Travel and border restrictions: On January 8, the government extended a December measure through January 31 to shut land and sea borders, as well as air borders to flights coming from four European countries (Denmark, Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Holland, Italy) and Australia. Starting December 15, all incoming travelers must submit a valid negative PCR test completed up to 72 hours before travel. Domestic commercial flights and land travel were allowed to resume as of October 15. Foreigners were allowed to enter the country as of October 25.
- School closings and restrictions: Beginning October 12, schools began to gradually resume in-person classes, based on how contained the virus is in that district. In-person classes at all school levels were suspended on March 15.
- Other updates:
- Argentina’s Chamber of Deputies, resumed in-person sessions in December after seven months of virtual meetings. Deputies who are at risk are exempt. The Senate, meanwhile, will continue virtual sessions through at least March 1. On June 29, the Supreme Court lifted the judicial recess that it implemented March 16 for itself as well as national and federal courts and resumed activities remotely. First courts of appeal and criminal courts continue to be suspended until further notice.
- When it comes to regional ties, Argentina suspended its participation in the Mercosur trade bloc on April 24 to focus on the health and economic crisis at home after partners Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay agreed to advance on new trade agreements with countries, including Canada, India, Lebanon, Singapore, and South Korea. The decision only affects new trade deals, as the country will continue to work on established negotiations such as with the European Union. Argentina said it would reevaluate its position if new agreements were paused.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: On December 4, the Central Bank forecast an 10.9 percent contraction in GDP in 2020, slightly improved from the 11.6-point drop projected the month before. A December Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) report projected GDP will contract 10.5 percent in 2020. A September 22 National Institute for Statistics and Census report showed a 16.2 percent GDP contraction in the second quarter. The total GDP contraction for the first half of the year was 12.6 percent.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- The government extended a decree, originally issued April 1, that prohibits companies from firing or suspending employees without just cause or due to downsizing through January 31. Previously, after a meeting with cabinet ministers on March 17, the government announced extending leaves of absence for workers above 65 years of age, and fiscal measures such as minimizing individual and corporate taxes.
- On November 18, the lower house of Congress approved a bill that aims to raise roughly $3.8 billion for COVID-19 relief through a one-time 2 percent wealth tax on fortunes of $2.7 million and above. The Senate will review the bill by the end of November.
- With confirmed cases and deaths continuing to rise, on August 20 the government increased its health budget by over $47 million to help finance universal aid programs during the pandemic.
- On May 11, the president added over $5.6 billion to the public spending budget and granted Chief of Staff Santiago Cafiero powers to oversee the national budget through the end of 2020 without congressional oversight. Fernández also suspended Cafiero’s congressionally approved 5 percent limit within which to make budget adjustments, saying that it is “necessary to give flexibility to spending related to the health emergency due to COVID-19." The opposition criticized this measure, including former legislator Eduardo Amadeo saying, “It is definitely unconstitutional, a state of emergency cannot shut out Congress.”
- In an effort to control price gouging, the government on April 9 announced cooperation with the Interior Commerce Secretariat to control and regulate municipalities’ prices of basic goods across the country, including food and medicine. On April 1, the government announced it will eliminate import taxes on critical medical supplies for the duration of the health crisis.
- Social programs:
- On October 13, the Central Bank issued roughly $39 million in loans to small- and medium-sized tourism-related businesses.
- On September 24, the government extended a measure to suspend housing evictions, as well as freezes on rent hikes and mortgage rates, through January 31, 2021.
- On August 27, the government further expanded definitions for the Emergency Employment and Production Assistance Program, including more companies that fit into the assistance program criteria. On July 24, the government incorporated financing for companies who show an increase in mid-year revenue into the program. Additionally, the government will continue to pay salaries for private sector workers whose income fell in June 2020 compared to the same period last year. Moreover, workers from companies considered “critical”—including those in tourism, entertainment, culture, health, and sports—will receive complementary salaries through December 2020 up to the minimum wage of $110 a week. This adds to the May 5 expansion to the Program allowing companies with over 800 employees to request assistance, as well as companies who have lost 30 percent in billing. The government announced on April 19 it would pay workers of companies facing a financial crisis 50 percent of their salaries, and will give zero-interest loans to self-employed workers. This was the first expansion of the Program announced on April 1, which includes postponing or reducing up to 95 percent of employer payments to the Argentine social security agency, as well as a compensatory salary for workers in companies of up to 100 employees who meet conditions such as being in obligatory quarantine or at high health risk, or whose commission-based productivity has been highly affected.
- On August 21, the government announced it would extend its price freeze on mobile, internet, and television services through the end of 2020, and come 2021, any price increases must gain government approval.
- On June 18, the government prolonged an April 30 measure extending the date of suspension for bank accounts until December 31 for holders unable to clear bounced checks or pay fees. On June 9, the government extended through December a measure that requires companies to double severance pay for private sector workers let go from their jobs without just cause, a measure that had gone into effect pre-COVID-19 in December 2019 for six months. The government also announced on June 18 a series of non-deductible monthly bonuses for medical workers of up to $590 for the months of April, May, June, July, and August available on August 1, with amounts sum variable depending on length of service and specialty.
- On April 9, the Culture Ministry set up a $460,000 development fund to help cultural institutions such as museums and theaters cover operating costs and salaries.
- On April 8, the government implemented the Provincial Financial Emergency Program, allocating roughly $1.85 billion from the National Treasury Contribution Fund and Trust Fund for Provincial Development to help provincial finances during the crisis.
- Other updates:
- Argentina’s poverty rate rose to almost 41 percent in the first half of 2020, according to a September 30 government report, up from 36 percent a year ago.
- The S&P upgraded Argentina’s long-term sovereign credit rating to CCC+ out of SD (selective default) status on September 7 in light of the government’s restructuring of over $100 billion in debt in foreign bonds and foreign currency, including a $65 billion debt restructuring deal with international creditors announced on August 4, which was accepted by nearly all of the country’s creditors on August 31.
- A June 4 Reuters report indicated that Central Bank reserves fell almost $1 billion in May, leaving reserves at just below $43 billion amid the pandemic, compared to nearly $80 billion in early 2019. A June 4 National Institute for Statistics and Census report revealed a 33.5 percent plummet in industrial production in April 2020 after the pandemic-related restrictions to manufacturing, compared to an 8.9 point contraction the same month the previous year. On March 25, the World Bank had announced it will lend Argentina $300 million in emergency funds, totaling $165 million in 2020 and $135 million in 2021.
- On May 19, the government put a local crude oil price of $45 per “criollo” barrel to back producers at the major Vaca Muerta shale deposit, while Brent crude prices traded at $35 after global oil prices slid at the same time the pandemic hit. The measure is set to last through 2020.
- On May 5, the government announced it would receive a $4 billion loan from the Inter-American Development Bank, rolled out over four years, to mitigate economic impacts from the pandemic.
Spread
- January 19: 191,090 confirmed cases, 9,722 deaths
- January 12: 176,761 confirmed cases, 9,454 deaths
- December 15: 147,716 confirmed cases, 9,026 deaths
- November 17: 143,473 confirmed cases, 8,866 deaths
- October 20: 140,037 confirmed cases, 8,526 deaths
- September 22: 131,453 confirmed cases, 7,693 deaths
- August 25: 110,999 confirmed cases, 4,664 deaths
- August 4: 83,361 confirmed cases, 3,320 deaths
- July 7: 41,545 confirmed cases, 1,530 deaths
- June 9: 14,644 confirmed cases, 487 deaths
- May 12: 2,964 confirmed cases, 128 deaths
- April 14: 397 confirmed cases, 28 deaths
- March 29: First death
- March 17: 12 confirmed cases
- March 10: First two confirmed cases
- Then-Health Minister Aníbal Cruz confirmed the first two cases on March 10. Both involved women in their 60s who had traveled to Italy.
- Cruz confirmed the country’s first COVID-19 death, of a 78-year-old woman, on March 29.
- On July 9, then-interim President Jeanine Añez confirmed she was one of 1,129 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 that day and was going into a 14-day quarantine. On July 27, she announced that she’d recovered and would be returning to her regular duties. As an interim president with no appointed interim vice president, it’s not clear constitutionally who would have taken over if she’d become too ill to carry out her duties.
- The virus also hit Añez’s cabinet directly: 11 of 17 ministers had tested positive for the virus by August 3. By that day, two had returned to work, one was out of an intensive care unit (ICU), a couple others were undergoing treatment, and the rest remained under quarantine at home.
- Ex-minister and Senator Eugenio Rojas was one of 86 virus-confirmed deaths on July 30. In his last tweet, published five days earlier, he wrote, “There are no life-saving COVID-19 medications, no attention in clinics and hospitals. Traditional medicine isn’t sufficient. … For the love of God, Añez, do something.”
- Former President Evo Morales tested positive for COVID-19, his office confirmed on January 12. A week later, he tweeted that he was feeling well while receiving treatment at a private clinic in Cochabamba.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: Bolivia will receive 3.6 million doses of a vaccine for free via the WHO’s COVAX initiative, 5 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine from India’s Serum Institute, and 5.2 million doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. President Luis Arce plans to personally receive the Russian vaccine in late January, when an initial shipment is expected to arrive. Combined, the doses will be enough to vaccinate about 6.9 million people; Bolivia has an estimated population of 11.7 million. An estimated 31 percent of the population is considered at-risk.
- Reopening plan: Bolivia began to relax its national quarantine measures on May 11.
- Since July 1, Bolivian workers have been able to return to the job site for up to eight hours per day, per a series of continuing resolutions from the Labor Ministry.
- La Paz began opening up again on the weekends as of September 12, with most regular activities (food services, markets and shopping centers, and driving) permitted for at least seven hours per day. After an initial, gradual reopening began June 1, La Paz city officials implemented restrictions once again on June 22 when cases spiked and several hospitals in the greater metropolitan area announced they were partially closing over lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) for staff.
- On May 25, the government sealed off the city of Trinidad, which had 16.6 percent of nationwide cases (and a sixth of the population of La Paz), for one week beginning June 1. A 2017 government survey found that only about 29 percent of the city’s residents had access to sanitation services and 56 percent to running water.
- Mitigation measures: Arce issued a slew of measures on January 16 meant to limit mobility and enforce social distancing, but stopped short of declaring a health emergency, via executive decree. The interim Añez government declared a national state of emergency on March 11, a health emergency on March 17, and instituted a full national quarantine beginning March 22. The interim Añez administration adopted a resolution on February 7 that removed a requirement that the government publicly disclose information regarding contracts signed in the event of a “disaster and/or emergency,” local media reported on May 27.
- Travel and border restrictions: After Añez initially closed all of Bolivia’s land borders except to returning citizens and residents and suspended international flights on March 19, she then closed the borders to all on March 25. While close to 5,000 Bolivians successfully returned home from Chile during the quarantine, at least 700 remained as of June 3 in border camps in Iquique, petitioning to be allowed back into their country. The situation has raised questions about the right of return. The government set up an isolation camp in April in the border town of Pisiga, through which successive groups of a few hundred Bolivians quarantine for 14 days and then are released to their hometowns. Bolivia’s Foreign Ministry signed an agreement with the International Organization for Migration on April 1 through which pregnant women and children at the border are provided food and lodging.
- School closings and restrictions: Bolivia’s Education Ministry suspended all in-person classes indefinitely on March 12. Then on August 2, the ministry announced the entire school year—which was to end in November—was cancelled, citing difficulties in reaching students in rural areas with little internet access. The UN asked the government to reverse the decision. Over 93 percent of Bolivian students said they were learning “nothing” or “close to nothing,” with four in 10 students saying they had no internet access, according to a UNICEF study published June 20. Some 40 percent of university students said their school was not offering online classes. Education reform has since become a campaign topic, with proposals from free internet for students to teaching via television and radio.
- Other updates:
- On August 26, the country’s electoral board published health protocols for the October 18 general elections, which include: adding more polling stations, expanding voting hours, designating times for people to vote on election day based on their ID number, and no open businesses within 100 meters of polling stations. Voting is obligatory for all citizens ages 18 to 70. Additionally, as being a poll worker is a civic duty in Bolivia, the board will call about 200,000 voters ages 18 to 50 by lottery to staff and run polling centers on election day.
- Movement toward Socialism (MAS) protests and blockades during the first two weeks of August shut down highways in six of Bolivia’s nine departments, and in some cases, prohibited the delivery of oxygen tanks. On August 10, the Añez administration filed a claim with the La Paz prosecutor general’s office accusing former President Morales, presidential candidate Arce, and nine other party leaders with fomenting “terrorism, genocide, and other crimes against health” via the protests.
- Bolivia’s special general elections were pushed back to October 18, the national electoral board announced on July 23. This is the second time the elections, originally scheduled for May 3, have been postponed due to the pandemic. While 64 percent of voters supported pushing the elections back to lessen coronavirus spread in one poll, some in the opposition are resistant to any moves that prolong Añez’s caretaker presidency. MAS announced it would go on indefinite strike beginning August 3 and, along with union leaders, held a socially not-distanced rally in El Alto on July 28 asking election officials to reinstate the previously agreed to September 6 date.
- On May 20, Añez removed then-Health Minister Marcelo Navajas, who was subsequently arrested, over his apparent involvement in the $4.7 million purchase of 170 faulty breathing machines and named Eidy Roca, a surgeon and public health official, in his place. Navajas, a pulmonologist, was sworn in as Bolivia’s health minister on April 8, after Cruz stepped down for personal reasons. Authorities also arrested two consultants for the Inter-American Development Bank in the early morning on May 20 and two Health Ministry directors the day prior over their alleged involvement in the affair. The government froze the remaining 50 percent of the payment in question.
- On May 22, the judge overseeing the investigation into the breathing machines was also arrested for having “possible bias” after he overturned the pretrial detention of a suspect in the case. The arrest happened without a warrant or judge’s order but on an “in flagrante” basis, something Human Rights Watch’s José Miguel Vivanco called “madness,” since it could plausibly allow the government to arrest any judge who rules contrary to its interests.
- Artists voiced concern over a decree signed by Añez on May 7 that, while about government funding for cancer treatments during the pandemic, also includes a line that says that anybody who “incites non-compliance” with the decree or who disseminates information of any kind, including “written, print, artistic” media, that “puts public health at risk” will be subject to criminal prosecution.
- During the pandemic, Añez has called for Bolivians to pray and fast and spent an estimated $15,000 to send four helicopters to fly over and bless four cities, aggravating concerns about her blurring the separation between church and state.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: In a semiannual report released April 12, the World Bank projected the Bolivian economy will contract by 3.4 percent in 2020, its worst performance in 34 years and down from the Bank’s prior projection of 3.6 percent growth.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: In one of his first acts as president, on November 13 Luis Arce approved a plan to issue stimulus checks totalling $145 to certain vulnerable groups of the Bolivian population, including low-income women, the homeless, and those with disabilities. The funds will be distributed over 90 days beginning in December.
- Arce, who was Morales’ longtime economy minister, also plans to pursue three other measures through the legislature—lowering credit card interest rates, a tax rebate for low-income Bolivians, and increased property taxes—among a host of other proposals.
- On June 24, the interim government launched a new national jobs plan via executive decree that aims to create and preserve a total of 3 million jobs by giving out a total of $3.2 billion via banks. The total timeframe for the project is unspecified, but is supposed to start by spending about $15 million per month to create 50,000 jobs.
- On March 17, the Bolivian Senate passed a law that allows for a “financial pause” on all payments for loans under roughly $10,000, flexibilization for loans over $10,000, and a restructuring once the health crisis is over.
- On June 30, the Bolivian Congress passed a bill that cuts rents by 50 percent during quarantine. The measure applies retroactively to when the health emergency first went into effect on March 17 and will last for three months after quarantine is lifted in various municipalities. The measure also provides for a 50 percent cut to property taxes for property owners. On July 13, Añez referred the bill to the country’s constitutional tribunal to review its constitutionality.
- Social programs:
- Arce pledged on October 19, the day after he emerged as the likely winner of Bolivia’s special presidential election, that the first action if and when he takes office will be to approve an anti-hunger bonus, which would distribute $145 to every Bolivian over 18 years old not currently receiving a government or private-sector salary.
- The families of close to 2.5 million students had received checks of roughly $72 per student, intended to cover expenses for three months, as of mid-May. GDP per capita in Bolivia was about $300 per month in 2018, according to the World Bank.
- Bolivia’s Chamber of Deputies passed a measure on April 28 that would incentivize landlords via tax breaks to defer up to 50 percent of rental fees for non-salaried tenants, effective from March 15 through the end of the health emergency. Tenants—residential, commercial, and industrial—would have to pay back the deferred rent beginning in January 2021. Landlords are not allowed to evict anyone for the remainder of 2020.
- On March 18, Añez announced that utility services can’t be suspended, some corporate taxes will be deferred, and families will receive a $75 credit in April for each public-school student in the home. Bolivians won’t have to start making credit payments again until six months after the health emergency ends, per a May 13 court order. On April 14, Añez announced the government will subsidize payrolls for all micro-, small- and medium-sized businesses for two months. As a consequence, Labor Minister Óscar Mercado said the following day there was “no reason” anybody should be fired from those businesses, but he did not say if there would be penalties for firms that did let workers go.
- Other updates:
- Moody’s downgraded Bolivia from B2 to B1 on September 22, and changed the outlook from stable to negative, citing an “erosion of fiscal and foreign exchange reserve buffers” and reduced hydrocarbon sector demand, among other factors.
- Unemployment in Bolivia hit 11.8 percent in July, according to the national statistics agency. The agency’s director said that, if there’d been no pandemic, they’d expect that figure to be at 3.9 percent.
- A private-sector consortium donated $3.2 million to the government’s relief efforts on April 6. The group included members from the banking, mining, and beverage sectors, as well as a personal donation from businessman Samuel Doria Medina, who is also the running mate for Añez in the postponed special presidential election.
Spread
- January 19: 8,573,864 confirmed cases, 211,491 deaths
- January 12: 8,195,637 confirmed cases, 204,690 deaths
- December 15: 6,970,034 confirmed cases, 182,799 deaths
- November 17: 5,911,758 confirmed cases, 166,699 deaths
- October 20: 5,273,954 confirmed cases, 154,837 deaths
- September 22: 4,591,604 confirmed cases, 138,108 deaths
- August 25: 3,669,995 confirmed cases, 116,580 deaths
- August 4: 2,801,921 confirmed cases, 95,819 death
- July 7: 1,668,589 confirmed cases, 66,741 deaths
- June 9: 739,503 confirmed cases, 38,406 deaths
- May 12: 177,589 confirmed cases, 12,400 deaths
- April 14: 25,262 confirmed cases, 1,532 deaths
- March 17: 291 confirmed cases, first death
- March 10: 34 confirmed cases
- February 26: First confirmed case
- Brazil confirmed Latin America’s first case on February 26: a 61-year-old man who had recently returned to São Paulo from a business trip to northern Italy.
- On March 17, Brazil confirmed its first death from the virus involving a 62-year-old man in São Paulo.
- After President Jair Bolsonaro tested negative for COVID-19 on July 25—having tested positive in three previous tests over the course of the prior three weeks—his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, tested positive for COVID-19 on August 25. Secretary of the Presidency Jorge Oliveira confirmed he contracted the virus on August 4, now the eighth minister in Bolsonaro’s cabinet to test positive. Bolsonaro’s Chief of Staff Walter Braga Netto also confirmed he was positive for the virus on August 3, and on July 30, First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro tested positive for the virus as well as science and technology minister and the transparency, supervision, and control minister. The ministers of citizenship and education each announced they tested positive for the virus on July 20. Two other ministers tested positive in March after accompanying Bolsonaro on a trip to Florida.
- A study by 10 institutions, including Imperial College of London and Oxford University, conducted between December 15 and 23, 2020 in Manaus (the capital of the Amazonas state) found a new COVID-19 variant. Of the 31 samples studied, 41 percent tested positive for the new strain of the virus. Concerns over the new variant arose as 16 patients in hospitals of the northern state asphyxiated to death due to lack of oxygen.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: On January 17, the country began vaccinating citizens in São Paulo with China’s Sinovac vaccine, and starting January 18 the state will be vaccinating healthcare workers. Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello announced on the same day that distribution to states would begin January 20. The government released its national vaccination four-phase plan on December 12, 2020, which aims to inoculate 24 percent of the population by June 2021. On November 26, Bolsonaro said he will not take the vaccine.
- Despite Brazil being one of the hardest hit countries by the pandemic, its national regulator Anvisa only approved emergency use on January 17 for any vaccine—those from AstraZeneca and Sinovac. On January 12, São Paulo’s Butantan Institute released corrected efficacy data for the Chinese Sinovac vaccine CoronaVac, which stands at 50.4 percent when considering all participants, after previously reporting a 78 percent efficacy rate which only pertained to mild and severe cases. On January 5, Brazil’s Health and Foreign Ministries announced that the Rio de Janeiro health center Fiocruz is in talks with India’s Serum Institute to receive shipments of AstraZeneca-Oxford’s vaccine. This came after Anvisa approved a Fiocruz request to import 2 million doses of the not yet authorized AstraZeneca vaccine. In December 2020, Russia requested regulatory approval from Anvisa to launch Phase 3 trials of its Sputnik V vaccine. On December 8, Brazil signed a letter of intent with Pfizer and BioNTech to acquire 70 million vaccine doses in 2021. On December 3, the Senate approved the purchase of 100 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, which are set to arrive in the first half of 2021. On November 17, the Health Ministry announced it would purchase Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine once it receives approval from the national regulatory agency, Anvisa. This came two days after Governor João Doria announced that São Paulo began building a facility to produce 100 million doses of the Chinese vaccine. The state has an agreement to receive 6 million doses by the end of the year. On June 26, Bolsonaro set aside $356 million to buy the first 100 million doses of the vaccine and support domestic production, and General Pazuello forecast the vaccine would be ready at the start of 2021. Despite being a center for vaccine trials, some experts reveal it could take Brazil between two and 10 years to produce vaccines domestically due to the difficulty of technology transfers and the country’s under-invested production facilities.
- Reopening plan: In Brazil, reopening measures are determined on a state level. Per a January 15 status report, the São Paulo state government announced that 90 percent of the state was in Phase 3 of five, after a state-wide quarantine ended on January 4. On May 27, authorities announced a five-level plan to reopen commercial activity beginning June 1, to be revised according to contagion levels. Rio de Janeiro public schools closed on December 6 with no reopening date set, while shopping centers are to remain open 24 hours a day during the holidays in an attempt to try and avoid large crowds. Rio de Janeiro authorities announced that on November 3 the city went into its final reopening phase, which allows the full reopening of beaches, restaurants, and bars with touchless payment systems, and dance floors at bars and nightclubs. Shops and businesses may also go back to operating without hourly restrictions. The only measures still in effect are social distancing of 1.5 meters between individuals or groups (reduced from 2 meters), and 3 square meters per client in stores and gyms (down from 4 square meters). Rio de Janeiro state authorities reopened tourism on August 12, including prime tourist spots at 50 percent visitor capacity. State authorities announced a gradual six-phase reopening plan to start on June 2. On October 9, Brasília officials announced shopping malls and street businesses could reopen without hourly restrictions, and restaurants no longer have a six-person-per-table limit, though facemasks are still required in public generally. The capital also allowed business conferences of up to 100 people to take place starting September 22, up to 300 people beginning October 27, and up to 500 people as of November 17. On July 2, Brasília announced a reopening schedule for the capital under strict health guidelines, including opening commercial activities on July 7 such as beauty parlors, barber shops, and gyms, while bars and restaurants reopened on July 15.
- Mitigation measures:
- On June 12, the Health Ministry announced it registered more than 970,000 health professionals in the Brazil Counts on Me plan to recruit medical students and health professionals to help on the pandemic frontlines, including those studying to be doctors, nurses, nursing technicians, and pharmacists. This was on the same day that Brazil confirmed the world’s second-highest COVID-19 death toll after the United States after counting 900 deaths in 24 hours.
- Bolsonaro and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump issued a joint statement announcing that the United States would send 2 million doses of the disputed hydroxychloroquine drug to Brazil for prophylactic and therapeutic treatments and that the two countries will conduct clinical trials on the drug’s efficacy.
- On May 21, at least eight states said they will not follow expanded May 20 guidelines issued by the Health Ministry, which is temporarily being headed by General Pazuello. Those guidelines encourage the use of antimalarial drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat patients with mild COVID-19 symptoms. This came after pressure from Bolsonaro to push the drugs became a point of contention between the president and his prior top health officials. Bolsonaro removed Luiz Henrique Mandetta on April 16 and replaced him with Nelson Teich, who in turn resigned on May 15, after both clashed with the president over the guidelines recommending hydroxychloroquine for patients with mild symptoms.
- On April 15, the Supreme Court affirmed that states and municipalities have the autonomy to regulate social distancing measures.
- Travel and border restrictions: On December 23, 2020, Brazil shut its land and sea borders once again after reopening them three months before. The measure also demanded that, starting December 30, nationals and foreigners must present a negative PCR done no more than 72 hours upon entry via air travel. Entry to the country hinges on foreigners purchasing valid health insurance covering the entirety of their stay. The United Kingdom banned travel from Brazil on January 14 due to concerns over the new Brazilian variant. Washington restricted the entry of non-U.S. citizens from Brazil into the country starting May 26.
- School closings and restrictions: The São Paulo state government announced on September 18 that public and private schools may resume in-person classes on October 7, with the exception of lower and middle public schools, which will reopen on November 3. That said, local authorities will have the final word on if/when to open. On September 21, the Federal District of Brasília reopened schools, and on August 10, the state of Amazonas resumed in-person classes. While some states suspended in-person classes as early as March 12, school was suspended nationally on March 26, per Unesco’s COVID-19 impact on education tracker. The National Council of Education Secretaries published a document on June 26 issuing protocols for the eventual reopening of school. On June 30, the Chamber of Deputies approved a provisional measure adjusting the minimum number of days in the school year due to the pandemic. Preschools are not required to meet the 800 hours and 200 days of school per year minimum while middle and high schools must complete the 800 hours but not 200 days.
- Other updates:
- A December Datafolha poll showed 37 percent of Brazilians see Bolsonaro’s administration as great or good, at or around August levels, while 32 percent see it as bad or terrible, compared to 34 percent four months earlier.
- Brazil held its first round of rescheduled municipal elections on November 15. The elections were originally scheduled for October 4, but Congress postponed them in July due to the pandemic. Runoffs will take place where necessary on November 29.
- In an Ibope poll released September 24, 40 percent of Brazilians rated Bolsonaro’s government as “good/great”—the highest level since he took office in January 2019—while 29 percent rated his government as “bad/terrible.”
- The Supreme Court ruled on August 5 that the government must take measures to prevent COVID-19 spread in vulnerable indigenous communities and gave Bolsonaro 30 days to come up with a plan. On July 8, Bolsonaro vetoed 16 sections of a law that mandated the government provide drinking water, disinfectants, and hospital bed quotas for indigenous peoples during the pandemic, while leaving the proposed testing supplies, ambulance services, and medical equipment. On June 30, the military delivered medical supplies and 13,500 chloroquine pills by helicopter to Amazonian indigenous groups at the Venezuelan border. This came after, on April 10, the government announced measures to protect over 800,000 members of indigenous communities from the virus.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: The Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean projects Brazil’s economy will contract 5.3 percent in 2020, according to a December update. On September 1, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported a 9.7 percent GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020, compared to a 5.9 percent contraction in the first quarter.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- On December 11, the Brazilian Congress failed to pass an extension to emergency aid before going into recess, and will now take it up in the new year.
- On October 30, the government announced that public spending to mitigate the economic effects of COVID-19 reached $116 billion in the first three quarters of 2020.
- Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, speaking alongside the president on August 19, was optimistic about the country’s economic recovery and said that financing for company salary payments will more than double over the course of the year to reach more than 200,000 employers. The economy minister also said the government will offer credit between $36 and $54 billion for small businesses by December 2020. Previously, however, as the economy heads into recession, the Central Bank’s rating committee, known as Copom, said on June 15 it will lower interest rates by 0.75 points on June 17 to 2.25 percent, where they will stay until the end of the year. Copom also said it plans to gradually increase the rates, with the goal of ending 2021 at 3.0 percent. On May 6 the Central Bank cut the interest rate by 75 basis points to what was a new low of 3 percent—the largest rate slash since October 2017.
- On June 8, development bank BNDES suspended interest and debt payments owed by states and municipalities through 2020 due to the economic impacts of COVID-19, a measure that could save states up to $790 million. This is additional to the roughly $388 million in credit loans the bank announced it would give out to the health sector in March.
- On May 29, the Central Bank’s National Monetary Council extended a trio of measures through the end of the year: caps on banks increasing dividends, salary reductions for banks’ senior staff, and limits on financial institutions’ share buybacks.
- On May 27, Bolsonaro signed a law suspending local governments’ debt payments to the federal government, as well as credit renegotiations, during the state of emergency. The president gave a line-item veto, however, to a section of the bill that proposed salary increases for government employees, ruling out pay raises until December 2021, with the exception of frontline healthcare workers.
- On May 19, the president approved a law creating credit lines for micro and small businesses. These loans can be for up to 30 percent of the business’ 2019 profit and have a 36-month amortization period.
- On April 22, the government announced the $4.7 billion “Pro-Brazil” economic plan, which will roll out in October 2020. No members of the Economy Ministry attended the announcement.
- Social programs:
- On September 22, the Economy Ministry announced a $157 billion budget deficit this year after calculating the extended emergency aid packages announced on September 1 to informal and unemployed workers, as well as beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família welfare program through the end of the year. August 20 Economy Ministry reports show that unemployment insurance claims in the first two weeks of August fell 23.2 percent from the second half of July. The Ministry previously reported that these payments would total over $28 billion instead of the original $18.2 billion. Ministry reports show that unemployment insurance claims in the first two weeks of May rose by over 76 percent compared to the same period in 2019.
- On May 15, Bolsonaro vetoed an April 22 Senate-approved expansion to the emergency universal basic income plan, first signed by the president on March 31, that made informal workers who are not registered in the Citizenship Ministry eligible for benefits. The expansion to include teenage mothers and single parents remains. The measure allows companies to reduce worker salaries for three months or suspend them for two months, and the government will subsidize those affected proportional to the unemployment benefits they can claim.
- On May 7, Congress passed the constitutional amendment—previously passed by the House on April 3—creating a “war budget” to separate COVID-19 spending from the federal budget and granting the Central Bank bond-buying power to help calm financial markets. The measure is set to last until the end to the state of calamity declared on March 20, allowing for additional federal funds to combat the pandemic. When the Chamber of Deputies first passed the amendment in April, the government also freed up roughly $1.8 billion to support public health, adding about $2.7 billion more to the healthcare budget. The government, when announcing the state of calamity, said it could result in a deficit of over $30 billion, above the predetermined ceiling of roughly $24 billion.
- On April 27, Brazil’s bank industry group Febraban said that financial institutions have postponed roughly $3.91 billion in debt payments thus far that are due in the next few months to help consumers and companies amid the pandemic. In March, the group’s top lenders said they would offer a grace period of two to six months to pay debt installments. On April 7, the federal government added $4 billion into workers’ severance fund, making possible a withdrawal of $200 per worker, available on June 15. Guedes had announced a stimulus measure on March 16 of over $29 billion to accelerate social assistance payments, defer corporate taxes, and ease severance fund access.
- Other updates:
- On November 26, the Economy Ministry said Brazil hit a record in formal job creation with 400,000 new jobs in October, compared to 71,000 new jobs in the same month in 2019.
- On September 28, the government reported a budget deficit of $17.1 billion in August, compared to $9.3 billion the same month last year. The country is on course to post a deficit of $153.5 billion for the whole year, and the IMF projects public debt to jump to around 100 percent of GDP in 2020, according to a report released October 14.
- On September 4, Brazil expanded its 2020 government primary deficit from 11 to 12.1 percent, accounting for the extension of emergency aid checks through the year, announced three days earlier.
- Brazil lost 1.2 million formal jobs in the first six months of the year, according to figures from the Economy Ministry released on July 28. Services activity, which accounts for roughly 70 percent of economic activity, fell 11.7 percent in April following a 6.9-point fall in March according to the IBGE, in the sharpest decline recorded since the start of this reporting in January 2011. A June 3 report also showed that industrial production reached record-low levels with an 18.8 percent decline in April following a 9 percent fall in March.
- On May 22, the Economy Ministry reported that national debt will hit record levels in 2020 due to the health crisis, with gross national debt reaching 93.5 percent of GDP, and net debt at 67.6 percent of GDP. A day earlier, the Economy Ministry announced that pandemic-related measures will cost Brazil roughly $62 billion on 2020’s primary budget balance.
- On May 8, the IBGE reported that due to the recent drop in oil prices, Brazil’s consumer price inflation fell 0.31 percent in April, the lowest in 20 years.
- On May 5, Fitch Ratings downgraded Brazil to a negative outlook from stable, given worsening economic projections given the pandemic.
- On April 4, Guedes announced the advancing of 2020 holidays—with the exception of good Friday on April 10, worker’s day on May 1, and Christmas on December 25—for economic activity to recover faster once quarantine is lifted.
- The Health Ministry estimated the pandemic would cost the healthcare system just under $2 billion.
Spread
- January 19: 677,151 confirmed cases, 17,573 deaths
- January 12: 649,135 confirmed cases, 17,182 deaths
- December 15: 575,329 confirmed cases, 15,949 deaths
- November 17: 533,610 confirmed cases, 14,883 deaths
- October 20: 494,478 confirmed cases, 13,702 deaths
- September 22: 448,523 confirmed cases, 12,321 deaths
- August 25: 402,365 confirmed cases, 10,990 deaths
- August 4: 364,723 confirmed cases, 9,792 deaths
- July 7: 303,083 confirmed cases, 6,573 deaths
- June 9: 148,496 confirmed cases, 2,475 deaths
- May 12: 34,381 confirmed cases, 347 deaths
- April 14: 8,273 confirmed cases, 94 deaths
- March 21: First death
- March 17: 238 confirmed cases
- March 10: 17 confirmed cases
- March 3: First confirmed case
- Chile confirmed its first case on March 3, which involved a 33-year-old male doctor who had travelled to Asia.
- The health minister announced the first death from the virus on March 21, involving an 83-year-old woman.
- On April 27, the Health Ministry outlined the three types of cases to record: suspected cases showing symptoms, confirmed cases after a positive test, and patients who were infected but were asymptomatic. This came after an April 26 Health Ministry COVID-19 Advisory Council report widening definitions for suspected and confirmed cases.
- A June 16 Health Ministry announcement found that doctors must update COVID-19 case counts more vigilantly on the Ministry’s platform after concerns about delays that may be causing data underreporting. The Ministry believes the confirmed count to be about 30,000 cases higher, mostly corresponding to the Santiago metropolitan region.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: Chile’s vaccination campaign began on December 24 when it received its first 10,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Chile expects to receive 240,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of January. It also expects the first batch of the Sinovac vaccine after January 20. As of January 19, 29,368 people have received the first dose of the vaccine while 8,360 people received the second dose. On December 11, Science Minister Andrés Cuove confirmed the country plans to immunize approximately 16 million people, 5.8 million of them by the first quarter of 2021. This initial stage will prioritize workers in the health and transportation sectors, as well as the police and Armed Forces.
- While Chile has pre-acquired the greatest vaccine stockpile among Latin American countries, China’s Sinovac accounts for three quarters of the doses, which have yet to be proven effective. On January 14, Chile confirmed that despite its relatively low efficacy rate, they would continue with their plan to administer 60 million doses of the Sinovac vaccine.
- The government has also signed agreements with AstraZeneca-Oxford and Janssen, for a total of four vaccine deals. Chile’s regulatory body is still weighing using the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine as an emergency backup.
- A bill to make a coronavirus vaccine mandatory was introduced in Chile’s Congress on January 5 by the Christian Democratic Party. Several vaccines, including smallpox and whooping cough, are already mandatory.
- Reopening plan: A 7 percent surge in COVID-19 cases on January 18 prompted the government to revert thirteen regions to the transition stage, Phase 2. Only one region advanced to the preparation stage, Phase 3. The metropolitan region of Santiago remains in the transition phase as cases there stabilize. Following a 53 percent surge in COVID-19 cases between November 14 and December 10 in the metropolitan region of Santiago, the government reissued total lockdowns on weekends (Phase 2). As such, only essential shops can open on the weekend, restaurants are limited to outdoor seating and at 25 percent capacity, and interregional travel is prohibited. The capital is one of 11 regions seeing cases rise, while only five regions are seeing case counts drop and are advancing to either Phase 2, 3, or 4. On July 20, the government announced a new “Step by Step” reopening plan based on a district’s infection rate. The plan’s five phases are: quarantine, transition, preparation, initial opening, and advanced opening. By November 19, 63 districts were in stage four, the initial opening phase, where restaurants may operate at 50 percent capacity, cinemas may reopen at 50 percent capacity without food sales, and gyms may open at a 10-person limit abiding by a two-meter distance rule. In October, the majority of the country was in the third phase, the preparation step, and some districts in the south and central regions had moved into the initial opening phase. On October 19, 29 districts in the Santiago metropolitan region went into Phase 4.
- This map demarcates the phase of reopening of each district and region.
- Mitigation measures:
- Health Minister Enrique Paris announced that the nation’s health alert, which first went into effect February 8, 2020, will remain active for at least six months longer.
- After the first case of the British variant was recorded on December 29, Chile reinstated its mandatory quarantine period for anyone entering the country.
- Chile tested 205 per every 1,000 Chileans as of October 19, the highest testing rate in Latin America.
- As part of the Step by Step Plan, the government announced on August 3 measures for in-person work for those unable to work remotely, including staggered start, end, and lunch hours to minimize close contact. The Health Ministry also announced a strengthening of its strategy to test, trace, and isolate cases starting July 4, including a task force that will go into communities with limited access to medical attention and administer more tests, a strategy to track down those who may have had contact with a confirmed case in order encourage isolation more quickly, and a plan for more sanitary residences for people who may not be able to isolate at home.
- The Health Ministry announced on June 14 it was adding probable COVID-19-related deaths to those confirmed by a positive PCR test. This came after on June 8, the Health Ministry updated its methodology to report COVID-19 related deaths according to the date and place of death accounted by the Civil Registry, and not by the attending physician. This was after the Health Ministry announced on June 1 the official death count would now include suspected COVID-19-related deaths, with or without the presence of a positive test result.
- On May 10, the Health Ministry decided to use the Air Force to bring patients to other regions outside the Santiago metropolitan area to avoid any facility exceeding 80 percent of care capacity. On the same day, the Health Ministry announced the start of rapid testing for health personnel to detect antibodies against the virus. Then-Health Minister Jaime Mañalich said the government would only give out discharge cards for those infected who have completed the two-week isolation period. The government is following a method of “strategic and dynamic quarantine,” and in an April 12 interview with Canal T13, President Sebastián Piñera said that a total nationwide quarantine is “not sustainable” as the government cannot assure the production and supply of basic goods and services to those under quarantine.
- Starting April 8, the use of protective masks became mandatory on public and private transport across Chile, a measure monitored by health authorities as well as the Chilean Armed Forces and the national police.
- Travel and border restrictions: On November 23, Chile’s Arturo Merino Benítez International airport opened to foreign travelers, who must take a PCR test at least 72 hours before their flight and test negative, travel with health insurance, complete a Health Passport, and update a survey tracking their whereabouts for 14 days upon arrival. Those arriving through December 3 from countries the WHO deems “high risk” must quarantine for 14 days in Chile. Starting September 28, the government allowed domestic travel between districts in the last three phases of the reopening plan. The government had closed all borders as of March 18, allowing only Chilean citizens to reenter the country with an obligatory two-week quarantine.
- Interregional travel is prohibited from any district or region still in Phase 1 or 2.
- On December 21, Chile banned travel to and from the United Kingdom.
- School closings and restrictions: On November 19, the Education Ministry announced that the 2021 school year would officially begin March 1 with in-person classes. By the time of the announcement, 53 percent of schools—or 755 out of 1,424—had returned to in-person classes to complete the 2020 school year.The Education Ministry announced on June 12 that schools will remain closed until further notice, and they are working with the Health Ministry to assess when schools can safely reopen. The government first suspended in-person classes in schools on March 15.
- Other updates:
- A December 27 Cadem poll showed Piñera’s approval rating rose slightly from 14 percent to 17 percent from a poll two weeks earlier; 70 percent disapprove of his government.
- On October 8, Reuters reported that Chilean scientists are investigating a possible COVID-19 mutation in the southern Patagonia region of Magallanes, which has seen a large second wave of infections in late September and early October.
- On June 13, Piñera named Dr. Enrique Paris the new health minister, after Mañalich resigned amid rising pressures to revise the methodology of COVID-19 cases. Mañalich acknowledged the country “requires new leadership” in the next phase of its pandemic response.
- In a May 17 televised address, Piñera announced new measures, including: distributing 2.5 million food baskets to low-income families, establishing two new funding institutions to make loans more readily available for small businesses, implementing a mental health plan, increasing the number of shelters for patients who may not have appropriate conditions for isolation at home to complete quarantine if known to have the virus, and committing to a better system of releasing more localized epidemiological information. In addition, political parties and the Electoral Service on March 19 agreed to postpone the constitutional referendum to October 25.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: ECLAC’s December 2020 report projects a 6 percent contraction for the country. On December 9, Chile’s Central Bank revised its forecasted GDP contraction for the year to fall between 5.75 and 6.25 percent. A September 2 Central Bank report showed a lighter GDP contraction for 2020 of between 4.5 and 5.5 percent, compared to a previous June projection of 5.5 to 7.5 percent. A June 8 World Bank report projected Chile’s GDP will contract 4.3 percent in 2020.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- On January 14, the state-owned copper producer, Codelco, announced it would be reenacting precautionary measures on its sites, including a reduction in on-site personnel.
- On December 4, Congress approved a bill allowing for a second 10 percent early withdrawal from pensions funds, which led to more than 3.5 million Chileans making the requests digitally on the first day the pension funds made their online portals accessible.
- On November 18, a Senate commission approved the possibility of making another 10 percent of pension funds available for early disbursement.
- Some 14 million Chileans receive some form of aid, according to Piñera, who spoke about the government’s support to the middle class on August 14. The president said that to this date, over one million people received the Middle Class Plan’s $626 bonus approved by Congress on July 30 to those making between $525 and $2,000 monthly in 2019, as well as those who had a 30 percent or higher pay decrease during the pandemic. He also announced that the government approved over 550,000 requests for small loans of up to $815. Previously, Piñera announced on July 5 a new $1.5 billion stimulus package aiming to help 1 million middle class families, including zero-interest loans, subsidized rents, and mortgage deferments for up to six months.
- On August 11, the Finance Ministry announced a roughly $69 million cut to nine regions’ budgets in what the Ministry called a “reassignment” of money from areas with slower spending rates to others that are running low on pandemic-related funds.
- Though the president opposed a pension reform measure that allows citizens to take out 10 percent of their savings in the national Pension Fund Administration system, he signed it into law on July 24, a day after Congress passed it. Over 80 percent of Chileans support the measure, per a July Cadem poll, which gives Chileans ready access to cash to deal with the economic impact of the pandemic.
- Piñera announced the distribution of an additional $120 million for municipalities across the country to fight the virus and keep public services operational as part of the Solidarity Municipal Fund. This sum is a 20 percent increase from initial funds distributed in May.
- On June 14, the president detailed a $12 billion emergency plan after the bill passed Congress that morning in a bipartisan agreement. The plan includes funds for the Emergency Family Income Project, local governments, civil society organizations, increased unemployment protections, and health services.
- The government announced new measures for economic relief on May 18 to small- and medium-sized businesses, aiming to give $150 million to 180,000 businesses nationwide. On April 28, Piñera announced a law freeing up to $24 billion for companies to access loans to benefit nearly 100 percent of Chile’s businesses, who provide 84 percent of employment. The credit line offers a period of 48 months for repayment at 0 percent real interest rates. On March 27, the government announced financial help to small companies by suspending stamp taxes—imposed on documents that show money lending operations—for six months and extending a credit line to public bank BancoEstado worth $500 million for emergency loans.
- On May 12, the Central Bank requested a flexible two-year IMF credit line of $23.8 billion. Finance Minister Ignacio Briones said the loan is to bolster the Central Bank’s “solid position” and would allow the financial institution to complement its international reserves.
- Previously on April 8, the government announced the second phase of the economic emergency plan with new measures aiding 2.6 million informal workers to be be rolled out in three ways: a $3 billion guarantee fund for small companies from BancoEstado, a fund of up to $2 billion for workers to access emergency jobs and benefits, and the implementation of entities to regulate the Central Bank’s liquidity facilities. Briones said the measure will put Chile’s fiscal deficit at 8 percent of GDP. The first phase of the plan was announced on March 19, using a special constitutional clause to free up nearly $11.7 billion without congressional approval, a measure equaling roughly 4.7 percent of annual GDP.
- The government announced on March 23 it would delay a 2020 bond issue of up to $8.7 billion to help finance the previously announced emergency package to protect jobs amid the coronavirus crisis.
- Social programs:
- On June 13, the Ministry of Social and Family Development announced the second distribution of food products to benefit over 3 million low-income Chileans under the Food for Chile program. The president announced the food campaign on May 18, with the aim to distribute 2.5 million food baskets across Chile. On June 16, Piñera signed into law a project widening the Emergency Family Income project that was announced on April 20 to complement wages for vulnerable families by up to roughly $500 per family with informal income and $125 for those with formal earnings. This extension of the economic relief measure may now reach up to 5.6 million Chileans—a 20 percent increase in outreach to 80 percent of the population.
- Previously on April 15, the government announced a $11.4-million Winter Plan to help people on the streets as the country enters the cold season in which the virus could spread more easily. The plan establishes 180 care centers, including 22 centers that will focus just on the elderly and vulnerable populations, as well as more than 1,000 ICU beds and 80 drive-by facilities that will be able to attend to over 4,000 people a day. This comes after an April 2 Health Ministry announcement for mandatory quarantine and health checkpoints to be established at 950 senior nursing facilities.
- On April 17, 2.7 million Chileans started receiving relief from the COVID-19 Bonus, approved on March 28, as part of an economic plan allowing low income families to delay utility payments without having services cut, providing $60 per dependent to each of these families, and passing job protection legislation for those who can’t work during quarantine.
- Other updates:
- Fitch Ratings Agency downgraded Chile from an A+ to A- standing on October 15 due to a destabilizing of public finances, largely resulting from greater government expenses to mitigate recent social unrest, and due to uncertainty given the nearing October 25 constitutional referendum. Also on October 15, the Central Bank announced it will maintain low interest rates at 0.5 percent given the pandemic.
- On August 3, the Central Bank announced that economic activity dropped 12.4 percent in June 2020 in comparison to the same month in 2019. May numbers showed a 13.5 percent drop compared to the previous year.
- On March 24, Piñera announced a new labor law regulating and facilitating remote work, including mandatory requirements that stipulate work vs. personal time.
- Also March 24, the government established a maximum cost of $30 for the COVID-19 test in private healthcare facilities.
Spread
- January 19: 1,939,071 confirmed cases, 49,402 deaths
- January 12: 1,816,082 confirmed cases, 46,782 deaths
- December 15: 1,444,646 confirmed cases, 39,356 deaths
- November 17: 1,211,128 confirmed cases, 34,381 deaths
- October 20: 974,139 confirmed cases, 29,272 deaths
- September 22: 777,537 confirmed cases, 24,570 deaths
- August 25: 562,128 confirmed cases, 17,889 deaths
- August 4: 334,979 confirmed cases, 11,315 deaths
- July 7: 124,494 confirmed cases, 4,359 deaths
- June 9: 42,078 confirmed cases, 1,372 deaths
- May 12: 12,272 confirmed cases, 493 deaths
- April 14: 2,979 confirmed cases, 127 deaths
- March 21: First death
- March 17: 75 confirmed cases
- March 10: 3 confirmed cases
- March 6: First confirmed case
- Colombia’s Health Ministry confirmed the country’s first case on March 6, involving a 19-year-old woman who returned to Bogotá from Milan.
- The country's first death from the virus was a 58-year-old taxi driver in Cartagena, who is believed to have contracted the disease from Italian tourists who were his passengers on March 4.
- On February 4, Colombia became the first country in Latin America able to offer testing for the novel coronavirus.
- President Iván Duque was tested for the virus after possible exposure on March 2 during a trip to Washington, DC. The result was negative.
- On March 21, Duque appointed former Commerce Minister Luis Guillermo Plata to lead coordination of the country’s coronavirus response.
- As of January 20, Colombia had the second-highest total number of confirmed cases in Latin America after Brazil, and the tenth-highest total in the world.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: Through purchases of Pfizer, AstraZeneca-Oxford, COVAX vaccines, Colombia had secured enough doses to vaccinate 29 million of the 50 million people in the country, Duque confirmed in a document published January 14. While the first vaccinations will roll out in the first quarter of 2021, the government says people at lower risk might not get the vaccine until 2022.
- Health Minister Fernando Ruiz tweeted on November 24 the country had secured 20 million doses, but three weeks later had offered no further details on the other 10 million doses. The lack of transparency irked Attorney General Fernando Carrillo, who on December 14 gave the Health Ministry three days to provide more clarity on the ministry’s negotiations to acquire more doses and the rollout plan.
- Reopening plan: Colombia is set to reopen on September 1, when the national quarantine expires after first going into effect on March 24. Some smaller municipalities with no reported cases of COVID-19 previously started to reopen on May 14. Duque is keeping the national health emergency in effect, meanwhile, and in Bogotá, Mayor Claudia López is implementing certain restrictions on when and to what capacity certain businesses will be allowed to operate.
- Cartagena is on the path to getting back to business, with nearly two dozen hotels receiving the green light to reopen by September 22.
- Cultural activities resumed in Bogotá on September 21. López initially began the capital’s reopening on June 15, with staggered work hours for construction, commercial centers, domestic, and informal workers. As cases climbed steadily and ICUs reached near capacity, however, López said 15 of Bogotá’s 20 districts will return to a strict quarantine for 15 days each between July 13 and August 23. She modified the plan on July 21 to place up to 5 million of the city’s 8 million residents under quarantine earlier in the schedule than originally planned, while ruling out a citywide quarantine.
- Colombian courts began to reopen on June 17, albeit with no public audiences and a priority on virtual hearings. Some wholesale and retail sectors reopened on May 11, and construction and manufacturing sectors have been operating since April 27.
- Mitigation measures: Duque first declared a national health emergency on March 12, an initial state of emergency on March 17, and a national quarantine on March 24. On May 6, Duque declared a second 30-day state of emergency; the Colombian Constitution allows no more than 90 days per year of rule by presidential decree. On May 19, Duque extended the national health emergency, in effect since March 12, through August 31.
- A Bogotá district court upheld a ruling on August 11 that extra quarantine restrictions for people over 70 years old were not legal, and that all adults must be subject to the same regulations irrespective of age. Since the state of emergency went into effect in March, senior citizens were required at various times to stay in their homes, while those 18 to 69 could go out during certain times of day. Among the appellants to challenge the extra restrictions were former Bogotá Mayor Maurice Armitage, ex-Vice President Humberto de la Calle, and former presidential candidate Clara López, who turned 70 in April.
- Bogotá began restricting movement by gender on April 13, with men going out on “odd” days and women on “even” days; trans and gender non-conforming individuals were allowed to go out with the gender with which they identify, which led to some reports of discrimination and violence.
- Travel and border restrictions: After initially closing the border with Venezuela on March 14, Duque closed all of Colombia’s borders and ports for entry as of March 17 at midnight, with only certain import shipments allowed. The entry ban applies equally to citizens as well as foreigners. The country’s borders remain closed, intermunicipal travel banned through June 30.
- Transportation Minister Ángela María Orozco said on May 20 that international flights would not resume before August 31.
- On June 23, Ecuador and Colombia announced a plan to allow nationals stranded in each other’s countries to return home via one land border crossing.
- Duque increased Colombia’s military presence along its southeastern border with Brazil in mid-May, after a surge of cases in its southernmost Amazonas province. The Colombian province shares a longer border with Peru, but that country has closed its borders completely.
- School closings and restrictions: The government suspended all in-person classes on March 16. Public schools and universities will continue to hold virtual classes through July 30.
- On August 11, Duque announced that, effective immediately, his government would subsidize “practically 100 percent” of the tuition of some 400,000 low-income students at public universities, and 70 percent of fees for another 169,000 students. He said the government was doing this as a way to lessen the hurdles introduced to learning by the pandemic.
- Other updates:
- On April 24, Colombia’s Attorney General’s office announced that it has opened 296 disciplinary proceedings against national, regional, and local officials over claims of misuse of government funds during the pandemic. A review by La Silla Vacía of 48 government contracts for basic food basket items signed during the crisis found that 6 times out of 10 the government overpaid for the products compared to national benchmark prices.
- The pandemic is exacerbating long-standing tensions over corruption, with high-profile confrontations between the governor of Magdalena and the national superintendent for health on May 12, as well as between the mayor of Cartagena and city councilmembers on April 13.
- Colombia’s Supreme Court began reviewing all 72 of the executive orders issued by Duque as of April 21 in response to the pandemic. The legal challenge was prompted by landlords who are contesting the freeze on rent hikes and evictions. Because of the constant stream of orders, decisions from the court could take months, and justices were still in the review process as of May 20.
- The government approved the release of 4,000 at-risk prisoners to house arrest on April 14. Some experts qualified the conditions for release as too restrictive and ultimately ineffective, given the country’s total prison population of 120,000. As of June 3, only 688 had met the requirements and been released.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: On June 8, the World Bank released updated projections that indicated the Colombian economy will contract by 4.9 percent in 2020, down from a –2.0 percent projection in April and further still from 3.6 percent growth projection in October 2019. On March 27, S&P downgraded Colombia’s credit rating from stable to negative, warning that the country could lose its investment grade status in the next 12 to 18 months. Still, Colombia is in a position to lead regional recovery, said the IMF’s Alejandro Werner in an interview on April 16, due to its resilience and strong internal demand.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: On July 22, Vice President Marta Lucía Ramírez, Commerce Minister José Manuel Restrepo, and ProColombia President Flavia Santoro presented the government’s plan for economic reactivation post-COVID. The plan incorporates 13 strategies, with special focuses on promoting job creation, the knowledge economy, and international e-commerce. The goal of the plan, said Ramírez, “isn’t to figure out how we can see more of our products, but rather how we produce more of what the international market demands, what the world wants to buy.” The plan also aims to cut unemployment, currently over 21 percent, to 6 percent by the end of 2022.
- On October 20, the Duque administration announced a 12-point, $5.2 million plan to facilitate financing for all-sized Colombian businesses. The measures include everything from new direct credit lines to preferred financing terms to extended grace periods for loan repayments.
- On October 19, the Colombian Congress approved a budget for 2021 that is 19.2 percent bigger than the 2020 budget. The budget includes the country’s biggest increase in public spending in the last 12 years and a lesser focus on debt repayments, although it will still disburse more for debt payments than public spending on the whole. The biggest line item in the budget is for education, followed by public security and then health and social services.
- Duque announced a series of economic relief measures on March 18, including accelerated tax refunds, a grace period on mortgage and loan payments for small- and medium-sized enterprises, and special lines of credit for the agriculture, tourism, and aviation sectors.
- In a move to both encourage consumer spending and keep people at home, Duque set July 3 and 19 as days when people could buy household appliances, electronics, and computers tax-free, provided they buy online.
- On June 3, the Duque administration expedited a measure that allows companies whose revenues have fallen by at least 20 percent to delay paying out employee bonuses and overtime pay from the first half of the year until December 20 at the latest.
- Per a decree issued May 8, the government will subsidize 40 percent of the $250-per-month minimum wage for workers at companies who have seen revenues drop by at least 20 percent during the pandemic. In contrast to the first economic package, which routed funds through banks to issue credit lines to businesses, with the second decree the government is giving the money directly to companies. On September 22, the government announced it will issue another round of subsidies in December to cover worker bonuses for businesses whose revenues have fallen by 20 percent.
- On April 8, the mayor of Bogotá announced she would allocate $128 million to a project aimed at providing half a million lower-class families in the capital with financial support.
- Social programs:
- Colombia’s lower house approved a “clean slate” law on May 27 that would give debtors a yearlong grace period to catch up on their payments, and those who do would have any negative credit reports erased at the end of the 12 months. The bill, which also includes protections for victims of identity theft, will go to a conference committee first before it heads to Duque’s desk for signing.
- Duque announced a set of economic measures on March 24, including disbursements of about $40 to 3 million low-income families, easing some conditions for student loan repayments.
- Other updates:
- The Colombian economy contracted 9 percent in the third quarter, an improvement from the 16 percent contraction in the previous one, Colombia’s national statistical agency, known as DANE, reported on November 16.
- Brent oil prices, the benchmark for Colombian oil exports, rose above $36 on May 26, after dropping below $20 per barrel on April 21. In order to maintain exploration and production levels, Colombia needs a barrel price of between $40 and $45. Oil export revenues represent 2.7 percent of Colombian GDP, compared to 11.3 percent in Venezuela.
- On May 1, the IMF approved a renewal for a two-year flexible credit line for Colombia totaling $10.8 billion. Additionally, the Colombian government asked for a total of $3 billion from the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the CAF – Development Bank of Latin America. Local economists estimate that one month of national quarantine costs between $15 and $20 billion, or about 4.5 to 6.1 percent of GDP.
- Manufacturing production in April fell almost 36 percent year-on-year, DANE reported on June 12, the biggest single-month decline since 1991. Auto parts, transportation, and footwear manufacturing took the biggest hits of the 39 sectors evaluated. Foods, grains, and baked goods, meanwhile, were among the half dozen sectors that grew. Commercial activity overall was down 43 percent.
- Unemployment was at 19.7 percent in July, down from 21.4 percent in May, but still the highest rate of OECD member countries. Of the unemployed, some 43.5 percent said they’d lost their job due to the pandemic, according to a report released by DANE at the end of June. That same report found that, in the country’s 13 largest urban areas, unemployment is up to 24.5 percent, compared to 11.2 percent in the same month a year earlier; a third of unemployed urban residents say they’re no longer able to keep up with bills and payments.
Spread
- January 19: 186,877 confirmed cases, 2477 deaths
- January 12: 181,093 confirmed cases, 2367 deaths
- December 15: 154,096 confirmed cases, 1,956 deaths
- November 17: 125,590 confirmed cases, 1,578 deaths
- October 20: 97,922 confirmed cases, 1,222 deaths
- September 22: 66,689 confirmed cases, 760 deaths
- August 25: 35,305 confirmed cases, 376 deaths
- August 4: 19,837 confirmed cases, 181 deaths
- July 7: 5,486 confirmed cases, 23 deaths
- June 9: 1,375 confirmed cases, 11 deaths
- May 12: 804 confirmed cases, 7 deaths
- April 14: 618 confirmed cases, 3 deaths
- March 18: First death
- March 17: 50 confirmed cases
- March 10: 13 confirmed cases
- March 6: First confirmed case
- On March 6, Costa Rica became the first Central American country to confirm a case, involving a 49-year-old tourist visiting from the United States. President Carlos Alvarado announced the confirmed case on Twitter and said Costa Rica had been preparing for the virus’ arrival since January.
- On March 18, the country announced its first coronavirus-related death when an 87-year-old man passed away.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: Costa Rica signed a deal with Pfizer/BioNTech to secure 3 million vaccine doses for $36 million, which are expected to begin arriving in the first quarter of 2021. As of January 14, 2021, the country received 87,750 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and began vaccinating first responders and high-risk residents. The vaccine is free for all citizens and residents. The country’s National Emergency Commission had dedicated $70 million to this vaccine effort through December 8, 2020, including specialized freezers to store vaccines.
- The WHO, along with Alvarado, launched on May 29 the COVID-19 Technology Access Pool, an initiative that aims to make vaccines, tests, treatments, and other health technologies to respond to COVID-19 widely accessible. The initiative was Alvarado’s idea; on March 24 he requested that the WHO create a repository of information available to all member countries.
- Reopening plan: Alvarado announced on April 27 that the country would begin to ease some restrictions starting May 1 and that its multi-phase gradual reopening plan would begin May 16. Below is a list of the reopening phases and strategies:
- September brought a new reopening strategy for the country. The plan involves a transition phase running from August 31 to September 8 and a controlled reopening phase, in effect since September 9. The transition phase will only affect cantons under an orange alert (see mitigation measures for alert levels), mandating that a number of commercial businesses close for the time period. Under the controlled reopening phase, most commercial businesses will open nationwide, except those involving large gatherings such as bars and casinos.
- Previously, August also came with its own staggered reopening strategy under which the government divided the month into a reopening phase and a closing phase. The phases differed across the country between areas under yellow and orange alerts. During the reopening phase, most commercial businesses opened nationwide at limited capacity depending on the alert color in place, while the closing phase only went into effect in areas under orange alert.
- Prior to the month-by-month strategies, Costa Rica went through three reopening phases as part of the government’s initial gradual reopening strategy between May and July.
- Mitigation measures: Costa Rica was credited as being successful in its efforts to slow contagion in the early days of the pandemic, but a spike in cases in June pushed officials to reconsider their opening strategy. Prior to the pandemic, Costa Rica already had a color-coded national emergency alert system that ranged from green (for providing information for an upcoming phenomenon) to red (all emergency response teams activated). Between the two, yellow activates the country’s national emergency commission and signifies that residents should take precautionary measures. In the context of the pandemic, an orange alert signals suspected and confirmed cases will be evacuated and isolated.
- As part of the government’s September 2020 reopening strategy, vehicle restrictions based on license plate numbers were extended through January 2021. A national curfew is in effect between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. on weekdays and between 9 p.m. and 5 a.m. on weekends where cars are not permitted on the roads and businesses must be closed. Tourists are largely exempt from the curfews. Across the country, traffic will be limited based on license plate number during hours outside the curfew. Similar vehicle restrictions were in place during the month of August as well.
- As of January 15, 26 out of 82 cantons are under orange alert due to rising cases while the rest of the country remains under yellow alert. Alajuela province had the most orange alert cantons while Guanacaste had no orange alert cantons as of January 15.
- Prior to August, driving restrictions were in place throughout July based on the alert system, though curfew hours fluctuated per government modifications.
- Face masks are required indoors, the Health Ministry announced July 20 after making their use mandatory in most public spaces in late June.
- On May 18, Costa Rica began to restrict foreign cargo transit into the country to limit the spread of the coronavirus within its borders—leaving hundreds of truckers stranded and causing other countries in the region to retaliate (see Nicaragua section). When it comes to cargo meant for Costa Rica, truckers must leave the merchandise at the country’s border so that local carriers can complete its delivery. Costa Rica conducts approximately $3.4 billion in trade annually with its Central American neighbors, or about $10 million a day.
- Alvarado declared a national state of emergency on March 16 that went into effect on March 18. Before that, on March 12, the government had already ordered public spaces to operate at 50 percent capacity and canceled international travel for public-sector workers. Large gatherings were also suspended.
- Travel and border restrictions: Costa Rica opened for all tourists traveling by air beginning November 1. Land borders into Costa Rica are closed through January 2021. Travelers must fill out an epidemiological survey and purchase traveler’s medical insurance. As of October, people entering the country are not required to provide a negative COVID-19 test to enter the country. The list of countries whose tourists are welcome to enter has been expanding since August 1 with the gradual opening.
- Costa Rica reopened its borders to Canada, the EU, and UK on August 1. Then, on August 13, the government expanded its list of authorized countries to a total of 44, with Uruguay being the only Latin American one to make the list. On October 15, the list expanded to include Central American countries.
- Starting September 1, some U.S. tourists were allowed into Costa Rica, so long as they were from the approved list of states and provide proof of residence upon arrival.
- Alvarado first announced the closure of all land, air, and sea entry points on March 16.
- School closings and restrictions: The country’s Education Ministry announced August 28 that in-person classes will not resume for the remainder of the year, instead continuing virtually as has been the case since mid-April. Costa Rica ordered universities to close and suspended public and private schools starting March 16 through April 4.
- Other updates:
- On April 11, Costa Rican authorities opened an air base at the country’s border with Nicaragua to reinforce border closure policies along the normally high-traffic shared border. The base came with heightened military personnel and surveillance to prevent people crossing south, according to Vice President Epsy Campbell, in light of the fact that the Nicaraguan government has instituted minimal measures to slow contagion within its borders. A May 14 letter signed by 52 out of the 57 members of Costa Rica’s Legislative Assembly urged the director of the Pan American Health Organization to take “forceful and urgent” actions regarding Nicaragua, stating that the Ortega administration’s response to the pandemic was a danger to its neighbors.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: ECLAC’s December 2020 report forecasts Costa Rica’s GDP will shrink by 4.8 percent in 2020, its largest fall in four decades. The government announced on July 10 that the country’s fiscal deficit will increase to 9.7 percent of GDP compared to the 6.96 percent deficit of 2019.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: Costa Rica is in negotiations with the IMF to receive $1.75 billion in Extended Fund Facility (EFF) assistance. Alvarado proposed additional tax measures as part of the negotiations, only to retract the proposal after mass protests. Alvarado announced on July 13 that the government is making its largest cut to public spending in the country’s history due to the pandemic. The cuts will be equivalent to 1 percent of Costa Rica’s GDP and will include every sector except social programs. Prior to that, the government announced on May 8 a $1.5 billion economic package including loans; assistance for micro-, small-, and medium businesses; and a plan to attract private investment. The loans are available to all productive sectors and may be used as seed capital assistance or for business-reopening costs. Costa Rica’s Central Bank announced on April 29 that the IMF had granted Costa Rica an emergency loan worth $508 million to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. A month earlier, Costa Rica’s national emergency commission received a $1 million aid package from the Central American Bank for Economic Integration.
- Social programs: The government launched an online financial support platform on April 9 called Plan Proteger through which Costa Ricans who have lost their jobs or are suffering income insecurity may request a monthly bonus of up to $220 for three months. On March 19, Alvarado signed into law tax relief legislation that placed a moratorium on four types of taxes from April through June: the Value-Added Tax, profit taxes, selective consumption taxes, and tariffs on imported merchandise.
- Other updates:
- Unemployment in Costa Rica reached 22 percent for July through September, an improvement over the record-high rate of 24.4 percent covering May through July. Women are disproportionately affected, facing 29.1 percent unemployment, compared to 19.3 percent for men.
- As lawmakers discussed cutting 15 percent of the government’s highest wages to offset the economic impact of the pandemic, Alvarado announced on July 16 that he would voluntarily reduce his own salary to meet the 15 percent spending cut.
- S&P Global Ratings downgraded its rating for Costa Rica from B+ to B on June 9 citing the effect of the pandemic on the country’s economy, following a similar downgrade from Moody’s on June 2.
Spread
- January 19: 19,122 confirmed cases, 180 deaths
- January 12: 16,044 confirmed cases, 158 deaths
- December 15: 9671 confirmed cases, 137 deaths
- November 17: 7,704 confirmed cases, 131 deaths
- October 20: 6,360 confirmed cases, 127 deaths
- September 22: 5,270 confirmed cases, 118 deaths
- August 25: 3,759 confirmed cases, 92 deaths
- August 4: 2,726 confirmed cases, 88 deaths
- July 7: 2,399 confirmed cases, 86 deaths
- June 9: 2,211 confirmed cases, 83 deaths
- May 12: 1,810 confirmed cases, 79 deaths
- April 14: 814 confirmed cases, 24 deaths
- March 18: First death
- March 17: 7 confirmed cases
- March 12: 3 confirmed cases
- March 11: First confirmed cases
- Official Cuban broadcast media confirmed the island’s first three cases on March 11. The three Italian tourists traveled to Havana on March 9.
- Cuba experienced its first coronavirus-related death on March 18.
- President Miguel Díaz-Canel declared on June 6 that Cuba had the pandemic “under control” after the country marked one week without any deaths. The Health Ministry’s head of epidemiology estimated that Cuba experienced its peak in cases in late April. When cases began to fall during the summer, authorities attributed the country’s success in curbing contagion to its rigorous screening and contact tracing strategy in which tens of thousands of doctors, nurses, and medical students monitor every home on the island on a daily basis for any signs of symptoms. A resurgence in cases at the end of the year, however, prompted new lockdowns on January 14, 2021; the government’s Temporary Working Group attributes the majority of new cases to international visitors.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: In August, Cuba became the first Latin American country to begin testing its own vaccine. By the end of November, its Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) had four vaccine candidates under development: Soberana 01, Soberana 02, Mambisa, and Abdala. The first two began to be tested in August and October, respectively, while trial dates have yet to be specified for the second two. The third phase of the human trials for Soberana 02 will be carried out in Iran, where 50,000 Iranians will participate. The Mambisa vaccine candidate finished a first stage trial on January 19. Authorities said “an important part” of the Cuban population will be vaccinated by the first quarter of 2021.
- Reopening plan: On June 11, the government unveiled its three-stage reopening plan culminating in a “new normal”, where all productive activities and services resume and Cubans assume “personal responsibility” in adhering to basic social distancing guidelines, such as mandatory use of masks in closed spaces and regular disinfecting of work and public spaces. As of October 9, 13 out of the island’s 15 provinces fully transitioned to a “new normal”, while the provinces of Ciego de Ávila and Sancti Spíritus remain closed due to active transmission of the virus, and as Havana enters phase three of reopening. After a surge of cases in late October, Pinar del Río joined the list of provinces declared to have active transmission, the stage under which it still finds itself as of November 17. With the exception of the city of Caibaiguán, the Sancti Spíritus province was reclassified as under the “new normal” on December 11, amounting to 12 provinces in the final stage of reopening, while Havana and Ciego de Ávila remain under the third phase. However, starting January 14, Cuba announced a new lockdown, shuttering bars and restaurants. Public transportation will stop at 9 pm and roads to Havana will be limited. The government plans to impose fines on anyone who violates restrictions.
- Hospitals and outpatient services will reopen at 50 percent capacity under phase one and then increase to 75 percent and 100 percent capacity under phases two and three respectively.
- Under the transmission phase, the Defense Councils across the country set up quarantines in neighborhoods or municipalities with suspected or confirmed local transmission.
- Under phase one, hotels will reopen to in-country tourism after domestic travel was suspended since March 23, while face mask use and social distancing guidelines will remain in place.
- Workers who saw their jobs interrupted due to the pandemic will continue to receive 60 percent of their basic salary during the first two phases, as has been the case since April.
- Public and private transportation—which has been shut down since April 11—will begin to operate under phase two.
- Under phase three in Havana, the least risky services and productive activities, along with public transportation, resume while following social-distancing guidelines. The restrictions still in place include the suspension of licenses for independent taxi drivers and the requirement that hotel staff quarantine for seven days before returning to work.
- Díaz-Canel said on October 9 that if outbreaks occur under the “new normal,” the area of the outbreak will close rather than the entire province.
- Mitigation measures: By the start of July, every province in Cuba had moved past the “limited local transmission” phase initially decreed for the entire country on April 7. However, on August 8, the government announced that the Havana province and capital would revert to said phase and be placed on lockdown after several outbreaks within the region. Then, on August 28, Havana’s governor announced a stricter 15-day lockdown for Havana to go into effect September 1, including a nightly curfew between 7 p.m. and 5 a.m. and a ban on interprovincial travel from the region. Havana entered phase three of reopening on October 12.
- On May 12, the Health Ministry published in the government’s official gazette the sanitary and health protocols to follow during the pandemic, though these measures had largely been in place since early April. The text includes that those who experience symptoms similar to those of COVID-19 or have had contact with someone infected with the coronavirus must report to the nearest health facility for further guidance. When asked by a health official, Cubans must also provide any personal information deemed necessary for the “effective prevention of the transmission of COVID-19.”
- Travel and border restrictions: Starting in January 2021, the nation announced it was reducing the number of flights into the island and that visitors would need to show a negative coronavirus test in order to be granted entry. The government claimed that 70 percent of coronavirus cases since November 15 are linked to international travelers. Previously, in a TV appearance on October 16, Transportation and Tourism Ministers Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila and Juan Carlos García Granda announced that interprovincial bus transportation (except to Ciego de Ávila and Sancti Spírtus) restarts October 19, while train service gradually restarts October 24. Airlines can also travel to any provincial airport under the “new normal.” Though still in phase three of reopening, Havana officially opened the José Martí International airport on November 15. International marinas have resumed operation and are accepting cruises. Cuban nationals, foreign residents, and non-residents alike are permitted to travel domestically and in and out of the country. All travelers must sign a declaration about their state of health upon arrival and will be administered a free PCR test, and those who test positive will be isolated for 14 days. Traveling residents or anyone going into the community will have to take a second PCR test on the fifth day and quarantine until they receive the second set of results, while tourists staying at hotels, hostels, and casas particulares (private homestays) need to only take one test. Starting July 1, select areas in the northern region of the island began welcoming international tourists for all-inclusive vacations, allowing the government to isolate tourists from the general population. International commercial flights were suspended April 2 after the country initially announced that it would remain open to tourism in mid-March.
- School closings and restrictions: On December 9, Education Vice Minister Dania López said the 2019-2020 school year concluded without any cases of COVID-19 transmission. Schools reopened in September after being closed since late March in provinces under the “new normal,” while schools in Havana opened on November 2.
- Other updates:
- Cuba has deployed medical brigades to over 39 countries to support local efforts as of November 2020.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: ECLAC’s July report projects that the Cuban economy will contract 8 percent this year. Cuba’s Minister of Economy and Planning estimated in January that the country’s economy will grow by 1 percent this year.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: The government announced a series of economic measures on July 16 that went into effect on July 20. Among the measures, the government announced that more markets would accept dollars and that the tax imposed on the dollar would be eliminated.
- Per a May 4 Granma report, Cuba’s Council of Ministers approved a series of adjustments to the island’s fiscal plan for 2020 due to the pandemic, including the prioritization of allocating funds to boost the agricultural and food production sectors.
- On March 26, the government announced the temporary suspension of more than 16,000 work licenses for entrepreneurs, including landlords, contract workers, restaurant workers, and craftsmen.
- Social programs: Between April 1 and April 7, Cuba’s Ministry of Labor and Social Security announced a series of measures aimed at protecting workers, including that workers who must undergo a 14-day isolation period will receive 100 percent of their basic salary for the time period. Older and at-risk workers were instructed to stay home and will receive 100 percent of their basic salary for the first month and 60 percent thereafter.
- Other updates:
- Despite the Trump administration’s tightening of sanctions this year, a cohort of Cuban-Americans organized a shipment of $100,000 in medical supplies that arrived on the island December 10.
- On April 1, the government announced that prices for cell phone data and voice usage would be lower in the mornings. Rates for national long distance calls were also reduced by 25 percent between 6 a.m. and 5:59 p.m. and by 50 percent between 6 p.m. and 5:59 a.m. The government also added 10 hours to the at-home internet service Nauta Hogar for the month of April. On April 22, these measures were extended until May 30. Then, on May 30, these measures were extended in part until June 30.
Spread
- January 19: 198,123 confirmed cases, 2470 deaths
- January 12: 186,383 confirmed cases, 2428 deaths
- December 15: 156,585 confirmed cases, 2,372 deaths
- November 17: 135,157 confirmed cases, 2,293 deaths
- October 20: 122,398 confirmed cases, 2,206 deaths
- September 22: 109,737 confirmed cases, 2,074 deaths
- August 25: 92,557 confirmed cases, 1,613 deaths
- August 4: 75,660 confirmed cases, 1,222 deaths
- July 7: 39,588 confirmed cases, 829 deaths
- June 9: 20,808 confirmed cases, 550 deaths
- May 12: 11,196 confirmed cases, 409 deaths
- April 14: 3,614 confirmed cases, 189 deaths
- March 17: 21 confirmed cases, 1 death
- March 16: First death
- March 10: 5 confirmed cases
- March 1: First confirmed case
- The Dominican Republic's first confirmed case was reported on March 1 and involved a 62-year-old Italian tourist.
- The country reported its first death from the virus on March 16, involving an HIV-positive woman, 47, who also had tuberculosis and had traveled to Spain recently.
- The Dominican Republic confirmed on January 15, 2021 that the British variant of COVID-19 was detected within the country’s borders in December. The first case was thought to be brought into the country by a Dominican woman recently returned from London.
Government response
- Vaccine rollout: The government put a down payment on 10 million AstraZeneca vaccines, which are estimated to arrive in February. The Dominican Republic is also promised 2 million vaccines by the end of 2021 via COVAX, the joint World Health Organization and the Global Alliance of Vaccines and Immunization program, and is in negotiations with pharmaceutical companies for another 2 million vaccines doses.
- Reopening plan: Then-President Danilo Medina announced on May 17 the government’s plan to partially reopen the Dominican economy beginning on May 20. Luis Abinader, who previously tested positive for COVID-19 and recovered, was sworn in as the country’s president on August 16 and, upon assuming office, his administration presented a new plan for combating the pandemic. Since then, here is a list of what has happened with the plan:
- Although phase three of the country’s reopening was tentatively scheduled to go into effect June 17, the government decided on June 16 to postpone that move after cases had peaked during the initial two phases.
- Before that, the country began phase two of its four-phase reopening plan on June 3. Under the second phase, public buses began running at 60 percent capacity, some commercial retailers reopened, and churches were allowed to resume their Sunday services with reduced attendees.
- The plan went into effect with phase one May 20 when micro- and small-sized businesses were able to reopen with up to 50 percent of personnel, and medium to large businesses with up to 25 percent. The public sector reopened at 50 percent, and state public transportation began to run at 30 percent capacity.
- Mitigation measures: On July 20, outgoing President Medina declared a 45-day national state of emergency with new restrictions starting July 21, reverting to a decree the government previously issued in mid-March and extended through the end of June. Below is a chronology of measures taken by both presidencies:
- Abinader tightened curfew hours to between 5 pm and 5 am on weekdays and from 12 p.m. to 5 a.m. on weekends from January 11 to 26. A 3-hour grace period after the beginning of quarantine is enforced to give people an opportunity to get home. Restaurants are permitted to operate at 50 percent capacity, after being closed from December 30 to January 11.
- Starting in October 2020 and extended until December 1, a modified national curfew was in effect between 9 pm and 5 am on weekdays and 7 p.m. and 5 a.m. on weekends and holidays. The new curfew allowed two additional hours of activity on the weekend compared to September’s curfew update.
- Under Medina’s state of emergency, two curfews were in effect starting July 21, initially for a period of 20 days but then extended for 25 more days on August 8 through September 3. The emergency decree divided the country into two groups based on contagion within the country’s 31 provinces and the National District and assigned two different curfews—one stricter than the other—to each group accordingly: 14 provinces and the National District, including the capital, had a curfew between 7 p.m. and 5 a.m., while the remaining 17 provinces have an 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew.
- Before the July nationwide state of emergency decree, the government declared the entire national territory as being under an epidemic on June 30, which granted the government the power to institute new measures to mitigate and control the spread of the coronavirus including suspending most commercial, social, and recreational activities.
- The Health Ministry announced on May 5 that authorities would begin to intervene in the most affected provinces with the help of the country’s Armed Forces, the National Health Service, the Center for Emergency Operations, and other official entities. The interventions, which began on May 14, include measures such as setting up rapid testing centers, limiting movement within designated zones, and decontaminating hospitals and other medical facilities, supermarkets, and malls. The Ministry designated a total of seven areas—each made up of a handful of municipalities with the most confirmed cases—to be inspected.
- On April 22, Medina inaugurated the Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Cybersecurity Center (C5i), a new agency housed within the Ministry of Defense that works in conjunction with the country’s Armed Forces to monitor and enforce measures, including enforcing at-home quarantines and moving patients to medical facilities.
- Wearing face masks in public became mandatory on April 16.
- Travel and border restrictions: The Dominican Republic reopened its borders for international tourism on July 1. International cruise ships are allowed to port in the Dominican Republic as of November 1. A new tourism protocol, which begins September 15, will no longer require tourists to present a negative test result upon arrival. The government will perform random tests at their airport instead. Also on said date, the government will begin offering free health insurance to tourists to cover any coronavirus-related costs, through the end of the year.
- Between July 30 and September 14, the Dominican Republic required tourists to present a negative molecular test result, and those who did not comply were tested at the airport at the government’s cost. Medina initially ordered the country’s borders to close beginning March 19. Before that, the government had suspended all incoming flights from Europe, China, and Iran between March 16–30 after suspending all flights from Milan on February 28.
- School closings and restrictions: The 2020-2021 school year began on November 10 for all students and runs an additional 45 days to make up for lost time. It is being held remotely via television, radio, and the internet. Though schools were scheduled to open August 24, the Medina government announced June 30 that in-person learning would remain suspended for the foreseeable future. Medina ordered public schools and universities to close and suspended in-person classes on March 17.
- Other updates:
- Despite a spike in cases, the Dominican Republic held general elections on July 5 and elected opposition candidate Luis Abinader of the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) for president. Abinader had just a month prior announced that he and his wife had tested positive for COVID-19. Turnout hovered around 50 percent, and a series of safety protocols were in place during election day, though the Organization of American States reported lapses in physical distancing throughout the day. The executive director of the presidential committee tasked with managing the COVID-19 pandemic warned that he anticipates cases will surge in the weeks after the election. The vote was originally scheduled for May 17, but the country's Electoral Board pushed them back in mid-April to July 5. This is the second election held in the Dominican Republic during the pandemic, and the first general election in Latin America during the crisis. In fact, Medina acknowledged on April 22 that the government did not move to combat the spread of the coronavirus in early March when the first case was confirmed due to municipal elections scheduled for March 15.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: The ECLAC’s December report projects a GDP contraction of 5.5 percent for 2020 in the Dominican Republic. The contraction is a notable shift from the World Bank’s April forecast in which it estimated that the economy would neither grow nor contract. The Dominican Central Bank announced in November that the country’s economy contracted by 8.1 percent in the first nine months of the year.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: Between April 21 and April 28, the Dominican government, through its special agricultural fund (FEDA), approved $1.8 million in aid for the agrarian sector to boost production and cultivation. On April 23, the country’s Central Bank approved a series of monetary measures, including lowering three types of interest rates and instituting liquidity measures for the national currency. Prior to that, on March 26, the Central Bank approved roughly $1.5 billion for banks to have available for clients, and $622.4 million in credit for export industries. On April 29, the IMF approved $650 million in emergency assistance for the Dominican Republic.
- Social programs: On March 25, Medina announced an economic package worth over $591 million to alleviate salary losses and food insecurity. The measures include a three-month moratorium on monthly minimum payments on credit cards as well as waivers of late fees. Starting on April 1 until May 31, the 811,000 families already subscribed to the country’s social welfare program Tarjeta de Solidaridad will receive a monthly payment ranging from $27 to $130 for foodstuffs and first aid products. The president added that 690,000 other families outside the social welfare program would also receive this assistance. An additional 70,000 homes were added to the program on April 23.
- Other updates:
- Fitch Ratings downgraded its rating for the Dominican Republic from stable to negative on May 5.
Spread
- January 19: 232,568 confirmed cases, 14,382 deaths
- January 12: 222,567 confirmed cases, 14,196 deaths
- December 15: 202,356 confirmed cases, 13,896 deaths
- November 17: 181,104 confirmed cases, 13,025 deaths
- October 20: 154,115 confirmed cases, 12,404 deaths
- September 22: 127,643 confirmed cases, 11,126 deaths
- August 25: 109,030 confirmed cases, 6,368 deaths
- August 4: 87,963 confirmed cases, 5,808 deaths
- July 7: 63,245 confirmed cases, 4,873 deaths
- June 9: 43,917 confirmed cases, 3,690 deaths
- May 12: 30,419 confirmed cases, 2,327 deaths
- April 14: 7,603 confirmed cases, 369 deaths (See note below.)
- March 17: 111 confirmed cases, 2 deaths
- March 13: First death
- March 10: 15 confirmed cases
- March 3: 7 confirmed cases
- February 29: First confirmed case
- Ecuador’s then-Health Minister Catalina Andramuño Zeballos confirmed the country’s first case on February 29, involving a 71-year-old woman who lived in Spain and traveled to Ecuador on February 14. The woman passed away on March 13, becoming the country’s first fatality as well.
- Along with deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19, the government also reports deaths that occurred “in the context” of the virus, typically increasing the death toll by about 67 percent. Separate government figures show that in the Guayas province, close to 14,600 people died of all causes in March and the first two weeks of April. The province, considered an epicenter for the virus with about two-thirds of national cases, normally sees 2,000 deaths per month and the local health system was quickly overwhelmed.
- Note: After not reporting an official count for May 5, officials announced on May 6 that they had lowered the total count of confirmed cases by 2,461 cases between May 4 and May 6 after having discarded duplicate test samples. On April 24, after much discrepancy between four official counts and releasing the results of more than 10,000 previously unreported positive test results that nearly doubled the official case count figure, officials suspended reporting daily COVID-19 case numbers over the weekend while they implemented a new software system to track the data. Beginning April 7, Ecuadoran officials changed their methodology to count the number of cases based on people having symptoms, regardless of whether or not they've been tested.
- On April 9, Guayaquil Mayor and former presidential candidate Cynthia Viteri announced she had recovered from the disease after fighting it for about two weeks at home. She’s one of 15 mayors in Guayas to come down with COVID-19.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: As of January 19, Ecuador has four agreements to acquire a total of 18 million doses—60 percent of the total need—including 2 million from Pfizer/BioNTech, 2 million from the U.S. firm COVAXX, 7 million from AstraZeneca, and 7 million via the WHO’s COVAX initiative. Health Minister Juan Carlos Zevallos said the initial goal of vaccinating 30,000 people a day—at which rate it would take until about July 2022 to vaccinate Ecuador’s 17.6 million people—was modest. Officials say the roughly 180,000 Ecuadorans who’ve recovered from COVID-19 will not be eligible for a vaccine, saying it could pose a health risk to them.
- Reopening plan: Ecuador’s nationwide curfew and driving restrictions are set to end on September 12, when the state of exception—in place since March 16—expires. The country’s Constitutional Court, which twice before approved President Lenín Moreno’s requests for 60-day states of exception that were then each extended 30 days, ruled on August 24 that it would not approve a third such request. While there’s no constitutional limit on how long Ecuador can be under a state of exception during a given period of time, the court based its ruling on the idea that a state of exception should be just that—exceptional—and to continue to approve states of exception permanently, especially in light of an indefinite pandemic, would “distort the essence and constitutional purpose.” The ruling encouraged the government to adapt its response to the health crisis to be a long-term one within the regular laws. The country began to loosen some restrictions and shift from social isolation to social distancing on May 4 via a three-color system based on the contagion levels in a given municipality.
- Beaches began to reopen on August 5.
- Quito went under a curfew from August 3 to 6 in an effort to limit the virus’ spread. Six weeks after reopening, the capital maxed out its ICU capacity—just as Mayor Jorge Yunda feared it would two weeks prior—in light of which the city council passed a resolution on July 14 asking the national government to put more restrictive measures in place. On July 22, the mayor announced a plan to set up 10 field hospitals in some of the most affected neighborhoods, with resources from the city of Guayaquil. From March 13 to June 3, the capital registered about 47 new cases per day; from June 3 to June 26, that figure rose to 100 daily. After 78 days of lockdown, Quito downgraded to the medium yellow level and began to reopen on June 3 with businesses and public buses operating at 50 percent occupancy. City council members and representatives of the Quito Chamber of Commerce had petitioned Yunda in a meeting on May 12 to change the capital’s lockdown level from red to yellow, given the close to $1 billion in losses in just the first two weeks of the national shutdown.
- Though Guayaquil’s reopening has progressed mostly without incident, Viteri did prohibit social gatherings on August 3. The city began reopening on May 20 after it became a yellow zone based on the country’s “traffic light” reopening system. Though Ecuador’s largest city has recorded over 9,000 COVID-19-related deaths, on May 17 the city registered just 34 deaths, below its pre-pandemic average of 38 per day.
- The Ecuadoran court system began a gradual reopening process on May 11. The courtrooms of judges who are elderly, at risk, pregnant or nursing will be first in line to be outfitted to hold virtual hearings. Legal proceedings mostly shut down March 16 when the state of emergency went into effect, though the Supreme Court did make time to hand down an eight-year prison sentence on April 7 to ex-President Rafael Correa in absentia.
- Mitigation measures: Moreno declared a national health emergency on March 11, and then announced a state of exception on March 16. During the latter, there is a nightly curfew from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m., as well as limits on the circulation of cars, and in-person classes were suspended. During the 90 days of Ecuador’s first state of exception, Moreno signed 56 executive decrees, sent three bills to Congress, and implemented a major economic relief plan. He issued a second state of exception, this one for 60 days, on June 15.
- In an effort to perform contact tracing as the city reopens, Guayaquil began sending health monitors to 17 city zones on July 8 to screen the symptoms of 1,600 people daily.
- On the evening of March 15, Moreno announced people’s movements within the country would be restricted except to buy food, medicine, and basic goods. Also banned are all non-essential commercial activities.
- Travel and border restrictions: Ecuador’s airports reopened to both domestic and international flights on June 1 at 30 percent of their usual capacity. In June, the Guayaquil airport recorded just 5.9 percent of the number of travelers it did the same month a year before. On June 23, Ecuador and Colombia announced a plan to allow nationals stranded in each other’s countries to return home via one land border crossing. Ecuador’s borders closed to nationals and residents on March 16 and to foreigners on March 15. Venezuelans in Ecuador have until August 13 to apply for a humanitarian visa to be able to stay in the country, though migrant rights groups say the $50 application fee is too much for migrants to be able to come up with in the given time.
- School closings and restrictions: On March 12, authorities announced the suspension of all classes in educational institutions starting March 13. Some secondary classes resumed virtually on May 4, and some university ones on July 1.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: On June 4, Ecuador’s Central Bank projected the economy will contract between 7.3 and 9.6 percent in 2020. The World Bank, meanwhile, projects a 7.4 percent contraction for the year according to new numbers released June 8, down from a 6.0 percent contraction forecast two months earlier, and 0.2 percent growth projected back in October 2019. On March 25, S&P Global downgraded Ecuador’s long- and short-term credit ratings, with default a possibility in the coming months.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: Moreno announced seven new economic measures on May 19 aimed at cutting $4 billion from the national budget. The measures include a required reduction of the work day for most workers, closing or merging of 10 public entities, closing 11 embassies and other diplomatic offices, and restructuring Ecuador’s public debt. Moreno said that since the pandemic began, Ecuador has lost 150,000 jobs and the state is looking at a $12 billion budget shortfall. Labor groups went on a nationwide strike on May 25 in protest of the workday reduction measure.
- On July 27, Moreno issued an executive decree that requires about 1,200 companies that recorded a profit in the first half of 2020 to pay their income tax at least five months ahead of schedule. The country’s tax authority estimates it will collect $280 million through the measure, which will be distributed to 125,000 small businesses affected by the pandemic.
- Separately, a new Humanitarian Support Law, which was backed by Moreno’s party and affiliates in Congress along with the Quito Chamber of Commerce, went into effect on June 22. The law’s primary new feature is that it will allow for work hours and salaries to be reduced by up to 50 and 45 percent, respectively, for two years at a time. Experts anticipate the country’s Constitutional Court will need to rule on it to reconcile any potential conflicts with labor law already on the books.
- New taxes on higher earners was one key measure in an April 10 fiscal policy package announced by Moreno. Companies that reported over $1 million in revenues in 2018 will be taxed 5 percent, and individuals who earn over $500 monthly will be taxed on a sliding scale. Ecuador’s public debt hit $56 billion in June 2019, giving the country a 49 percent debt-to-GDP ratio.
- Moreno announced on April 12 that he’s preparing to halve the salaries of government officials from his own through those of regional governors, congresspeople, and cabinet members.
- On May 11, Moreno eliminated two ministries, folded a third into another, and closed three public works companies. The Treasury asked all government agencies on May 5 to submit plans to reduce their budgets by 10 to 15 percent.
- On March 17, Moreno introduced economic measures including postponing social security payments for 90 days and deferring taxes for the tourism and export sectors as well as for small businesses, for the months of April, May, and June.
- Social programs:
- During the emergency, the administration has ordered that no one have their utilities cut off for lack of payment. The government is also providing increased internet and cell phone data service, as well as free coronavirus tests for anyone with symptoms.
- A program that handed out $60 over two months to 950,000 families earning under $400 per month was expanded to reach 2 million as part of the April 10 package.
- Other updates:
- Unemployment in Ecuador reached 13.3 percent in June 2020, up from 3.8 percent six months earlier, according to a September report from the National Census and Statistical Institute, known as INEC. Moreover, INEC found that another 67.4 percent of workers are underemployed.
- Ecuador reached an agreement with bondholders to restructure $17.4 billion in outstanding debt, which will free up $16 billion in the national budget over the next 10 years, Moreno announced on July 6.
- Ecuador will receive $2.4 billion in credit from China between June and October, Finance Minister Richard Martínez announced on May 29.
- On March 25, the government announced that the country will receive a total of $2 billion in emergency funds from three international agencies in the coming weeks: $500 million from the International Monetary Fund, $500 million from the World Bank, and $1 billion from bilateral debt, primarily from China. The IMF approved another $643 million in emergency financing for Ecuador on May 2.
- As of May 28, the national government owed $890 million in scheduled payments to Ecuador’s social security administration. By law, the national government contributes 40 percent of the fund’s resources but made no payments in the first five months of 2020.
- Fitch Ratings downgraded bonds issued by PetroAmazonas from CC to C (one level above default) on April 30, due to moves by the company that the ratings agency considers a distressed debt exchange. It’s the fourth downgrade for the PetroEcuador subsidiary debt in 20 months. The ratings agency downgraded Ecuador’s sovereign debt to C on April 9, saying that, “Sovereign default of some kind is imminent.” Ecuador got a temporary reprieve in late April when investors agreed to let it defer some interest payments until August and reduce others.
- The rebound of the WTI oil barrel price on April 22 after historic drops was welcome news for Ecuador, where oil exports represent 5 percent of GDP. Incidentally, Ecuador left OPEC in early March. Other Ecuadoran exports—like shrimp canned fish, and cacao—were down 83 percent in the first two weeks of April compared to the same period last year. Not only is demand for exports globally down, but because Ecuador uses the U.S. dollar as its currency, its exports become more expensive when the dollar appreciates, as it is now.
- One bright spot in Ecuador’s pandemic economy? Bananas. Producers of the fruit—Ecuador’s second most valuable export after crude oil—reported their shipments doubling from the beginning of March to mid-June.
Spread
- January 19: 51,437 confirmed cases, 1,521 deaths
- January 12: 49,859 confirmed cases, 1,449 deaths
- December 15: 42,397 confirmed cases, 1,219 deaths
- November 17: 36,669 confirmed cases, 1,056 deaths
- October 20: 32,120 confirmed cases, 933 deaths
- September 22: 27,954 confirmed cases, 819 deaths
- August 25: 25,140 confirmed cases, 687 deaths
- August 4: 18,701 confirmed cases, 498 deaths
- July 7: 8,566 confirmed cases, 235 deaths
- June 9: 3,274 confirmed cases, 60 deaths
- May 12: 1,037 confirmed cases, 20 deaths
- April 14: 159 confirmed cases, 6 deaths
- March 31: 32 confirmed cases, first death
- March 18: First confirmed case
- The country—one of the last Latin American countries to confirm a case—announced its first one on March 18. President Nayib Bukele revealed the case involved a person who had traveled to Italy and whose return was not documented.
- El Salvador experienced its first death—a 60-year-old woman who had returned from the United States—on March 31.
- On November 9, the country’s Attorney General’s Office launched an investigation into the Bukele government’s pandemic spending, raiding 20 different government offices to collect evidence. Health Minister Francisco Alabí has faced legal challenges for inking a government contract in April to buy $225,000 worth of medical supplies from a company owned by family members. On July 21, he said he was not considering resigning. On July 28, Finance Minister Nelson Fuentes resigned and his replacement, José Alejandro Zelaya, faces ethics violations because two of his employees sold pandemic-related facial protective gear to the government for $750,000.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: On November 26, Bukele announced that El Salvador would acquire four different vaccines and that it had entered into an agreement with AstraZeneca to purchase 2 million doses. The vaccine is slated to be rolled out in the first half of 2021 and will be free and voluntary. Bukele also said front-line workers—medical professionals, police, soldiers—followed by people over 50 years old and those with chronic health conditions. On December 30, El Salvador approved the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine for use. In addition, per a January 2021 WHO announcement, developing countries that are part of the UN’s COVAX accord will begin to receive vaccines in January or February, and El Salvador is among the countries that will acquire doses via this system.
- Reopening plan: El Salvador’s management of the pandemic has been marked throughout by institutional battles that predate COVID-19’s arrival in the country and concerns the government is using the coronavirus as an excuse for repression. The same is true of the reactivation plan. The conflicts have even given rise to U.S. warnings to Bukele of aid cuts, per a September 3 Associated Press report. But there’s a reason why Bukele is confident about pushing back: 80 percent of Salvadorans deem his government’s pandemic management as “very good” and another 15 percent say it’s “good,” per a June 29 CID-Gallup poll. Still, on June 14 Bukele’s government issued Decree 31 ending the quarantine—which began on March 14—on June 16. While the five-phase plan was initially set to start shortly after it was announced and run through August 20, the Bukele government repeatedly delayed entering Phase 2 and reset subsequent phase dates. With no legal clarity around reactivation, the country proceeded to a full reopening on August 24. Below are highlights of the conflict over and steps taken as part of the reopening plan:
- At the end of October 2020, the Assembly passed legislation prohibiting national quarantines and protecting individual rights. Per the law, only those who have tested positive or been exposed to the coronavirus must face quarantine. Localized quarantines can only occur in areas that have seen more than a 10 percent increase in cases. The legislation appears to be an attempt to prevent Bukele from decreeing the kinds of strict measures taken early in the pandemic.
- Despite various plans presented, El Salvador’s complete reopening of the economy began August 24. The Bukele government’s July 30 Decree (number 32) sought to reschedule reopening dates, but on August 7, the Supreme Court declared the decree unconstitutional due to its limits on rights, saying the move requires a measure from the legislature to enforce. On August 10, Bukele said of the Court: “If I were a dictator, I would have shot them all. You save 1,000 lives in exchange for five.” The court’s ruling allowed for Decree 32 to extend until August 23 to give the legislature and the president time to come to agreement, which did not happen, and the Bukele government confirmed on August 22 that—with no legislation in place to prohibit economic activities—reopening would proceed two days later.
- On August 19, the Supreme Court overturned Bukele’s veto of a legislative proposal approved June 12 that called for implementation of a four-phase reopening plan starting June 16 and ending July 6. Bukele responded to the decision by saying: “What do we do now? Go back in time?” and called the decision “inconsequential.”
- On June 24, the Bukele government submitted a proposal to the National Assembly for a new 15-day state of exception to restrict certain rights as a containment measure—despite a reopening plan being put in place. Different from a state of emergency, the prior state of exception expired in April (see “Mitigation Measures” below). On June 29, Alabí said that periods of states of exception could alternate with periods of economic reactivation. On June 30, legislators said that, rather than a state of exception, they were assessing a plan for controlled quarantines focused on areas with high rates of contagion or mortality. However, on July 4, the executive branch threatened to veto local-level states of exception, saying doing so would be unconstitutional and restrict human rights.
- As of June 17, El Salvador’s Constitutional Court was considering at least three petitions that challenge Bukele’s Decree 31 on the grounds that it restricts constitutional rights related to freedoms of movement and transportation. Meanwhile, the president, while announcing the aforementioned decree, complained that his government had developed a prior law in accordance with an agreement made with the Constitutional Court, only to have the Court deem it unconstitutional. Both the Court and the National Assembly responded by denying having come to such agreements during meetings in recent months with Bukele. Bukele also had suggested that he had held a meeting with U.S. Ambassador Ronald Johnson about the law surrounding the quarantine. The Embassy denied having authorized any laws and said it respected El Salvador’s sovereignty. On June 8, El Salvador’s Constitutional Court declared two laws, a cabinet resolution, and 11 executive decrees unconstitutional and prohibited both the executive branch and the National Assembly from continuing to publish decrees that use the argument of preventing COVID-19 as reason for violating the Constitution. On June 20, Bukele sent a letter to the Assembly demanding it restore powers he said the Court had removed.
- On June 6, Bukele made good on his promise to veto a May 30 measure by the Legislative Assembly that sought to reopen business activities on June 8.
- Mitigation measures: El Salvador began to implement containment measures before the first confirmed case. The legislature first approved both a state of emergency and a state of exception on March 14, though the state of exception, which raised concerns due to the suspension of constitutional rights, expired on April 12. For most of the period since those first steps were taken, there have been battles over extensions. Below is a on overview of milestones along the way:
- With a state of emergency having expired at midnight on May 16, Bukele’s government declared a 30-day extension without the legislature’s approval on May 17, basing the decision on a 2005 constitutional measure allowing the president to decide in the case that the legislature cannot meet—though the Assembly was scheduled to do so. The Attorney General’s office filed a challenge with the Supreme Court, which, on May 18, declared the extension to be unconstitutional. Bukele then threatened—and then made good on the promise—to veto a congressional measure passed May 18 that extended the country’s quarantine for no more than 15 days and, among other things, required companies to set public health protocols for reopening. With that measure dead in the water, the Assembly spent the week of May 25 drafting the later-vetoed legislation but hit various obstacles, including Bukele’s resistance to transparency measures imposed by the Assembly.
- On May 10, the presidency published a decree with seven modifications to the stricter quarantine measures Bukele announced May 5 and that began May 7. The updates sought to address concerns about unconstitutional measures in two prior decrees. The modifications included allowing health workers to use public transportation; letting police, the military, and medical workers make purchases and conduct bank transactions without showing identification; and the establishment of a call center to attend emergency calls and handle purchases of medications. The initial set of new rules, which the National Assembly paved the way for when it passed a quarantine law early in the morning of May 5, allowed Bukele to decree that Salavadorans can only leave their homes twice a week to buy food and medicine within the towns where people reside. On May 7, the presidency added on to the restrictions by prohibiting public transportation, taxis, and ubers, thereby severely limiting movement in a country where 80 percent of the population uses public buses for transport.
- On April 29, Bukele vetoed a transitional law passed April 17 by the National Assembly that sought to fulfil an April 15 Supreme Court resolution safeguarding the rights of those who are detained for violating the national quarantine and subject to the punitive measures outlined in an April 14 executive order. Bukele’s executive order required people to allow health officials into their homes to evaluate sanitation measures, while those who violate the national quarantine are subject to 30 days of controlled quarantine. In addition, it required those driving without a justified reason to submit their vehicles for disinfection. Also on April 29, Bukele vetoed a law designed to aid health professionals by, among other things, providing them with life insurance. The Assembly had already sought once to bypass the president’s prior veto on this measure on April 23.
- On April 12, Bukele announced it would be obligatory for people to wear masks in the street and that people who drive vehicles who do not have the right to do so could be stripped of both their licenses and cars. The latter measure contradicted an April 8 Supreme Court ruling that annulled an earlier order by Bukele to seize vehicles. The Court also annulled Bukele’s April 6 detention measure, ordered in conjunction with his April 6 announcement that the country’s quarantine would be extended for a month and that the armed forces and police should “get harsher with people in the street” and detain them for 30 days for not following quarantine rules.
- Travel and border restrictions: El Salvador’s international airport reopened for service on September 19, just over six months after it shut down. Land borders with Guatemala and El Salvador began reopening during the week of September 21, and continued with the reopening of borders in Central America in October. As of the airport’s reopening, travelers—Salvadoran or not—entering the country had to prove they took a coronavirus test within a 72-hour period prior to flying or face a $6,000 penalty. El Salvador has made good on the threat, and also fined airlines for transporting passengers with the virus. The constitutional wing of the Supreme Court declared September 11 that the government cannot prevent Salvadoran nationals from entering the country based on COVID-19 test results. Even before the airport was closed in mid-March, Bukele banned foreign travel into the country, except for residents and diplomats, while returning Salvadorans were required to be isolated for 30 days.
- On December 15, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security revealed that a bilateral migration agreement was slated to go into effect in which migrants at the U.S. border would get sent to El Salvador. On May 29, El Faro reported that it had uncovered that four deportees from the United States ended up testing positive in El Salvador. While officials in neighboring Guatemala have said a large portion of deportees are arriving infected with the coronavirus, El Salvador’s government has defended Washington and said it has not found that deportees have been infected. In March, El Salvador suspended deportation flights from Mexico and the United States, but quickly lifted the ban. On April 24, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that the United States is sending ventilators to El Salvador while acknowledging the country’s support on migration. Overall, the United States pledged 600 ventilators, with a total cost of close to $8 million, to the Central American country. The first 250 shipped on May 21 and nearly all 600 had arrived by September 1.
- On December 9, Bukele offered ICU beds to Costa Rica, given that the Central American country was seeing an increase in cases.
- School closings and restrictions: School reopenings have been repeatedly delayed since Bukele initially ordered all schools and universities to close on March 11, 2020. Education has since taken place via internet, radio, and television. In January 2021, the Education Ministry once again delayed reopening, planned for February, saying schools would stay shuttered until further notice.
- Other updates:
- On May 27, the president said he plans to push for a reform that would completely overhaul the country’s governmental structure. “We have the support of 97 percent of the population,” said Bukele, who had an approval rating of 92.5 percent, per a poll published May 24 by La Prensa Gráfica. The president also said “the majority of legislators are delinquents” for failing to come to an agreement about an extension of an emergency decree related to the pandemic. He made the comments after a May 27 meeting with union leaders, who put themselves at the service of the president to pressure the Assembly, potentially through protests, but also by bringing a case against both the legislature and the Supreme Court to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) over the two government branches’ blocking of Bukele’s latest emergency decree. Bukele had promised on May 20 to file the suit, but the head of the IACHR responded that the Commission cannot hear a case in which one branch of government sues another.
- Bukele said on May 26 that he is using hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug endorsed by Trump. The president, who noted the drug is no longer part of the country’s health protocols to treat the pandemic, said he is taking it as a preventative measure.
- Per a May 21 ElSalvador.com report, the U.S. State Department sent a memorandum to the U.S. Congress in which it determined that El Salvador has met conditions to continue receiving aid but cautioned about Bukele’s lack of transparency, attacks on the press, and efforts to weaken institutions amid the pandemic. On May 18, the U.S. ambassador to El Salvador called on the three branches of El Salvador’s government to reduce confrontation. On June 15, a date that marks 157 years of bilateral relations, the U.S. ambassador announced $5 million in aid for El Salvador, with $3 million for food and $2 million for hygiene kits to help those affected by COVID-19 and Tropical Storm Amanda. This sum is on top of more than $73 million in aid since March 2020 to help mitigate the effects of both emergencies.
- The wear and tear on El Salvador’s institutions has not escaped international attention. On May 19, the UN secretary general urged the Bukele government to take legal routes to combat the pandemic, and to “act in a responsible manner with respect for human rights, democratic institutions, and the rule of law.” This came after a May 16 interview with France 24 in which UN High Commissioner on Human Rights Michelle Bachelet raised similar concerns.
- On May 11, private sector leaders and academics quit a committee charged with overseeing the spending of $2 billion in pandemic-related funds after they said Bukele’s government failed to provide necessary information for them to effectively conduct an audit.
- On April 29, two U.S. congressmen—Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Eliot Engel (D-NY) and Chairman of the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere Albio Sires (D-NJ)—wrote a letter urging Bukele not to use the pandemic as an excuse to discard constitutional and human rights in response to images of extreme measures being taken in Salvadoran prisons. El Salvador experienced a surge in violence between April 24 and April 26, with more than 50 murders taking place over the course of those three days. On April 26, Bukele said gangs were taking advantage of authorities’ focus on the pandemic and announced that police and armed forces had permission to use lethal force in cases of self-defense or defense of others. In addition, the presidency announced prisoners who are members of rival gangs would be mixed within cells and shared images of inmates packed together in human chains. Additionally, El Faro reported on April 24 that the country’s human rights body had uncovered evidence of illegal detentions and cruel treatment during the course of the country’s quarantine.
- In an April 21 tweet showing himself alone with a mask on and seated behind a giant desk, Bukele said rumors he had been kidnapped by extraterrestrials were unfounded.
- Bukele thanked Alibaba founder Jack Ma via Twitter on April 5 for a donation of 100,000 masks, more than 10,000 test kits, and five ventilators.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: In January 2021, the World Bank forecasts that El Salvador will see growth of 4.6 percent in 2021 while ECLAC forecasts that the country’s 2020 contraction will end up being 8.6 percent.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: On May 5, the National Assembly approved a $1 billion plan to stimulate economic recovery that included measures such as loans for small enterprises and financing for business owners in the informal sector. On April 14, the IMF gave El Salvador a $389 emergency assistance loan—the first from the agency to the country in over 30 years, reports Latin Finance.
- Social programs:
- The government and the private sector came to a $1 billion agreement on April 23 to provide basic foodstuffs to 1.7 million families; $600 million in low-interest loans to micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises; $90 million in credits to the informal sector; and delays on corporate tax payments and income taxes.
- On March 21, in conjunction with imposing quarantine, the president announced a subsidy of roughly $300 per house for about 75 percent of Salvadoran households. He also threatened against corruption related to economic relief measures, saying 60 auditors would be reviewing disbursement and that “I will make a prisoner of anyone who touches even a cent.” In addition, he has frozen the prices of basic goods and warned against price gouging.
- On March 18, Bukele announced a plan suspending utility, phone, and internet bills for three months to be paid back over the course of the subsequent two years. The president also froze payments on items such as mortgages, cars and motorcycles, and credit cards.
- Other updates:
- 2020 remittances hit a record level,with U.S.-based Salvadorans sending back 4.8 percent more than the prior year.
- An August 26 report by ElSalvador.com suggests a slow recovery after the extended quarantine that could last as long as four years. In the country’s restaurant sector alone, at least 30 percent of businesses have closed and 40,000 jobs have been lost.
- On June 4, foundation FUSADES released a report in which it projected that, as a result of the pandemic, the portion of Salvadorans living in extreme poverty will rise from roughly 30 percent to more than 50 percent. FUSADES also projected that the economy could contract by as much as 7.4 percent.
Spread
- January 19: 151,324 confirmed cases, 5,343 deaths
- January 12: 145,986 confirmed cases, 5,117 deaths
- December 15: 130,082 confirmed cases, 4,476 deaths
- November 17: 115,730 confirmed cases, 3,947 deaths
- October 20: 102,415 confirmed cases, 3,567 deaths
- September 22: 87,442 confirmed cases, 3,154 deaths
- August 25: 70,714 confirmed cases, 2,662 deaths
- August 4: 53,509 confirmed cases, 2,072 deaths
- July 7: 24,787 confirmed cases, 1,004 deaths
- June 9: 7,866 confirmed cases, 289 deaths
- May 12: 1,199 confirmed cases, 27 deaths
- April 14: 180 confirmed cases, 5 deaths
- March 17: 6 confirmed cases, 1 death
- March 15: First death
- March 13: First confirmed case
- President Alejandro Giammattei confirmed the country’s first case, involving a man who had returned from northern Italy. On March 15, the Health Ministry confirmed the first death.
- On September 18, Giammattei revealed that he had tested positive for coronavirus. The 64-year-old described himself as high risk. On the same day the government announced the culture minister had tested positive as well.
- On December 8, Edwin Asturias, the person charged with leading the country’s coronavirus response, revealed he would be stepping down to return to his job at the University of Colorado. Leadership of the pandemic fell back to the Health Ministry.
- On August 6, the president said he is moving on to handle other issues aside from the pandemic and that his government is passing along the responsibility to the public to take care of itself. The remarks led two civil society complaints to file an August 10 legal complaint against the president for failure to meet duties. The head of one of the groups also said the complaint is aggravated by his government’s failure to appropriately assign emergency funding for the pandemic.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: In January, Guatemala’s legislature approved a motion to purchase additional vaccines. In December 2020, the president said the legislation will allow for the country to acquire 2.5 million additional vaccine doses. The type of vaccine intended to be purchased was not shared at time of the announcement. The Health Ministry inaugurated a refrigerated facility on December 15 to prepare for the arrival of vaccines. Guatemala is part of the COVAX vaccine plan through which, per El Periódico, means the country will receive 6.7 million doses for 3 million people (the country has a population of 18 million) in the first half of 2021. A December 13 Prensa Libre article said experts expect the vaccine will arrive in the country in March 2021.
- Reopening plan: On October 28, Giammattei warned that “the second wave has arrived” but suggested that this required responsible behavior rather than rolling back reopening measures. Since that point, the country was struck by two hurricanes—Eta and Iota—involving widespread flooding and turning the country’s attention to natural disasters.
- The government suspended partial curfews—in place since March—starting October 1 and permitted the reopening of recreation spaces ranging from archaeological sites to national parks to gyms. Municipalities must follow a color-coded alert system announced in July that runs from red (least safe) to green (safest) that defines occupancy and circulation rates, with greater occupancy allowed in towns with lower levels of contagion. As of October 17, 122 of Guatemala’s 340 municipalities were at alert level red. The country began its process on July 26, allowing for the reopening of businesses such as shopping centers and restaurants. The president mapped out the color-coded reopening plan on July 12 based on the number of active cases per 100,000 residents to determine when each town could reopen. Alert levels are to be assessed every 15 days. This came after he referred to reopening on July 8 by saying, “For the municipality that behaves the best, that has less contagion, the prize will be having greater levels of reopening each day.”
- Mitigation measures: Guatemala’s containment measures were based on a state of calamity first announced on March 6 for 30 days and extended each month since then. On August 25, despite not having a quorum, the legislature approved the president’s request for another extension of the state of calamity for 30 more days. The state of calamity allows the government to enforce a range of measures over time, from preventing price gouging to halting gatherings. Measures include:
- On June 14, with confirmed cases rising above 300 per day, the president limited vehicular transit based on license plate numbers. The measure focused on departments with a high number of cases on most days and nationwide restrictions on the movement of cars and people on Sundays. He announced an extension of the measure on June 28 for 15 days with slightly modified rules.
- On May 14, the president declared a total shutdown of the country on weekends, with only trucks transporting essential goods or people with grave illnesses permitted to circulate during that time. He then suspended the weekend lockdowns on May 31, and reduced overnight curfews to run from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. The initial curfew, which began on March 22 and ran nightly from 4 p.m. to 4 a.m., was extended on March 29 and April 12, with hours initially reduced on April 19.
- On May 10, with confirmed cases exceeding 1,000 for the first time, the president announced that markets would be closed in cases where social distancing is not practiced, shopping malls will be fined even for partial opening, people spreading rumors about the pandemic would be subject to punishment, hospitals that do not inform on coronavirus cases or violate protocols would face sanctions, and transit between the country’s departments would be restricted on a national level.
- On March 14, the Health Ministry suspended religious events, gatherings of more than 100 people, and Easter celebrations. Then, on March 17, the government prohibited events of any size, halted public transport, ended visits to institutions housing senior citizens, closed shopping malls, prohibited drinking after 5 p.m., and suspended visits to prisons. Shops had to close from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. except in the case of pharmacies and essential basic services.
- Travel and border restrictions: Six months after closing them, Guatemala began to reopen its borders with Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico starting September 18. On September 10, Giammattei issued a decree allowing for national and international flights starting September 18 as well. Travelers entering the country are required to show they had a negative coronavirus test in the 72 hours prior to traveling or face 14 days of isolated quarantine.
- The Guatemalan government closed all forms of borders on March 17, prohibiting entry by foreigners. Prior to that, Giammattei announced March 13 that he would restrict travel from the United States and Canada, thereby expanding an earlier travel ban involving any country where community transmission had occurred. On March 15, the Health Ministry added European foreign nationals to the list. His government had already imposed travel restrictions on people returning from China as early as January. The restrictions allowed Guatemalans to enter from countries on the travel prohibition list, but required them to self-quarantine.
- A September 9 EFE article reports that the United States has deported roughly 5,200 Guatemalans back to their country since the start of the pandemic. On May 21, Giammattei said: “Guatemala is an ally of the United States, but I don’t believe the U.S. is an ally to Guatemala, because they don’t treat us like one.” On more than one occasion, the Guatemalan government, which has criticized the Trump administration for sending coronavirus-infected deportees to the country, announced it was halting deportation flights from the United States, but those flights have generally continued. Before that, on May 20, Giammattei asked Mexico for more health controls to ensure that Guatemalan deportees are not sent to the country with coronavirus.
- School closings and restrictions: In late September, the Education Ministry confirmed that schools will not reopen in 2020 and announced a hybrid system of in-person and distance learning will be implemented in 2021. With the classes concluding on December 15, the Ministry announced that public school classes would restart on February 15 and private school classes could begin January 4. Schools located in the highest alert level (red) would continue to run virtual classes. Early in the pandemic, the government announced on March 14 that schools would close for three weeks but this time period was extended.
- Other updates:
- The president sacked Health Minister Hugo Monroy on June 19 and replaced him with María Amelia Flores González, who has more than 30 years of public health experience and served in the administration of ex-President Óscar Berger. Monroy had faced criticism for a lack of transparency in his management of the health crisis. On June 16, Acción Ciudadana, a Guatemalan organization focused on transparency issues, called on country’s top prosecutor office to strip Monroy of political immunity for violating the right to access to information, given “systematic opacity” when it came to the delivery of coronavirus figures, particularly in terms of death counts. Monroy acknowledged technical errors in the counts. The new health minister began an audit of the counts on June 20, after which it launched a new COVID-19 data platform on July 18 that reflects the Ministry's ongoing efforts to review its counts.
- Per a May 27 report, Guatemala is among five Latin American countries witnessing an accelerated increase in food prices. In early April, Guatemalans began taking to the streets with white flags, asking for money to alleviate hunger. After that, per the Guardian, a color-based flag system has come into use in which red flags represents a need for medicine while “black, yellow, or blue means that a woman, child or elderly person is in danger of violence.”
- The president completed his first 100 days in office on April 23. Of that time, 51 days were during this state of health calamity.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: ECLAC forecasts a GDP contraction of 2.5 percent for Guatemala in 2020.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: On June 10, the IMF’s executive board approved $594 million in emergency assistance to Guatemala amid the pandemic. On March 12, Congress approved the president’s proposed state of calamity bill with a fund of roughly $30 million for prevention and containment.
- Social programs:
- On July 10, the Labor Ministry announced that companies unable to pay the Bono 14—a bonus employers pay to private-sector workers in the first 15 days of July—need to prove so via a judicial declaration and can then receive a credit to meet the requirement. Nomada.gt contends the measure provides greater protections to employers than workers.
- On May 7, Nomada.gt detailed the 10 government assistance programs set up to mitigate the pandemic’s economic effects, ranging from a daily minimum payment of $10 for workers laid off in the formal sector, to foodstuffs and food coupons for vulnerable populations, to a daily credit going to 200,000 families to cover breakfasts for public school students.
- On April 29, Giammattei vetoed an April 3 legislative measure that would have guaranteed citizens access to basic services during the pandemic. On April 30, the legislature overturned the veto. On May 3, Giammattei, said no law was needed as he had come to an agreement with business leaders that water, electricity, phone, and internet services will not be suspended in cases of unpaid bills and that people could negotiate one-year repayment plans with these companies. On May 21, legislation guaranteeing public services during the pandemic was published in the government’s official gazette.
- On March 25, the Guatemalan Congress approved an emergency bill named the "Emergency Law to Protect Guatemalans from the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic" with a fund of roughly $480 million to cover elderly, health, employment, security, and economic programs during the emergency.
- Other updates:
- After decreases in March and April, remittances to Guatemala steadily rose and, in July, broke the record for the highest monthly amount. In 2019, remittances to Guatemala represented 13.1 percent of that country’s GDP.
- A July 14 report by Guatemalan business group CACIF says that the country saw a loss of 104,000 jobs and $2.1 billion in sales between March 15 and July 7.
- The crisis wrought by the coronavirus could push 300,000 Guatemalans into extreme poverty, per a June 16 joint report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and the Food and Agriculture Organization. In addition, some 3.5 million Guatemalans will not have sufficient income to adequately feed themselves this year.
Spread
- January 19: 136,068 confirmed cases, 3,391 deaths
- January 12: 129,805 confirmed cases, 3,294 deaths
- December 15: 114,943 confirmed cases, 3,001 deaths
- November 17: 103,488 confirmed cases, 2,839 deaths
- October 20: 90,232 confirmed cases, 2,581 deaths
- September 22: 72,306 confirmed cases, 2,206 deaths
- August 25: 55,877 confirmed cases, 1,703 deaths
- August 4: 44,299 confirmed cases, 1,400 deaths
- July 7: 25,428 confirmed cases, 677 deaths
- June 9: 6,935 confirmed cases, 271 deaths
- May 12: 2,080 confirmed cases, 121 deaths
- April 14: 419 confirmed cases, 31 deaths
- March 26: First death
- March 17: 9 confirmed cases
- March 11: First 2 confirmed cases
- The country’s first cases involved two women who traveled to Europe: a 42-year-old who arrived from Spain and a 37-year-old who returned from Switzerland.
- Honduras confirmed its first death on March 26.
- President Juan Orlando Hernández announced the night of June 16 that he and his wife had tested positive for COVID-19, becoming the first sitting Latin American head of state to do so. Hernández was subsequently hospitalized with pneumonia on June 17, after which his doctors described his state as delicate but stable. He was released from the hospital on July 2.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: The first of Honduras’ 3.8 million vaccine doses are set to begin arriving in February; 1.9 million of them are Pfizer vaccines promised to Honduras through COVAX, which is a coordinated procurement effort led by the World Health Organization and the Global Alliance of Vaccines and Immunizations. The other 1.9 million vaccine doses are from AstraZeneca.
- The Honduran Institute of Social Security teamed up with the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise to order 1.4 million vaccines from AstraZeneca.
- Reopening plan: The country’s reopening plan began on June 8 according to the scheme drafted by the multisector body in charge of overseeing the country’s reopening strategy. The plan, announced on May 29, divides the country into three non-contiguous regions, each comprising municipalities based on their number of confirmed cases and population sizes. The first region, with those municipalities with the fewest cases, has a three-phase reopening while the third region, with the most, will go through five. Accordingly, 60 percent of workers returned to their posts in municipalities in the first region, 40 percent in the second, and 20 percent in the third. Below is a list of the phases that have gone into effect so far as well as any interruptions:
- Flooding and heavy rains from Category 4 Hurricane Eta and Category 5 Hurricane Iota hit Honduras in November, forcing government-led evacuations to temporary shelters across the country and derailing its staged reopening. Difficulties in creating social distancing in shelters and access to clean water create new barriers to virus containment in the country, according to Health Minister Alba Consuelo Flores. The positive test rate for COVID-19 in temporary shelters is 33 percent as of November 11.
- The country moved on to Phase 1 of the government’s reopening process on July 29, except a number of municipalities with high rates of contagion and hospitalizations, which remain in Phase 0. The government’s decision came a day after the multisector body tasked with overseeing the reopening of the Honduran economy called on the government to reactivate the economy. Phase 2 began September 28.
- Before that decision, nine districts and cities, including the one that houses the capital Tegucigalpa, had reverted to Phase 0 due to a spike in cases while the rest of the country had remained in Phase 1. Phase 1 initially went into effect June 8. Prior to that, all three regions kicked off reopening on June 1 with “Week 0,” a period during which sectors had to make the necessary preparations to meet the biosafety protocols established May 4 by Honduras’ Labor Secretariat.
- Mitigation measures: On January 11, 2021 the government extended the national curfew following over a dozen previous extensions between April and December, 2020. The curfew runs from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. and businesses can operate at 50 percent capacity. Since August 22, Hondurans are allowed to transit during the weekends based on identification card restrictions, after months of total weekend lockdowns. Below are other measures the Honduran government has taken:
- The Honduran government planned to put all coronavirus-related movement restrictions on pause from November 4 to 8 during a national holiday to boost economic activity and tourism. The plan was cancelled and emergency evacuation orders were issued due to Hurricane Eta.
- The government launched an initiative on June 15 to deploy medical brigades to areas in the country that have been hit the hardest by COVID-19, where they will scout for possible cases and provide basic treatment.
- Through an April 3 statement, Honduras’ emergency management system (SINAGER) called on local governments to identify plots of land that could be used for mass graves in case the number of deaths surpasses the country’s capacity to process corpses. SINAGER also announced that it was barring all wakes and in-hospital autopsies.
- A state of exception went into effect on March 16 for seven days that allowed for the suspension of constitutional rights for seven days. Before that decree, the country’s national risk management agency announced on March 15 the suspension of all commercial and work activities, any events regardless of number of people, and public transportation, and reminded people that failure to comply could result in criminal charges.
- On March 14, the government decreed a two-week long national red alert.
- Travel and border restrictions: In December, Honduras began restricting entry of people who have been to the UK or South Africa within the last 21 days over concerns about the new coronavirus strands. Land borders with El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua reopened on October 19. Travelers entering Honduras must pre-register and present a negative rapid COVID-19 test or a PCR test upon entry. Starting June 19, a four-phase reopening plan of airports went into effect. Under the first phase, domestic and international airlines had to submit biosecurity manuals to Honduras’ aeronautics agency. Phase 2 will involve the gradual reopening of domestic travel while phase three will involve international travel. Phase 4 will be reached when all operations have resumed. After a halt in the airport reopening process, domestic flights resumed on August 10 and international flights on August 17. Hernández announced the closing of all borders on March 15 with the exception of Honduran nationals and permanent residents.
- On August 10, the government announced a series of measures for incoming foreigners. Beyond having to fill out an epidemiological survey, foreigners will also have to present a negative molecular or rapid test result done up to 72 hours prior to their arrival in Honduras. Passengers who fail to meet these requirements will be examined by health personnel at the airports.
- When it comes to deportation flights, such flights have continued in spite of a March 10 suspension by the Honduran government. Authorities announced that, as of April 29, Honduras had four temporary isolation centers that can accommodate up to 1,050 deportees. Upon arrival, deportees will be required to undergo 14 days of mandatory quarantines in these centers.
- School closings and restrictions: Schools and universities remain closed under the national curfew and it is unclear when they will reopen. Some classes are taking place virtually, but only 40 percent of Hondurans have access to the internet. Initially, the government announced that all public and private schools would be closed for two weeks starting March 13.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: ECLAC’s December 2020 report forecasts an 8 percent GDP contraction in 2020—a record for Honduras.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: When it comes to international organizations, the Honduran Congress approved on July 29 a series of loans from multilateral organizations totaling more than $109 million. Prior to that, the Central American Bank for Economic Integration announced on April 21 that it approved a $200 million contingent credit line for Honduras to “strengthen the position and liquidity management capacity” of the bank. Before that, the World Bank approved a credit worth $119 million on April 10 and the IMF disbursed $143 million on March 31.
- On the domestic front, the Honduran Congress approved a measure on July 16 that allows municipalities to use up to 45 percent of the $11.4 billion national budget to combat the pandemic.
- Additionally, the BCH approved a package of monetary policies to free up $465.5 million, the bank announced April 7. Among the policies, the bank announced the reduction of mandatory investments in the national currency along with a reduction in the BCH credit interest rate. In an extraordinary session on April 2, the Honduran Congress approved a number of economic measures aimed at alleviating the country’s productive sector and supporting workers including the creation of a trust to guarantee loans for the agricultural sector and micro, small, and medium-sized businesses. The legislature also authorized the presidency to issue debt worth up to $2.5 billion.
- Social programs: As of mid-June, 70 percent of furloughed workers received bonuses as part of the Temporary Solidarity Contribution program, per government figures released June 10. On June 16, the government extended a measure until August 31 that delayed income tax payments for micro, small, and medium-sized business employees, which account for 70 percent of the workforce in the country.
- Other updates:
- Per a July 2 report from the UN World Food Program (WFP), more than 1.6 million Hondurans are suffering from food insecurity during the COVID-19 crisis, a sharp increase from the less than one million food-insecure Hondurans prior to the pandemic. The WFP will launch a humanitarian aid program in the country to help 250,000 food-insecure families for three months.
“We need to understand that health security is national and global security,” says the University of Miami president and ex-health minister of Mexico.
Spread
- January 19: 1,668,396 confirmed cases, 142,832 deaths
- January 12: 1,556,028 cases, 135,682 deaths
- December 15: 1,267,202 confirmed cases, 115,099 deaths
- November 17: 1,011,153 confirmed cases, 99,026 deaths
- October 20: 860,714 confirmed cases, 86,893 deaths
- September 22: 705,263 confirmed cases, 74,348 deaths
- August 25: 568,621 confirmed cases, 61,450 deaths
- August 4: 449,961 confirmed cases, 48,869 deaths
- July 7: 268,008 confirmed cases, 32,014 deaths
- June 9: 124,301 confirmed cases, 14,649 deaths
- May 12: 38,324 confirmed cases, 3,926 deaths
- April 14: 5,399 confirmed cases, 406 deaths
- March 18: First death
- March 17: 93 confirmed cases
- March 10: 7 confirmed cases
- March 3: 5 confirmed cases
- February 28: First confirmed case
- The country confirmed its first case, involving a 35-year-old man in Mexico City on February 28.
- Mexico’s first death, involving a 41-year-old man with diabetes, was confirmed on March 18. As he had not traveled, his case was one of local transmission, though Mexico would not enter a phase of community transmission until March 24.
- Confirmed cases and death counts are shared during a nightly 7 p.m. press conference that is typically led by Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell. The deputy minister has repeatedly shifted and delayed his forecast of when Mexico would see its peak number of cases, going back to as early as the first week of May. On November 30, the WHO’s director general expressed concern about rising cases and deaths in Mexico, encouraging the country’s leaders to use face masks in order to model the behavior for the population at large. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has eschewed wearing a mask and was first seen wearing one on July 7 when traveling on a commercial flight to Washington for meetings at the White House. López-Gatell has given mixed messages on the importance of face mask use and drew attention when, amid escalating contagion during Christmas and New Year holidays and Mexicans being encouraged to stay home, he flew on a commercial flight to take a beach vacation and was photographed at different points on the trip without a mask.
- Mexico’s extremely low rates of testing have come under scrutiny and, while the country ranks among the world’s worst affected, confirmed case counts are thought to be dramatic undecounts. As of January 12, Mexico’s coronavirus testing rate—among the lowest in Latin America—stood at 28.06 per 1,000 people, compared to a rate of 365.19 per 1,000 in regional testing leader Chile and 807.72 per 1,000 in the United States. On January 14, a Wall Street Journal editor reported that Brazil (population 212 million) had conducted about 29 million tests and Mexico (population 129 million) had conducted only 3.6 million.
- Mexico exceeded 140,000 deaths on January 16. In June, López-Gatell had said exceeding 60,000 deaths would be a “catastrophic scenario,” however, the toll is likely much higher than 100,000. Per official figures, from January 1 through the middle of December 2020, Mexico had seen 274,486 more deaths than would have been anticipated for this period, for an excess mortality rate of more than 40. In a September 2020 article for El Universal, one mathematician calculated that the Health Ministry could be underreporting coronavirus deaths by nearly 70 percent.
- A November 2020 Buendía y Laredo poll found that 59 percent of Mexicans approve of the López Obrador government’s pandemic response, though that figure is down from 73 percent in April 2020. Moreover, 75 percent of November 2020 respondents say the plan needs adjusting.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: The AMLO government announced its vaccination plan on December 8, including a five-stage rollout that began with a first phase starting in December focusing on health workers attending to patients with the coronavirus. After that, there will be an age-based schedule beginning with people 80 years and older, followed by 10-year age blocks with the goal of vaccinating those 60 years and older in February and March. In the third phase, people 50 to 59, then 40 to 49 can get vaccinated in April and May. The last phase, involving Mexicans under 40, starts in June and is expected to run through March 2022. López-Gatell said the armed forces will aid with the vaccine’s rollout.
- As of January 19, more than 498,000 people had been vaccinated with at least an initial dose, per the Health Ministry.
- On January 20, the active substance to produce the two-dose AstraZeneca vaccine arrived in Mexico from Argentina to produce 6 million doses that are estimated to be ready for use as early as late March. On January 4, Mexico approved use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine. On August 13, the Mexican government announced that, in partnership with Argentina, the two countries would produce a vaccine being developed by Oxford University. With initial production of 150 million doses, which the president said would be available in the first quarter of 2021 production would be funded by billionaire Carlos Slim in partnership with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. At this time, López Obrador said distribution in Mexico would be “universal and free.”
- On January 19, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard shared information about upcoming vaccine shipments and approvals. The Russian vaccine, one-dose Sputnik V, is slated to start getting shipped to Mexico by the end of January, with the government having procured 7.4 million doses overall. Ebrard said approval for use of the one-dose CanSino vaccine would come submitted in the coming week and that the first of 6.9 million doses would begin to arrive in February. In the case of both vaccines, concerns have been raised about efficacy rates due to a lack of transparency around testing. The rush to secure Russian and Chinese vaccines is in part related to a delay in vaccine deliveries from Pfizer, which has slowed distribution in order to expand its production capacity.
- On January 17, the official in charge of Mexico’s vaccination plan, Miriam Veras Godoy, resigned, citing personal reasons.
- On December 27, a government spokesman tweeted the vaccine doses for which Mexico had thus far signed accords to arrive in 2021: 34 million doses of Pfizer (which is a two dose vaccine), 77.4 million of AstraZeneca (two dose), 35 million of CanSino (one dose), and 51.5 million via the WHO’s multilateral COVAX plan.
- On December 24, the country began to vaccinate the first of its 1.4 million health workers after an initial shipment of 3,000 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine arrived a day earlier. On December 11, Mexico became the fourth country in the world and first in Latin America to authorize use of the Pfizer vaccine.
- Reopening plan: The Mexican government announced its three-phase reopening plan to achieve a “new normal” on May 13, kicking off the first phase on May 18. That phase involved more than 300 towns dubbed “municipalities of hope” that had no confirmed coronavirus cases and were given the green light to reopen, although some governors and local authorities delayed due to a concern over lack of testing and pandemic spread. The second stage, which ran from May 18 to 31, involved preparations to reopen the country. The third stage began June 1 and involves a regular assessment within each of the country’s 32 states to determine reopening of social, educational, and economic activities based on a color-coded system running from red (more restrictive) to green (less restrictive, schools and public spaces can reopen). Although the initial announcement suggested the reopening of sectors deemed essential—including construction, auto manufacturing, and mining—this became less clear on May 14 when a government gazette suggested these sectors would be preparing to reopen during this time but would not restart until June 1. The government made a change again on May 15 when it said auto sector plants could restart operations before June 1 in cases where health and safety requirements had been met.
- As of January 18, the Health Ministry had 10 states at alert level red, as well as 19 states at alert level orange, two at alert level yellow, and just one—Campeche—at alert level green. This represents a sharp uptick in contagion and hospitalizations in various parts of the country, given that Mexico ended 2020 with just three states at alert level red and began the year with five. In particular, there has been particular concern in the capital, where the Health Ministry delayed declaring a red alert until December 20, even though, as of the end of November, its hospital occupancy rate not only hit the 65 percent level that would push the capital back into red status, but continued to climb. While hospital occupancy has since at times risen above 90 percent in Mexico City, as of January 16, it stood at 89 percent.
- On June 13, López Obrador released a decalogue outlining how to prepare for the “new normal,” with recommendations including staying informed about the state of health in the country, remaining optimistic, avoiding junk food, exercising, and seeking out a spiritual—even if not religious—path. On June 14, the president released a video saying the most difficult part of the pandemic was over, even though, on June 10, the WHO warned that Mexico is facing its “most dangerous moment." On July 12, the president again said the pandemic is on the decline in Mexico. On the same day, the country surpassed Italy to become the country with the fourth-highest coronavirus death toll worldwide.
- In keeping with the reactivation plan, López Obrador restarted his domestic travels on June 1. He made the first international trip of his presidency on July 7 when he headed to the United States for an official meeting with Trump to celebrate the July 1 implementation of the USMCA trade deal. Early in pandemic days, López Obrador’s lax approach to the virus drew concern from some observers, particularly in March, when the president continued to spend weekends traveling through Mexico and shared videos on social media in which he could be seen making physical contact with supporters. He subsequently changed his tone, and, on April 15, the office of the president announced that López Obrador would suspend his tours.
- Mitigation measures: May 31 marked the last day of Mexico’s National Period of Healthy Distancing ahead of the June 1 start of a “new normal” and staggered reactivation of the economy. However, López Obrador indicated on June 1 that a new outbreak could lead to new periods of social distancing. Below is a timeline of mitigation efforts:
- In much of the country, November 2020 events commemorating Day of the Dead were cancelled and pantheons indicated plans to keep gates shuttered. Mexico City also limited December 12 celebrations for the Virgin of Guadalupe. The day typically involves pilgrims coming from around the country to the capital. Instead, the Basilica de Guadalupe, where the Virgin’s image is housed, plans to hold virtual events.
- On May 3, López-Gatell clarified that Mexico was no longer following the Sentinel Surveillance technique, which focuses on monitoring over widespread testing, given that the country entered Phase 3 on April 21. Instead, Mexico has shifted to a method based on hospital occupancy and available beds.
- The government announced on April 21 that the country had entered Phase 3, when there would be a rapid increase in cases and hospitalizations. López-Gatell indicated that social distancing measures implemented in Phase 2 would continue and he urged all companies engaged in non-essential work that had not yet shut down to do so.
- On the evening of March 30, Ebrard declared a national health emergency. This came as López-Gatell announced suspension of all non-essential activities, no gatherings of more than 50 people in the case of essential sectors, and self-quarantine for people over 60 and at-risk health populations. Ebrard clarified that the emergency measure is not a state of exception involving armed authorities and that companies that avoided paying workers or defied rules could face sanctions. On the morning of March 31, López-Gatell shared a list of essential services, which range from tax collection to elderly care centers to supermarkets.
- On March 24, the government declared that the country had entered Phase 2 of the epidemic after the WHO categorized it among countries with community transmission. The government suspended public and private gatherings of 100 people or more. In addition, the Finance Ministry said it would provide roughly $180 million to the Defense Ministry and Navy for measures such as expanding hospitalization capacity, coordinating with states and municipalities, and deploying thousands of health professionals. On the following day, López-Gatell said the federal government would stop all non-essential operations.
- On March 20, the Health Ministry revealed a new character, Susana Distancia, to illustrate how far apart people should stay from each other. Her name is a play on words: su sana distancia, or “your healthy distance.”
- Travel and border restrictions: The U.S. and Mexican governments announced January 11 that they would be extending border restrictions—first implemented March 21, 2020 and extended monthly for North America since—until February 24. The restrictions apply to non-essential crossings but not commerce. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Christopher Landau tweeted on September 8 that the State Department lowered its coronavirus-related travel warning for Mexico from Level 4 (don’t travel) to Level 3 (reconsider travel). Mexico is the top international destination for U.S. travelers and there have been numerous stories published by major media outlets that tourists, facing restrictions in much of the world, are taking trips to Mexico and contributing to contagion.
- Mexico’s immigration agency reported on April 26, 2020 that it had nearly emptied its detention centers and that the total number of migrants still being held had been reduced to just over 100 after deporting 3,653 people to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.
- School closings and restrictions: Schools closed in March 2020 and have yet to reopen. In October 2020, the education minister said that schools would not open in a rushed manner. He previously announced on August 3 that schools would not reopen for the August 24 start of the academic year and would remain closed until alert level green is reached. Public school students are to be taught through a televised study program broadcast by major Mexican television networks. The government said that 94 percent of Mexican families have televisions, and that students without access to television or internet will access the programming via radio. The country’s social security system announced the reopening of daycare centers starting July 9, with those in “red zones” at 25 percent capacity and only serving the children of essential workers.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: Per a December 16 report, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean forecast Mexico’s GDP contraction for 2020 would be 9 percent and that it would see 3.8 percent growth in 2021. After months of gloomy GDP indicators, Mexico saw a 12 percent bounce in the third quarter, thanks to the reopening and per preliminary figures. GDP contracted 18.7 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2020, marking its biggest tumble since it began being registered in 1993 and the fifth consecutive quarter of GDP contraction.
- On May 21, the president announced that the country will start measuring an alternative GDP index that takes into account areas such as well-being, social inequality, and happiness.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- The austerity-focused López Obrador government has resisted a broad stimulus package, with the Financial Times reporting in January 2021 that his stimulus plan is equivalent to 1.1 percent of GDP—less than a quarter of the regional average—and an eighth of what Brazil has spent, based on proportion of GDP.
- A June 2020 FT report found that Mexico’s microloan program, which initially offered 1 million credits on March 24 and has been expanded to 4 million, had distributed about 1.5 million credits and with no loan larger than $1,100. As of May 22, López Obrador said his administration had given out $1.9 billion in microloans to homeowners, the formally and informally employed, and SMEs, with the goal to award $13 billion in credits overall.
- On April 26, a business association known as the Mexican Business Council announced a private-sector agreement with the Inter-American Development Bank to help give loans of up to $12 billion to about 30,000 micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises amid the pandemic. During his April 27 press conference, López Obrador expressed suspicion of the pact, saying, “I don’t like the way they come to an agreement and want to impose their plans. Things aren’t like they used to be.” Also during the morning conference, the labor minister named companies that had not complied with work suspension rules.
- On April 22, López Obrador announced an 11-point economic plan amid the pandemic. Measures include pay cuts of as much as 25 percent for high-level public workers, the elimination of 10 deputy minister posts, and a commitment to austerity. His administration’s social programs and infrastructure projects—such as the Dos Bocas oil refinery, an airport expansion, and a train system—will continue. The president had previously confirmed that these major projects would go ahead in an April 5 speech.
- In an extraordinary session on April 21, Banco de México unveiled a $31 billion stimulus and cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 6.0 percent. Taken together with prior measures, the moves amount to 3.3 percent of the 2019 GDP and will cover financing for banks to boost credit for small- and medium-sized businesses, as well as implement hedge transactions to decrease the peso’s volatility. The Bank had previously taken the same step on March 20, when it trimmed the rate to 6.50 percent.
- Social programs:
- On June 24, the president announced that, due to the pandemic, pension deposits for senior citizens would be advanced for the months of July through October. Pension payments have been advanced on previous occasions, with the first time announced on March 18.
- López Obrador announced on May 14 that life insurance will be provided to health workers attending coronavirus patients.
- Other updates:
- Remittances continued their strong showing in July, up 7 percent year on year, per a September 1 Reuters article. Per a June 30 report by the Bank of Mexico, remittances rose year-on-year by 10 percent in the first five months of 2020. The increase was aided in part by the peso’s depreciation; Bloomberg reports that the average remittance transaction in May was $319 compared to $322 a year earlier.
- On June 30, Aeromexico filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with the goal of restructuring its debt. Per a June 10 national statistics agency report, the Mexican tourism industry saw a 78.5 percent decline in international visitors in April, with the greatest decline—98.1 percent—among those arriving via air travel. Mexico was among the world’s ten most visited countries in 2019 and its tourism sector contributes 8.7 percent of GDP.
- Per a report released June 11 by the national statistics agency, Mexico’s industrial activity dropped 25 percent in April compared to March—the largest monthly decline since data collection began in 1993. The construction and manufacturing sectors were hit hardest, dropping 38 percent and 35 percent, respectively, from the same month a year earlier.
- Official figures released on June 1 show that 12 million people, whether formal or informal laborers, stopped working in April and it is uncertain whether they will return to work. The report also found that about 2.1 million people are actively unemployed and seeking work. A May 13 report by México ¿cómo vamos? that used data from the country’s social security institution found that Mexico experienced a record-setting number of job losses in April, with more than 555,000 jobs lost, due to the economic fallout of the pandemic. On May 14, The Los Angeles Times reported that 10.7 million people—or 8.5 percent of the population—could fall into extreme poverty this year, another 2 million job losses could be added by the end of 2020.
- On May 26, the Bank of Mexico indicated a risk of capital flight; Mexicans transferred more than $5 billion in assets abroad during the first quarter of 2020.
- López Obrador suggested that, once the COVID-19 emergency passes, he would reexamine the country’s pension system while criticizing its prior privatization. Some workers have begun to withdraw funds from their pensions amid the pandemic.
- Pemex posted a $23 billion loss in the first quarter of the year, given a crash in oil prices related to a drop in demand amid the pandemic. On April 20, Mexico’s crude oil exports closed at -$2.37 per barrel, down 116 percent from the April 17 close, when Moody’s downgraded state oil firm Pemex bonds to junk. López Obrador has focused on reviving the country’s sagging oil sector. On April 12, after four days of OPEC+ meetings aimed at slashing production to boost oil prices and with Mexico as the hurdle to closing the deal, the López Obrador government agreed to cut its production by just 100,000 barrels per day (bpd). The United States absorbed the other 300,000 bpd in cuts to hit the group’s global target.
Spread
- January 19: 6,204 confirmed cases, 168 deaths
- January 12: 6,152 confirmed cases, 167 deaths
- December 15: 5,887 confirmed cases, 162 deaths
- November 17: 5,725 confirmed cases, 159 deaths
- October 20: 5,434 confirmed cases, 155 deaths
- September 22: 5,073 confirmed cases, 149 deaths
- August 25: 4,494 confirmed cases, 137 deaths
- August 4: 3,902 confirmed cases, 123 deaths
- July 7: 2,846 confirmed cases, 91 deaths
- June 9: 1,464 confirmed cases, 55 deaths
- May 12: 25 confirmed cases, 8 deaths (See note below.)
- April 14: 9 confirmed cases, 1 death
- March 26: First death
- March 18: First confirmed case
- Vice President Rosario Murillo, wife of President Daniel Ortega, confirmed on March 18 the country’s first case, involving a 40-year-old Nicaraguan man who had traveled to Panama City.
- The Health Ministry confirmed the country’s first death on March 26. Reports emerged in early May of Nicaraguans dying suddenly and without explanation—some in the middle of the street—as health experts worry the deaths could be related to COVID-19.
- An independent, citizen-run COVID-19 registry reported that, as of January 16, Nicaragua had registered 12,114 cases and 2,890 deaths, while a Confidencial investigation published October 11 claims that the coronavirus is responsible for 6,000 deaths that the government attributes to heart attacks, pneumonia, diabetes, and high blood pressure. Per a June 8 Guardian report, at least 20 prominent Sandinistas have died of symptoms similar to those of COVID-19. Among the deceased from Ortega’s political party are ministers, at least three current female members of the National Assembly, and senior advisors.
- Note: After not giving an update on confirmed cases between May 6 and May 11, the Health Ministry announced on May 12 that it would move to weekly reports instead of daily updates. In its weekly update on May 19, the ministry reported a 1,016 percent increase in confirmed cases over the course of one week.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: As of January 14, Nicaragua plans to use three vaccines: Russia’s Sputnik V, AstraZeneca, and India’s Covaxin. Vice President Rosario Murillo claimed that the government has purchased 7.4 million doses of the vaccines. They aim to vaccinate 55% of the population (about 3.7 million people), though they have not announced a start date. On December 2, PAHO Deputy Director Jarbas Barbosa announced that Nicaragua will be among the 10 poorest countries in the region to receive the vaccine free of charge under the WHO’s COVAX program. Vice President and First Lady Murillo said she met with officials from the Ministry of Health and PAHO on November 26 to discuss four coronavirus vaccines under development but did not specify how the government plans to immunize the population.
- Reopening plan: The country has not gone into lockdown and so does not have a reopening strategy.
- Mitigation measures: After being absent for over two weeks as Hurricane Eta approached Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast, Ortega made a public appearance on November 8, stating there were no storm-related deaths, while taking the opportunity to note that the country has the lowest coronavirus mortality rate. Earlier this year, Ortega set a new record for being absent after going missing from the public eye for 38 days between June and July. The president re-emerged in the public eye on July 20 at an event commemorating the forty-first anniversary of the Nicaraguan revolution. Ortega, wearing a face mask for the first time during the pandemic, praised his administration’s efforts during the crisis but did not announce any mitigation measures. The president previously went missing for 34 days between March and April, after which he delivered a televised address saying that Nicaragua hadn’t “stopped working, because if this country stops working, it dies.” Ortega’s administration has not instituted extensive mitigation measures and has even promoted large events. As a result, civil organizations in the country and health organizations across the region have taken the following steps:
- In the wake of the storms’ destruction in indigenous regions, experts warned of the precarious conditions of make-shift shelters, where few are adhering to social distancing guidelines.
- PAHO has repeatedly called on the Nicaraguan government to provide them with precise and transparent information regarding contagion within the country. Moreover, PAHO requested the Ortega administration that it allow a group of representatives from the organization into Nicaragua to strengthen the country’s monitoring strategy and mitigation response, according to a July 20 report by the Nicaraguan newspaper Confidencial. The government has not approved their request.
- In a June 10 statement, leaders from Nicaragua’s private sector called on the government to institute 14 health, economic, and social measures to mitigate the effects of the pandemic in the country.
- Before that, in a June 1 letter, over 30 medical associations in Nicaragua warned that the “exponential increase” in COVID-19 cases in the country has already led to the collapse of both the public and private healthcare systems. The group urged Nicaraguans to come together in a voluntary national four-week quarantine to slow contagion.
- Since then, Nicaragua’s private sector and the Pan-American Health Organization both joined the call for a voluntary quarantine and stricter health measures in mid-June. A month earlier, in a televised May 1 message, Ortega denounced stay-at-home and social distancing orders as “extreme” and “radical” measures that would “destroy the country.”
- Some of the minimal mitigation steps that the government has taken include cleaning and disinfecting some street markets and public transportation units in mid-April. Moreover, per a May 6 report by Confidencial, the government began rotating public employees, asking some to work from home and sending others on vacation to avoid contagion. Murillo stated in mid-April that health authorities had been visiting households across the country to verify their sanitation measures and give each family information about preventive measures. Before authorities confirmed the country’s first case, Ortega’s administration announced in early March that it would ban wakes and funerals for those who die of the virus.
- Travel and border restrictions: After they suspended their services in May, most of the airlines that operate in the country announced on July 24 that they would not resume flights in and out of Nicaragua until at least September.
- An estimated 88,560 Nicaraguans living abroad have re-entered the country since the pandemic started through December 2020.
- On December 3, Venezuelan airline Conviasa resumed flights between Havana, Cuba, and Nicaragua.
- As of November 18, Avianca was the only international airline making trips to the country, which requires travelers to take PCR tests within 72 hours after arrival.
- U.S. airlines United, Spirit, and American were set to resume flights to the country the first week of October, but have since postponed travel until 2021.
- Though the government did not officially order the country’s borders closed, the government prevented the return of Nicaraguan migrants and canceled repatriation flights in mid-April, in late June, and then again in late July. Via a July 27 Twitter thread, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights called on the Ortega government to respect the rights of the hundreds of Nicaraguan migrants who are stranded across border regions in Guatemala, Panama, and Costa Rica after being denied entry into Nicaragua.
- School closings and restrictions: The Education Ministry called on public schools to open on July 21 to start the second semester of the school year. The ministry previously ordered schools to open on April 20 to finish the first semester, though attendance remained low. Schools were initially closed for two weeks in mid-April. Starting in May, a number of universities began offering some courses virtually while others have taken steps to cut the number of students and faculty present on campus any given day by assigning them days of the week.
- Other updates:
- In response to protests by Central American cargo truckers in Costa Rica’s Peñas Blancas near the Nicaraguan border, the Costa Rican government reduced restrictions on October 9 by eliminating the requirement that trucks use GPS tracking and extending truckers' ability to stay in Costa Rica during their trips from five to 10 days.
- An Inter-American Dialogue poll conducted between July 1 and 9 found that 60 percent of Nicaraguans qualify Ortega’s management of the pandemic as “terrible,” with 50 percent of Nicaraguans considering COVID-19 to be the most urgent problem the country faces.
- According to a June 16 report by Confidencial, the government has concealed hundreds of coronavirus-related deaths in the first weeks of June. Similarly, a May 12 report by the Associated Press found that Nicaragua’s government was actively trying to conceal the number of coronavirus-related deaths in the country by burying patients with symptoms similar to COVID-19 quickly after they die—at times within hours of their deaths and without notifying family members.
- Though Nicaragua and Costa Rica reached an agreement on May 30 to reopen their shared border and allow the passage of foreign cargo, Nicaragua did not reopen its borders until May 31. The new agreement outlines that truckers may transit into Costa Rica but will only be allowed five days within the country’s borders. Ortega had ordered on May 18 the suspension of merchandise transited into Nicaragua from Costa Rica in response to that country’s decision to partially close down its borders to foreign cargo earlier that day, leaving 1,000 Nicaraguan truckers stranded. Costa Rica began testing Nicaraguan truckers entering its country on May 8 and said 61 had tested positive when it announced its border closure.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP projections: On December 16, ECLAC revised its projections for the region, estimating a lighter economic contraction, which includes negative 4 percent GDP growth for Nicaragua. June projections from the World Bank show that Nicaragua’s economy will contract by 6.3 percent this year, down from the Bank’s April prediction of a 4.3 contraction.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: On December 8, the World Bank Board of Directors approved $20 million in financing for a Nicaragua COVID-19 Emergency Response Project meant to aid in the provision of medicines and lab and hospital equipment and targeting 6.3 million of the country’s most vulnerable inhabitants. The loan can be used over two years and three months and matures in 30 years. The Inter-American Development Bank announced on August 1 that it approved a loan for Nicaragua totaling $43 million, one that will be strictly supervised by multilateral organizations like the Pan-American Health Organization. The Central Bank of Nicaragua instituted four monetary measures on June 22, including reducing the country’s reference rate, and injected $116 million into the country’s economy. As of May 10, Nicaragua’s government had received at least $15.3 million in economic aid to mitigate the pandemic’s effects from the Central American Bank for Economic Integration, Taiwan’s government, and the Pan American Health Organization. However, the government has not announced any economic measures in relation to these funds.
- Social programs: None have been announced during the pandemic.
- Other updates:
- Per July 7 by Confidencial, the Nicaraguan government has received over 30,000 coronavirus tests in donations from the Pan-American Health Organization, Central American Bank for Economic Integration, and Russia. The fate of these tests remains unknown as the government does not report the total number of tests it has administered.
Spread
- January 19: 301,534 confirmed cases, 4,864 deaths
- January 12: 285,093 confirmed cases, 4,561 deaths
- December 15: 196,987 confirmed cases, 3,411 deaths
- November 17: 148,721 confirmed cases, 2,893 deaths
- October 20: 124,739 confirmed cases, 2,585 deaths
- September 22: 107,284 confirmed cases, 2,285 deaths
- August 25: 88,381 confirmed cases, 1,919 deaths
- August 4: 69,424 confirmed cases, 1,522 deaths
- July 7: 40,291 confirmed cases, 799 deaths
- June 9: 17,233 confirmed cases, 403 deaths
- May 12: 8,783 confirmed cases, 252 deaths
- April 14: 3,574 confirmed cases, 95 deaths
- March 17: 86 confirmed cases, 1 death
- March 10: 8 confirmed cases, first death
- March 9: First confirmed case
- A 40-year-old Panamanian woman who had traveled to Spain became the country’s first confirmed case of coronavirus.
- On March 10, Panama became the second country in Latin America and the first Central America to confirm a coronavirus-related death.
Government response
- Vaccine rollout: The first batch of vaccines arrived in Panama on January 20. It was just 12,840 doses of the Pfizer vaccines, although Panama expected 40,000 doses. Pfizer noted there were production issues on their end, but assured that they will still deliver 450,000 doses by the first quarter of 2021. Panama has four vaccine agreements, including ones with Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Pfizer’s vaccine was approved for emergency use on December 15 and will prioritize people over the age of 60, the chronically sick, people in asylums, teachers, health workers, the armed forces, police, and firefighters. The government’s deal with Pfizer is for a total 3 million doses and its deal with Astrazeneca is for 1 million.
- Reopening plan: President Laurentino Cortizo first announced the six-stage reopening process on May 11, and phase one began on May 13 with the resumption of technical services. Panama entered the second phase of its reopening process on June 1, under which the country has a nightly curfew between 7 p.m. and 5 a.m. As part of the second stage, infrastructure projects and non-metallic mining restarted while sites of social activity, including churches and sports facilities, reopened at 25 percent capacity. The use of face masks is mandatory. The Health Ministry announced on June 24 that the next four reopening phases would vary by province and be determined based on contagion rate and size of population in each area. Though the curfew remained in place nationwide, the government lifted total quarantines on Sundays, starting October 25. On December 15, Health Minister Luisa Francisco Sucre reissued a total quarantine from December 25 to 28 and from January 1 to 4. Two provinces, including Panama City, had their lockdowns extended from January 4 to 14. Starting January 14, restrictions will continue to be lifted across the country, depending on each provinces’ progress. See below for further reopening measures:
- The holiday lockdown comes on the heels of a record-breaking day on December 12, when the country recorded 2,806 new cases, a surge the government attributes to the patriotic celebrations during November.
- A December 15 executive decree lays out new labor norms as of January 1, 2021, when private companies can begin to gradually reincorporate parts of their suspended labor force depending on their sector.
- Following a surge in cases since the end of October, workers unions wrote to Health Minister Ramón Martínez voicing their opposition to the possibility of new restrictions, though the Health Ministry has made no such declarations as of November 18.
- The government announced August 25 a new plan to continue the country’s reopening process. On September 7, all construction-related activities and industries reopened. Then, on September 28, restaurants, beaches, retail stores, and national tourism will resume. The plan’s last phase came October 12 when international tourism resumed and the national curfew was lifted.
- As of October 24, beaches and rivers are open to recreational activities, though groups are limited to 7 people.
- On August 17, aspects of the third and fourth reopening phases went into effect nationally. On said date, wholesale reopened with home delivery and limited contact pickup options, whereas retail will reopen with capacity restrictions. Beauty salons, car dealers, NGOs, and private construction operations also resumed. Prior to being instituted on a national scale, most of these measures went into effect on July 27 in three provinces with low contagion rates. Restrictions were further lifted nationally on August 24, per an August 18 announcement by the government, including those on non-contact sports.
- Minera Panamá—originally scheduled to reopen under phase six of the country’s reopening plan—has been given the green light to reopen, the government announced July 7. The copper mine has had to suspend over 4,000 worker contracts since the government ordered it to close in early April. Before closing down, around 200 workers tested positive for COVID-19 and five died.
- On May 10, Panama’s Health Ministry published a number of health and safety guidelines that both the public and private sectors had to meet before reopening began.
- Mitigation measures: As part of the government’s new reopening plan (see above), Panama implemented new mitigation measures as of September 14, when a curfew went into effect across most of the country. Panama’s movement restrictions based on gender were also lifted nationally on September 14. Previous measures included:
- With the end-of-year surge in COVID-19, Panama is shoring up its health sector by contracting foreign doctors from Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, the United States, and Venezuela.
- Starting July 24, five out of the country's 10 provinces were placed under a stricter quarantine. These provinces have varying curfews, and some have a total weekend curfew.These provinces were the last regions to hold on to gender restrictions, though those were finally lifted in mid-September. Panama was the first country in the region to institute restrictions based on gender.
- Between April and May, Panama went through at least five weekends of complete quarantine that were mandated by Cortizo.
- Panama’s national quarantine began on March 25 without a specified end date. Before that, on March 12, Cortizo announced a state of emergency, which granted the government 180 days starting on March 13 to mobilize up to $50 million to mitigate the effects of the pandemic.
- Travel and border restrictions: Panama’s airports opened to international travel on October 12, requiring passengers to sign an affidavit before boarding flights and then taking a $30 COVID-19 test upon arrival within 48 hours. A government announcement on August 21 suspended all incoming international flights until at least September 21. Hotels also opened October 12. However, starting August 17, Panamanian nationals and permanent residents were allowed back into the country. The government initially decreed the suspension on March 22 and extended it five times. Before the total suspension, the government monitored incoming flights from China, Italy, Iran and South Korea in early March. Capacity in ground transportation vehicles remains limited to 50 percent.
- School closings and restrictions: Public and private schools resumed remote classes on July 20 via a virtual platform launched on June 22. According to Education Ministry figures released August 10, three in ten Panamanian students don’t have access to remote classes. The government initially decreed a national temporary suspension of classes in both public and private institutions from March 11 to March 20, after which the Education Ministry extended the suspension multiple times. While students continue learning remotely, school staff and administration were allowed to enter buildings starting October 12.
- Other updates:
- Via a July 31 statement, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights ordered Panama to protect the health and life of the hundreds of migrants stuck in the country due to the pandemic, particularly those in the Darién region, by providing adequate COVID-19 tests and treatment. Per a mid-May La Estrella de Panamá report, 2,532 migrants of different nationalities were stuck in Panama due to border closures across the region, impeding them from continuing their journey north.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: ECLAC’s December 16 projections for the country point to an 11 percent GDP contraction in 2020. The IMF’s economic outlook for the country, updated in October, projects a 9 percent GDP contraction in 2020. The fund’s Western Hemisphere director, Alejandro Werner, notes that the country has one of the best debt standings in the region and is set to recuperate in 2021 with 4 percent growth.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: On May 27, the government extended until July 17 its grace period to pay the income tax that was due on March 31. The extension first went into effect on March 20. The government announced on May 26 that it had restructured its budget by $2 billion to free up funds for the government’s response to the pandemic. In the international front, Panama has relied on the following economic policies:
- On January 19, the IMF announced it will provide a $2.7 billion line of credit to Panama. The two-year arrangement is part of the IMF’s Precautionary and Liquidity Line and is meant to help countries recover from “extreme external shocks.”
- On the international front, Cortizo announced on April 13 that the Panamanian government had secured $1.3 billion in credit lines from multilateral organizations. Panama received $500 million from the IMF and an equal amount from the World Bank to invest in employment, health, and security, and the final $300 million from the Inter-American Development Bank for medium and small companies and the agricultural sector.
- On March 26, the Panamanian government sold $2.5 billion in sovereign bonds in the cross-border market in order to divert funds from the country’s budget to combat the pandemic. Panama was the first country in the region to issue sovereign bonds amid the pandemic.
- Social programs: On June 30, Cortizo signed a measure instituting a moratorium on a number of payments—including mortgages, a variety of loans, and credit cards—until December 31, 2020. The president had previously reached an agreement with the Panama Banking Association on May 4 to put in place such a moratorium, when Cortizo also signed a measure to suspend payments on public services—including electricity, internet, and phone bills—for the next four months. The utilities moratorium expired on July 1, though clients that are still unable to pay for services can continue appealing for relief.
- Before that, Cortizo launched Panama Solidario on March 27, an initiative to collect and distribute funds and resources to Panama’s poorest communities. After protesters across Panama complained they had not received any aid from the program as of mid-April, the president announced April 29 that the digital platform for Panama Solidario would be available starting April 30, through which funds began to be disbursed in May.
- A March 20 executive order mandates that companies suspend worker contracts if a business has to temporarily close, meaning that employees will not be paid but won’t necessarily be fired. Figures from Panama’s Ministry of Labor and Workforce Development show that, as of April 15, nearly 50,000 Panamanians saw their employment contracts suspended in one month.
- Other updates:
- Due to reduced personnel, the Panama Canal has seen a traffic clog that has delayed the passage of cargo ships some 10–15 days according to October reports.
- In May, crossings through the Panama Canal—which is used by 6 percent of global trade—dropped by 21 percent due to decreases in international trade, according to figures from the Panama Canal Authority (APC). The ACP announced on March 25 that ships attempting to cross through the Canal had to meet a number of safety requirements, including that all aboard each ship be healthy.
- Moody’s projected in mid-April that Panama’s public debt will expand to 53 percent of the country’s GDP with the deficit growing 2.2 percent.
Spread
- January 19: 123,359 confirmed cases, 2,535 deaths
- January 12: 117,590 confirmed cases, 2,437 deaths
- December 15: 95,353 confirmed cases, 1,991 deaths
- November 17: 72,857 confirmed cases, 1,613 deaths
- October 20: 56,073 confirmed cases, 1,231 deaths
- September 22: 34,828 confirmed cases, 705 deaths
- August 25: 14,228 confirmed cases, 231 deaths
- August 4: 5,852 confirmed cases, 59 deaths
- July 7: 2,502 confirmed cases, 20 deaths
- June 9: 1,187 confirmed cases, 11 deaths
- May 12: 737 confirmed cases, 10 deaths
- April 14: 161 confirmed cases, 8 deaths
- March 20: First death
- March 17: 11 confirmed cases
- March 10: 1 confirmed case
- March 7: First confirmed case
- Paraguay’s Health Ministry confirmed the country's first case on March 7. The 32-year-old man, who was quarantined in his home, had traveled to Ecuador for business.
- The country’s first death was confirmed on March 20 and involved a 69-year-old doctor.
- Vice President Hugo Velásquez tested positive for COVID-19, the government informed on January 16.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: The government announced on December 13 that COVID-19 immunizations will start in the second quarter of 2021, based on negotiations with the WHO’s COVAX Facility. In December 2020, Health Minister Julio Mazzoleni announced that Paraguay was in talks with five foreign pharmaceutical firms to purchase up to 4 million vaccine doses (for the country of roughly 7 million) in early 2021. These doses will be in addition to those already secured with the COVAX group that are expected in May or June for a price of about $40 million. On January 15, the Health Ministry announced a budget of $90 million to acquire vaccines outside the WHO plan.
- Reopening plan: Starting December 7, the government implemented tightened restrictions for two weeks after new cases rose to over 1,000 per day.
- Mitigation measures:
- In the southern department of Itapúa, authorities imposed a mandatory lockdown on January 15 for 10 days given the rise in positive cases registered in the community. All public social, religious, and sport activity is banned through January 25.
- Starting January 11 through the end of the month, the government announced new measures to stop the spread of COVID-19, including a midnight to 5 am curfew; only delivery services and pharmacies may remain open for 24 hrs a day; alcohol sales outside restaurants are banned from 10 pm to 5 am; public social gatherings are capped at 100 people and private social gatherings at 12 people.
- In August 2020, the Health Ministry announced that an additional 1,420 health professionals were trained in the National Health Institute to augment the number of those able to serve in intensive care units, as COVID-19 case numbers continue to increase. The Health Ministry’s National Blood Program on July 8 called for Paraguayans who have recovered from the virus to participate in trials to donate blood plasma to help allow active cases to combat the disease.
- In April 2020, the government released a new online tool, MapaInversiones, by which the public can access government information on how it’s using resources amid the health emergency, part of a transparency campaign supported by Inter-American Development Bank. On March 16, the presidency declared a health emergency in the entire country under Decree 3456.
- Travel and border restrictions: On October 15, the government reopened the three main land border crossings with Brazil. Arrivees must provide negative results from a PCR test taken 72 hours before traveling and must quarantine for two weeks upon arrival. Foreign Minister Federico González announced on October 9 that, beginning October 21, the Asunción airport will reopen for international flights, and that visitors staying less than one week in the country can forgo the quarantine requirement if they present a negative test. On September 7, the government approved a controlled air traffic protocol announced at the end of August for “bubble” flights to operate between Paraguay and Uruguay. Residents of both countries must present a negative PCR test taken a maximum of 72 hours prior to flying.
- School closings and restrictions: On January 11, the government announced that university classes will reopen with a cap of 20 students attending in person, and up to 50 students may sit university entry exams in person at a time. School closures were first announced on March 10.
- Other updates:
- Paraguay’s Superior Court for Electoral Justice announced on July 27 that the country’s municipal elections are postponed until October 10, 2021 as a result of the pandemic. Prior to that, on June 6, President Abdo Benítez signed a law mandating that the Court update the electoral calendar to reschedule municipal elections, which would have taken place in November 2020, to 2021. Abdo Benítez’s order also mandated that party candidates be chosen between 90 and 120 days prior to the new voting date and incumbents shall hold office until new leaders take office.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: Paraguay’s GDP is projected to contract just 2.3 percent in 2020, per an October 6 ECLAC report. In late July, Paraguay’s Central Bank projected the country’s economy will shrink by 3.5 percent in 2020.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- On June 30, the government’s Agricultural Enabling Credit branch distributed over $23.2 million in loans to over 15,700 agricultultural producers to mitigate the pandemic’s impact.
- On May 6, the government announced the creation of a special commission to supervise government purchases toward fighting COVID-19, including controlling the use of resources under the March 26 health emergency law that made $1.6 billion available for pandemic relief. Of this sum, the government said it would put $514 million toward public health services and $408 million toward job protection.
- The Finance Ministry announced on April 23 it would issue $1 billion in sovereign bonds to fight the pandemic, after on April 15, the government announced measures including distributing $100 million to 1.2 million informal workers, $100 million to help finance the private healthcare subsidies, $20 million to care for the elderly, and $10 million for economic relief for 160,000 low-income families. On March 13, Abdo Benítez announced the allocation of roughly $81 million for health measures and a reduction in interest rates reduced to 3.75 percent from 4 percent. The government announced it would distribute around $100 million to some 10,000 small and medium companies affected. On March 31, the Health Ministry announced it would make available $100 milion for medical equipment and ICU beds, as part of an emergency package of $500 million.
- Social programs:
- Due to Alto Paraná’s increase in cases becoming the country’s hotspot in early August, the government announced it would begin issuing money transfers worth roughly $72 to over 28,000 low-income inhabitants across the department’s 22 districts to provide economic relief. The Finance Ministry revealed on June 17 that the government has distributed $1.2 million to different programs under the March 16 health emergency to fight the pandemic, with $243 million of that sum going into health, education, and security services in April and May.
- On July 14, the Social Welfare Institute head announced that starting July 17 those who lost their jobs during the pandemic may collect a third wave of subsidy payments as part of the $100 million social welfare emergency program announced on March 26. In an expansion to the original decree, this measure now includes workers who earn more than double the minimum salary. On May 13, the Development Ministry announced it would distribute an additional $4.8 million in the form of direct debit deposits to roughly 165,229 Paraguayans via the Tekoporã social welfare program, after on March 25, the government announced the Ñangareko program, involving money transfers for food and hygiene products to roughly 33,000 families whose income has been affected by quarantine.
- Other updates:
- On June 22, the Central Bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75 percent, given low inflation allowing for looser monetary policy to boost the economy.
- On April 17, Abdo Benítez announced that the purchase of health materials bought by any company or organization shall be audited by the state. Previously, on March 30, the president announced a reduction of state salaries to save roughly $52 million. The measure decrees that no official salary should exceed $5,635 monthly—the presidential salary.
Spread
- January 19: 1,073,214 confirmed cases, 39,044 deaths
- January 12: 1,040,231 confirmed cases, 38,399 deaths
- December 15: 987,675 confirmed cases, 36,817 deaths
- November 17: 939,931 confirmed cases, 35,317 deaths
- October 20: 874,118 confirmed cases, 33,875 deaths
- September 22: 776,546 confirmed cases, 31,586 deaths
- August 25: 607,382 confirmed cases, 28,001 deaths
- August 4: 439,890 confirmed cases, 20,007 deaths
- July 7: 309,278 confirmed cases, 10,952 deaths
- June 9: 203,736 confirmed cases, 5,738 deaths
- May 12: 76,306 confirmed cases, 2,169 deaths
- April 14: 10,303 confirmed cases, 230 deaths
- March 19: First three deaths
- March 17: 117 confirmed cases
- March 10: 11 confirmed cases
- March 6: First case
- Peru’s first case involved a 25-year-old man who had recently returned from a trip that took him to Spain, France, and the Czech Republic.
- The country’s health ministry announced the first death from the virus on March 19: a 78-year-old man with an underlying heart condition.
- In the second week of April, Peru ramped up its testing 15-fold. Through the end of May, Peru conducted more than 1 million COVID-19 tests.
- One of Peru’s top infectious disease experts warned on May 17 that the country’s health system is on the verge of collapse. Ciro Maguiña, associate dean of Peru’s Medical College, was a member of the president’s COVID-19 health experts task force before resigning on May 11 over what he said were “harmful” statements by then-Health Minister Victor Zamora about the country’s medical professionals. Five other members of the task force resigned in the week after Maguiña.
- By September, Peru had the highest rate of deaths for every 100,000 people in the world, at 98.06, according to Johns Hopkins University. An August Ipsos poll also found that two in every three Peruvians know someone who’s passed away from the virus, up from one in 20 back in April. Three in four Peruvians reported having experienced anxiety—mostly over lost income—during the national quarantine, which first went into effect March 15, according to a national survey taken during the last full week of May. Peru’s new case rate growth—along with hospitalizations and excessive deaths—finally started to slow in October and November.
- For every confirmed COVID-19 fatality, there are probably two more that can be attributed to the disease, a Health Ministry epidemiologist confirmed in an interview on June 7, meaning that as of the first week of June, Peru’s coronavirus death total was probably around 14,000 people.
- As Lima opened up, Peru’s second-largest city, Arequipa, was the country’s latest hotspot as of mid-June, overwhelming the local health system. On July 22, local medical experts asked the Vizcarra administration to take over Arequipa’s pandemic response, citing mismanagement and deceptive practices by city officials. Before that, the Amazonian city of Iquitos emerged as a hotspot in May, and a visit from Zamora on May 11 didn’t help assuage medical professionals’ concerns. Local health officials estimated at that time that up to 90 percent of COVID-19 fatalities in the city—the largest one in the world not accessible by car—were due to lack of medical equipment and low staffing numbers as so many doctors and nurses have fallen ill. During his trip, Zamora promised the construction of two new plants, but cautioned those will take several weeks to build. A local official in the indigenous community of Pucacuro confirmed that 600 of 800 residents had COVID-19 as of May 25, just over a month after the district mayor and aides arrived in the isolated community to distribute food, albeit without masks or certificates of good health.
- Interim President Francisco Sagasti, who came to power on November 16 after a tumultuous week that saw President Martín Vizcarra removed from office seven days earlier, in one indication of his priorities, visited a state hospital mere hours after receiving the votes necessary to take office. There were also reports he’d asked Vizcarra’s Economy Minister Maria Antonieta Alva to return to the cabinet.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: After an initial agreement with Pfizer fell through, apparently over concerns about a liability waiver required by the pharmaceutical, Sagasti announced on January 7 that the country would purchase 38 million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine, the first doses of which would arrive that month. At a reported $72.50 per dose, the vaccine is one of the most costly on the market, and as of mid-January Peru is the only Latin American nation to purchase from the Chinese state-owned firm. On December 14, Sagasti proposed that the South American bloc PROSUR set up a pool in order to grant members equal access to vaccines.
- Reopening plan: Then-President Vizcarra announced a four-phase reopening plan on April 29. In industry and mining sectors, for example, non-metallic mineral and paper production began in May, large-scale underground mining and medium-scale open-pit mining in June, medium-scale underground mining in July, and tobacco production in August. However, many sectors are operating at reduced capacity; restaurants, for example, can’t go over 40 percent occupancy. Sagasti is keeping Vizcarra’s original curfew, mobility restrictions, and social distancing measures in effect through at least the end of January.
- On July 15, Vizcarra replaced Zamora with Pilar Mazetti as health minister. Mazetti was one of 14 out of 18 ministers Vizcarra kept in his cabinet after the Peruvian Congress gave a vote of “no confidence” to Vizcarra’s cabinet on August 4, forcing the president to confirm a new one, which he did on August 6.
- Machu Picchu reopened to tourists on July 1, albeit at only about 15 percent of its usual volume. Just 675 people will be allowed per day, compared to a 4,110 daily average in 2019. Tourists must follow established paths and directions around the historic site’s ruins, and visits are capped at two hours.
- Around 6 million Peruvians—roughly one third of workers—returned to work on May 25 as the country entered the second phase of its reopening plan. In late April, just one in four Peruvians was working during the national shutdown.
- Commercial and shopping centers opened at 50 percent capacity in 16 of Peru’s 24 districts on June 18. Gamarra, a sprawling commercial district in Lima with some 30,000 daily visitors pre-pandemic, became the first major shopping center to reopen on June 15. Previously, the government closed two of Lima’s largest produce markets on May 16 after 80 percent of merchants tested positive for COVID-19, and another two markets on May 20 where 40 percent of vendors tested positive.
- Mitigation measures: Vizcarra declared a national emergency on March 15 and instituted a nationwide curfew on March 18. He’s since extended both through June 30. Reopening began on July 1, but less than two weeks later, the Lima government and nine surrounding municipalities agreed to ask the government to go back on lockdown after cases failed to abate. Defense Minister Walter Martos indicated in late May that the nationwide curfew, which goes from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m., could remain in effect for the rest of the year. On June 4, the government extended the health emergency through September 7. In remarks on May 30, Vizcarra said he expects Peru to be battling COVID-19 for the next six to eight months.
- Amid concerns over price gouging, on the evening of June 24, Vizcarra gave private health clinics 48 hours to reach an agreement on set prices they will bill the government to attend to uninsured COVID-19 patients, or else he would invoke Article 70 of the Constitution, which permits the government to expropriate private property in the case of “national security or public necessity.” The clinics and the executive arrived at a “tense” agreement over prices hours later.
- Peruvians by and large support Vizcarra’s handling of the crisis, and even though his approval has slipped in recent months, it’s still above where he was pre-pandemic. The president’s approval rating jumped 35 points in March during the first week of his pandemic response to 87 percent, according to Ipsos, but by late August fell to 60 percent. Some 96 percent approve of the curfew and 95 percent support the national quarantine. Economy Minister Alva, who’s become a popular figure early on in the crisis, notched 75 percent approval in April but had fallen to 47 percent four months later and for the first time has a higher disapproval rating. Approval for Congress, which forced Vizcarra to reconfirm his cabinet at the beginning of August, rose 4 points that month to 36 percent.
- On April 20, an association of Peruvian indigenous peoples filed a formal complaint with the government for a lack of a plan to address the pandemic within the country’s 1,800 communities. Although the committee chair said technical tests ahead of time were successful, Culture Minister Sonia Guillén blamed a faulty internet connection for her not being able to hear and respond to lawmakers’ questions in congressional hearing on May 12 about her ministry’s COVID-19 response plan for Peru’s indigenous communities. This was the fourth committee meeting on the topic and the first Guillén attended.
- Peru instituted a gender-based quarantine system on April 2 in which women were allowed to circulate three days a week and men the other three. The system was scrapped nine days later, however, for lack of efficiency and because, since the domestic responsibilities were not evenly shared, markets were overly packed on days women circulated and became hot spots for contagion.
- Travel and border restrictions: The March 15 national emergency put strict controls on people’s movement within the country. The decree closed all of Peru’s borders as of 11:59 p.m. March 16, as well as prohibited domestic travel between Peru’s 196 provinces.
- Domestic flights resumed July 15. International flights to the five countries that border Peru are expected to resume in the latter half of October, per the defense minister. A flight from Santiago—the first international flight in Peru in seven months—landed in Arequipa on October 19.
- Vizcarra said on April 16 that he would allow limited domestic travel so that Peruvians who’ve been stranded in regions where they don’t reside can return home.
- School closings and restrictions: Peru’s public schools, originally scheduled to start the 2020 school year on March 16, never got to open their doors as all classes went online. While most classes will be online for the rest of 2020, Peru’s Education Ministry announced on June 17 that in-person classes will resume in rural communities with low to no incidences of COVID-19 on July 1. The education minister said on September 22 that in-person classes will resume in 2021.
- Other updates:
- Peru received 85 doctors and medical professionals from Cuba to join local health workers on the pandemic frontlines on June 3. Cuban officials said the medical professionals were sent at the request of Peru.
- A judge released political heavyweight Keiko Fujimori from jail on May 1, citing the threat of catching COVID-19 behind bars among the reasons. The former presidential candidate and Popular Force party head was three months into a 15-month pre-trial detention sentence while she waits to be tried on charges of corruption and money laundering.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP projections: The World Bank released updated projections on June 8 that show Peru’s economy contracting by 12.0 percent in 2020, the largest contraction by a major Latin American economy (not including Venezuela). Two months earlier, the bank projected the Peruvian economy would contract by 4.7 percent in 2020, down from a projection of 3.2 percent growth in October 2019. Goldman Sachs said in late February that Peru, along with Chile, counts as Latin America’s most exposed economy to the novel coronavirus. Fitch Ratings estimates that increased public spending will raise Peru’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 44 percent in 2022, up from 27 percent in 2019.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- Two bills that would allow Peruvians to make early withdrawals from their retirement funds are held up in court and will likely end up before the country’s Constitutional Court. On April 29, Peru’s Congress passed a law that allows workers who’ve made contributions to private retirement funds to withdraw up to $12,900 from those funds penalty-free. Vizcarra apparently had reservations about letting up to 25 percent of all private retirement funds, worth about $11 billion, to be withdrawn, but the president has no veto power in Peru. In March, the president’s cabinet approved by decree penalty-free withdrawals of about $300 in April and May, worth 3.7 percent of all the monies in private funds, or about $1.5 billion, per Alva.
- The Central Bank issued a first set of bonds, worth $1.2 billion and aimed at boosting credit for Peruvian businesses, on April 23. It’s part of a plan by the bank, led by Julio Velarde, to issue a total of $8.9 billion in bonds that will reach an estimated 350,000 businesses. The government increased the maximum lending amounts by up to 50 percent, based on the business’s size, in a series of updates to the plan announced by Alva on May 28. Peru also plans to issue bonds worth up to $4.4 billion to fund the state’s response to the health crisis.
- Social programs:
- The government launched the program Reactiva Perú on April 6, which aims to guarantee up to 98 percent of business loans totaling at $9,000 or less for companies that need funding to pay their employees and/or their suppliers.
- The Vizcarra administration announced a plan on April 13 to subsidize the salaries of non-essential workers whose jobs are completely suspended by the pandemic, as well as payments to the national healthcare system, for three months. During those 90 days, workers who’d normally earn up to $700 monthly are eligible to receive about $225 per month paid to them directly from the government. On June 24, the administration amplified the conditions under which a company can furlough its workers.
- Three in four Peruvians households that have been ineligible for previous payouts will receive a government bond worth $225, Vizcarra announced on April 24. In contrast to the measure bankrolling paychecks for those whose jobs are suspended, this measure targets self-employed and informal workers. Two in three workers in Peru held informal jobs in 2018. The funds are intended to cover the eight weeks of quarantine.
- Some 3 million low-income households were eligible to receive payments of about $100, meant to cover two weeks’ worth of basic goods, available as of March 19. On April 16, Vizcarra announced that 1 million families in rural areas will be eligible for a separate payment of $200; the government approved a second payment in the same amount to rural families on September 23. It’s believed that many contracted the virus while waiting in long lines at banks to receive these payments, as 60 percent of Peruvians are unbanked, as well as in markets. BBVA bank reported that online banking transactions were up 58 percent in the first half of 2020, compared to the year before, including a 72 percent rise in transactions via mobile. That said, online banking still is not widespread, with just 16 percent of banked Peruvians saying they used online services in 2019.
- Other updates:
- After ending the first quarter roughly 6 points down from the beginning of 2020, investment levels in Peruvian mutual funds recovered in the second quarter, ending 4.2 percent above where they started at the beginning of the year, reported Peru’s largest financial holding company on July 8.
- Close to one-third of Peruvians—and three-fifths of the poorest citizens—lost their jobs in the first five weeks of the national emergency, according to a national survey released April 27. The survey found that just one quarter of Peruvians were working at the time: 10 percent were able to work from home, 9 percent are essential workers, and 6 were working clandestinely. Another 20 percent were not working but still had their job, and 25 percent were not working before the pandemic hit.
- Vizcarra signed a measure on May 28 that will reduce the salaries of all executive branch officials making over $4,300 monthly by up to 15 percent for the months of June, July, and August. The saved monies will provide benefits to the families of healthcare workers who died from COVID-19.
Spread
- January 19: 151,701 confirmed cases, 1,717 deaths
- January 12: 144,781 confirmed cases, 1,659 deaths
- December 15: 111,232 confirmed cases, 1,312 deaths
- November 17: 81,050 confirmed cases, 971 deaths
- October 20: 58,830 confirmed cases, 774 deaths
- September 22: 42,660 confirmed cases, 617 deaths
- August 25: 30,720 confirmed cases, 395 deaths
- August 4: 19,324 confirmed cases, 237 deaths
- July 7: 8,714 confirmed cases, 157 deaths
- June 9: 5,185 confirmed cases, 142 deaths
- May 12: 2,299 confirmed cases, 114 deaths
- April 14: 923 positives, 45 deaths
- March 17: 5 positives, first death
- March 13: 3 confirmed cases
- Governor Wanda Vázquez confirmed the U.S. territory’s first three cases on March 13.
- On April 28, the Health Department said it was attributing a March 17 death to COVID-19, making a 54-year-old Puerto Rican man the island’s first death from the virus. The agency previously reported that the island’s first pandemic-related death was on March 21, involving a 68-year-old Italian tourist.
- Starting on April 9, the Health Department began including suspected coronavirus deaths in its official death count, in line with guidelines set forth by the CDC.
- Note: Starting June 11, Puerto Rico’s Health Department began differentiating between results from molecular and serological tests, referring to the former as cases and deaths that have been confirmed and the latter as probable cases and deaths. Therefore, the numbers listed after June 23 reflect the total of both tests. Before this change in methodology, the island’s Health Secretary Lorenzo González acknowledged on April 17 that the department had been reporting inaccurate data, given that the department had been counting cases multiple times due to testing individuals more than once. Then, on April 24, González announced that the agency had deciphered its data. As a result, the numbers prior to April 14 reflect the total number of positive tests as reported by the agency, not the number of confirmed cases.
- Puerto Ricans elected Pedro Pierluisi as governor on November 3, 2020. He took office on January 2, 2021.
Government response
- Vaccine rollout: Following the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s emergency approval of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, Puerto Rico will receive 205,000 vaccine doses beginning in December. Delays in vaccine deliveries disrupted the island’s original distribution plan, slowing vaccination efforts. As of January 5, 2021 the health secretary anticipates a weekly delivery of 40,000 vaccine doses.The vaccines will first go to firstr esponders and essential workers with the general public expected to be vaccinated in the summer. The vaccine will be provided free of charge to all who would like to receive it.
- Reopening plan: Puerto Rico began its reopening process on May 4 and went through four phases between May and July. Since then, however, the governor has instituted a number of changes, going back and forth between closing and reopening. Here is the latest:
- After restrictions were temporarily tightened from December 3 to January 7, Puerto Rico’s new governor, Pedro Pierluisi announced that beginning January 8 beaches are reopened to the public and the weekly Sunday lockdown is lifted. He also announced shorter curfew hours: 11 p.m. to 5 a.m.
- In anticipation of the Christmas holiday, Vázquez on December 3 reintroduced a 24-hour lockdown on Sundays and extended the 9 pm to 5 am curfew until January 7. Additionally, beaches are closed except to those exercising. Alcohol sales are banned on weekends.
- Vázquez announced that beginning on November 16 a mandated 30 percent capacity limit will be enforced in restaurants, churches, shopping malls and gyms. These measures are to be enforced by unarmed members of the national guard. Public transportation began operating again on October 16.
- At a September 10 press conference, Vázquez announced that the island would begin reopening once again. From September 12 through October 2, most commercial spaces reopened at 25 to 50 percent capacity, and beaches are open without restrictions.
- Previously, Vázquez announced on July 31 that the island’s reopening process would be halted starting in August. Since then, most commercial businesses that were previously allowed to open and operate with minimal restrictions were ordered to revert to 25 percent capacity or close through September 11.
- The use of face masks at all times remains mandatory, as has been the case since April.
- Mitigation measures: From December 3 until January 7, Puerto Rico tightened restrictions in an attempt to limit coronavirus cases during the height of the island’s Christmas tourist season. Looser restrictions were re-introduced on January 8, marking the end of the busy holiday season.
- Despite spiked in cases, Vázquez announced on September 10 that most restrictions would be lifted on September 12, and further relaxed restrictions in October continuing through December 3. During this period, the island-wide curfew will continue, making it the longest of its kind in any U.S. jurisdiction, though the previous 24-hour lockdown on Sundays is lifted. Vázquez also dissolved the medical and economic task forces created in March to advise her during the pandemic. Before these measures, the governor took the following steps:
- Vázquez announced on August 19 a series of stricter measures to run between August 22 and September 11. She instituted a 24-hour lockdown for every Sunday, except for essential services, and ordered most commercial businesses to operate at 25 percent or risk being closed for 30 days.
- Vázquez issued a one-week extension on August 14 for the restrictions in place since mid-July, after a previous extension on July 31. The measures, which were in place through August 21, included the island-wide curfew mentioned above and a ban on alcohol sales every night starting at 7 p.m. and every Sunday. Vázquez also ordered all bars, casinos, clubs, theaters, and gyms to remain closed.
- Vázquez instituted an island-wide lockdown and curfew on March 15, which she has now extended in part over a dozen times between March and August.
- Previously, in a March 13 press conference, Vázquez announced the suspension of cruises entering ports. The governor had already declared an island-wide state of emergency on March 12.
- Despite spiked in cases, Vázquez announced on September 10 that most restrictions would be lifted on September 12, and further relaxed restrictions in October continuing through December 3. During this period, the island-wide curfew will continue, making it the longest of its kind in any U.S. jurisdiction, though the previous 24-hour lockdown on Sundays is lifted. Vázquez also dissolved the medical and economic task forces created in March to advise her during the pandemic. Before these measures, the governor took the following steps:
- Travel and border restrictions: Vázquez announced on July 16 that the island would not open to international tourism on July 15 as was previously planned. However, the U.S. territory hasn’t and can’t close its borders without approval from the federal government.
- Before that, the governor announced on June 30 that starting July 15 passengers arriving in Puerto Rico would have to take a test 72 hours prior to their flight and then present their negative results to officials at the airport. Those who do not comply may be administered a rapid test at the airport, and if they test positive, they may be ordered to undergo a two-week quarantine and a test to get out of isolation.
- Vázquez asked the Federal Aviation Agency on April 8 to stop Puerto Rico-bound flights from six U.S. cities considered to be coronavirus hotspots, and, while the agency did not grant the request, it did limit Puerto Rico-bound commercial flights to the San Juan international airport starting late March in response to a request from Vázquez.
- School closings and restrictions: The virtual fall semester began on August 17 even as the platform for it experienced extensive technical issues. A plan to return to in-person learning, originally scheduled for September 17, is on hold. Universities, on the other hand, were given the green light to reopen starting July 1. Public schools and universities transitioned to online learning in mid-March, after which the Education Department announced on April 23 that students in kindergarten through twelfth grade would automatically pass the 2019–2020 school year.
- Other updates:
- Tropical Storm Isaias struck the island between July 29 and 30, leaving hundreds of thousands without power and water. Before the storm’s arrival, Vázquez declared a state of emergency, urged residents to evacuate areas that were susceptible to flooding, and announced that those who needed to transit during curfew hours would not be fined. Before that, on June 30, Vázquez declared a state of emergency over a worsening drought. With over 80 percent of the island experiencing a moderate to severe drought by the end of June, water rationings and other water usage restrictions were in place in some sectors for 25 days.
- The federal oversight board that manages Puerto Rico’s finances (FOMBPR) sued Vázquez’s government on June 8, demanding that her administration turn over documents relating to an attempted $38 million contract to buy overpriced rapid test kits from a construction firm with no experience in producing medical products but with ties to Vázquez’s political party. The board stated that it had requested documents related to this purchase and others during the pandemic two months before. The Puerto Rican legislature previously opened an investigation into the purchase in mid-April, after which Vázquez signed an executive order on April 22 granting civil immunity to private and public medical facilities and medical personnel working on the island during the pandemic. The mandate shields against claims of negligence or medical malpractice.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: The FOMBPR warned on May 26 that the island is likely to experience a deficit in the coming years as its surplus may plunge by up to 65 percent between 2020 and 2032, leaving the government unable to meet its debt obligations as the island attempts to restructure a debt exceeding $70 billion.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: Vázquez signed into law on June 14 a second package of economic measures to mitigate pandemic-related economic fallout. The new law automatically extends commercial licenses and permits by six months and eliminates for three months the 4 percent tax on professional services. The governor announced the island’s first economic package on March 23, worth $787 million. That one, which at the time of its announcement was the largest one presented by U.S. states and territories, included a 90-day moratorium on a number of payments and an incentive of $1,500 to businesses with 50 employees or fewer that had to close and don’t qualify for federal aid. The FOMBPR approved a revised fiscal plan for the island on May 27 that temporarily suspends all cuts to the government’s budget.
- Social programs: The U.S. territory received $2.2 billion on April 22 as part of the CARES Act, the $2 trillion federal economic relief package.
- Puerto Ricans are eligible to receive the federal economic incentive of $1,200 available to most U.S. citizens under the CARES Act. In the case of Puerto Rico, the local Treasury Department could not disburse funds from the federal stimulus until the U.S. Treasury approved the island’s plan for distribution on May 1.
- Vázquez unveiled her administration’s plan for the federal funds during a press conference on May 14, outlining dozens of programs focused around three pillars: strengthening the government’s response to the pandemic, reviving and protecting the island’s economy, and maintaining “continuity in government operations.” On April 13, Vázquez signed a resolution to place a moratorium on personal loans, car loans, mortgages, and credit cards until the end of June. The new measure, which is voluntary and up to each individual to use, also bars interest fees and other penalties in relation to these payments.
- Other updates:
- U.S. officials announced on September 18 a $13 billion aid package for Puerto Rico, aimed at repairing damage from Hurricane Maria three years after the hurricane hit the island.
Spread
- January 19: 33,446 confirmed cases, 330 deaths
- January 12: 27,846 confirmed cases, 269 deaths
- December 15: 10,418 confirmed cases, 98 deaths
- November 17: 4,208 confirmed cases, 68 deaths
- October 20: 2,623 confirmed cases, 52 deaths
- September 22: 1,934 confirmed cases, 46 deaths
- August 25: 1,536 confirmed cases, 43 deaths
- August 4: 1,300 confirmed cases, 37 deaths
- July 7: 965 confirmed cases, 29 deaths
- June 9: 846 confirmed cases, 23 deaths
- May 12: 717 confirmed cases, 19 deaths
- April 14: 492 confirmed cases, 8 deaths
- March 28: First death
- March 17: 29 confirmed cases
- March 13: First 4 confirmed cases
- Uruguay’s Ministry of Health confirmed the country’s first four cases on March 13. The first cases were all people who had traveled to Milan and entered Uruguay between March 3 and 6.
- The government confirmed its first virus-related death on March 28, involving Rodolfo González Rissotto, a 71-year-old man who previously served on the country’s Electoral Court.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: On December 1, President Luis Lacalle Pou announced the government would purchase an initial 700,000 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to begin immunizing the population by April 2021. On October 13, the government announced it would invest $2.5 million in the WHO’s COVAX program in order to acquire 1.5 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines for its population of 3.5 million.
- Reopening plan: On June 26, the government approved a protocol to reopen certain businesses starting June 29, such as hotels—where guests will have their temperature taken upon arrival, restaurants, bars, and cafés. This reopening will only occur under strict health guidelines, such as social distancing, mandatory use of face masks, and hand sanitizer. On June 4, the government announced a plan to reopen most shopping malls starting June 9, with businesses and shoppers required to wear face masks and follow social distancing and hygiene protocols.
- Mitigation measures:
- Given a rise in cases, the government announced heightened measures beginning December 1, including closing government offices and switching to remote work. Lacalle Pou encouraged private offices to go remote as well but did not require it. The restrictions are set to last through December 18, with the possibility of extension. On November 13, the Labor Ministry launched a campaign to reinforce health protocols among the country’s businesses, and deployed one hundred inspectors to ensure they comply with existing guidelines to avoid outbreaks in COVID-19 cases. The inspections focus on businesses including supermarkets, restaurants, offices, and shopping centers. Lacalle Pou announced in a July 21 press conference that while he would not roll back some opening measures that already are in effect, he was implementing stricter health guidelines to slow contagion, including banning private house parties and putting more buses in circulation in the capital to lessen crowding. Uruguay has been credited with acting swiftly to mitigate the outbreak, with the president announcing a health emergency on March 13 when the first cases were confirmed. While never establishing mandatory quarantine, the country enforced a high testing rate, which contributed to the slow rise in cases; by May 5, the government reached its objective of carrying out over 1,000 daily tests. On October 19, the country’s testing rate was 81.73 per 1,000 people, the third highest in Latin America. On May 10, the Montevideo government also made the use of face masks on public transport mandatory. On March 17, the government announced the closing of stores and shopping malls.
- Travel and border restrictions: On January 6, the government announced that air, land, and sea borders will remain shut through the month’s end for all non-commercial traffic for 20 days, after the government closed its borders on December 21 to limit movement during the holidays, except for commercial cargo transportation. On November 4 the government announced stricter protocols for incoming international travelers, including a mandatory seven-day isolation period monitored by public health workers. As of July 16, nationals and foreigners entering the country must submit to a temperature test upon arrival, as well as present a negative result from a PCR test taken within 72 hours of traveling. On September 22, the government announced it will require arriving travelers to take another test if they’re staying in the country for more than four days. On August 18, the Tourism Ministry announced that Uruguay will reopen borders to incoming travelers from the European Union, as a “gesture of reciprocity” after Europe announced in June that out of all Latin American nationalities, only Uruguayans are allowed to enter via air travel. European travelers must still adhere to travel guidelines previously announced in July. They then must self-isolate for one week at home, wear a face mask when around others, and take a second test one week after entering the country. Previously, travelers could take their pre-travel test up to 72 hours before arriving. On March 25, the government announced the total closing of land, sea, and air borders.
- On September 1, Uruguay and Brazil signed an agreement to continue mitigating contagion in border territories, this time with a focus on the cities of Artigas (Quaraí on Brazil side) and Bella Unión (Barra do Quaraí on Brazil side). The agreement involves PCR testing on both sides, mandatory use of face masks and social distancing, and capping the number of people allowed into commercial establishments. On May 25, Lacalle Pou announced measures agreed to with his Brazilian counterpart in the border city of Rivera. Uruguay’s Ministries of the Interior and Defense announced it would establish four check-points to reduce movement of vehicles and people across the border, and conduct 1,100 random tests. On May 13, the Minister of National Defense Javier García announced that the Armed Forces established 800 checkpoints and completed 2,300 patrols along the country’s border with Brazil in two months. The government first announced on May 5 it would increase health checks on the Brazilian border, after expressing concern over contagion levels in that country and recognizing that commercial activity in peripheral cities allows for daytime border crossings, despite the government having closed land borders with Brazil on March 22.
- School closings and restrictions: While government workers returned to remote work, in-person classes will continue through the academic year, though extracurricular activities are suspended. Beginning October 13, students resumed in-person classes again. Students who live with at-risk people in their homes have the option to attend in-person or via distance learning. On October 1, the government started to reopen food halls in 286 public and private schools, a measure that will guarantee meals for 210,000 children nationwide. Per The Conversation’s grading of four countries that have reopened schools amid the pandemic, Uruguay beat Israel, Japan, and Sweden, receiving As for slow and phased reopening, masks and distancing in schools, and masks and distancing in communities. On June 29, the government began phase three of school reopenings, announcing that over 200,000 more students returned to in-person classes across the country. This phase covered 230 schools, including 33 in the Brazilian border city of Rivera. On June 15, the government began phase two with the resumption of in-person classes for 420,000 students returning to classes in 156 technical schools, 200 high schools, and over 1,000 public schools, after a three-month suspension.
- Other updates:
- On October 13, the government announced plans to invest $2.5 million in the WHO’s COVAXX Facility in order to acquire 1.5 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available. (The population of Uruguay is about 3.5 million.)
- On May 15, the Health Ministry signed a first-time cooperation agreement with two state health service providers, the Medical Providers Federation of the Interior and the State Health Services Administration, to reinforce care for the elderly, regardless of what health insurance they may have. Over one month earlier on April 17, Lacalle Pou announced the formation of a commission of experts led by the Director of the Planning and Budget Office Isaac Alfie to advise the government on a gradual exit strategy to the health emergency.
- In a move to address domestic dangers early on, the government announced on March 28 measures to stop the rise of gender violence during social distancing, including an awareness campaign on social and mainstream media, a hotline for emergencies, and a protocol created alongside the Health Ministry for personnel to detect possible instances of domestic violence.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: An October 6 ECLAC report projected Uruguay’s GDP will contract 5.0 percent in 2020, the third-smallest amount in Latin America. A June World Bank report projected Uruguay’s GDP to contract 3.7 percent in 2020, one whole point higher than the World Bank semiannual April report projecting Uruguay’s GDP to contract 2.7 percent in 2020, down from a 0.2 percent expansion in 2019.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy: The government announced $7.7 million in subsidies on November 12 to help both public and private transportation businesses get back up to speed and comply with new health protocols, given that most are operating at passenger capacities of about 50–70 percent of pre-pandemic levels. On April 29, the government announced an investment stimulus plan that includes new tax exemptions for large-scale investments. On March 24, the government announced it would disburse funds to 55,000 workers over 65 years old in both the public and private sectors as a way to make sure they stay at home. As one of the first economic measures taken by the government, on March 19 the Central Bank announced it would provide credit lines to companies of around $50 million, while working with multilateral organizations to augment this sum to up to $125 million.
- Social programs:
- The Coronavirus Fund, set up in March 2020 which drew money from salaries of public workers who make over $1,800 monthly, invested over $625 million over the course of the health emergency, the Economy Ministry announced in January 2021. The government further announced that in 2020 social spending amounted to $385 million, $117 million more than in 2019.
- On December 3, the government extended unemployment benefits three more months through March 31, 2021, adding a monthly benefit of $118 for three months after someone returns to the workforce. The number of Uruguayans receiving unemployment benefits decreased from 95,000 in September to 85,000 people in October, the government reported on November 11. On August 27, the Labor and Social Security Ministry created an unemployment subsidy for 90 days to complement existing benefit claims for workers filed from June 1 to July 31, given the magnitude of unemployment claims in those two months. As an incentive for businesses to reintegrate employees, the Social Welfare Bank of Uruguay will contribute $114 monthly to employers from July 1 to September 30 for every employee reincorporated or hired. Also, the Central Bank and the National Internal Audit agency will flexibilize credit loan payments for those who cannot pay, and the Mortgage Bank of Uruguay will delay debt payment deadlines.
- On April 1, the Senate approved the COVID-19 Solidarity Fund, made up of loans from domestic and international financial institutions, to cover government disbursements during the health emergency. On March 26, the government also declared the creation of a Coronavirus Fund, drawn from the salaries of public workers who make over $1,800 monthly, and Lacalle Pou along with ministers and legislators will also give 20 percent from their own salaries. The contributions will be periodic for two months, and the measure is subject to extension. On March 19, the government announced the Social Development Ministry would receive $22 million to reinforce social programs, such as building refuge centers and extending salaries on the Social Uruguay Card, a government-funded resource for the most disadvantaged to access food and basic need products.
- Other updates: On April 16, the Central Bank announced monetary policy adjustments, including extensions to credit maturities, temporary reductions to bank reserves to stimulate credit lines, and temporary relaxation of stock market regulations.
Spread
- January 19: 121,117 confirmed cases, 1,116 deaths
- January 12: 117,299 confirmed cases, 1,078 deaths
- December 15: 108,480 confirmed cases, 965 deaths
- November 17: 98,050 confirmed cases, 858 deaths
- October 20: 87,644 confirmed cases, 747 deaths
- September 22: 68,453 confirmed cases, 564 deaths
- August 25: 41,158 confirmed cases, 343 deaths
- August 4: 21,438 confirmed cases, 187 deaths
- July 7: 7,693 confirmed cases, 71 deaths
- June 9: 2,632 confirmed cases, 23 deaths
- May 12: 423 confirmed cases, 10 deaths
- April 14: 193 confirmed cases, 9 deaths
- March 26: First death
- March 17: 33 confirmed cases
- March 13: First two confirmed cases
- The country confirmed its first two cases on March 13, from two Venezuelans who’d traveled from Spain the week before. Local media outlet Efecto Cocuyo constructed a timeline in which the first cases appeared on February 25 in the state of Barinas.
- Vice President Delcy Rodríguez confirmed the country’s first death on March 26: a 47-year-old man who passed away in an area outside Caracas.
- On July 9, Constituent Assembly head and chavista strongman Diosdado Cabello announced he’d tested positive for COVID-19. The following day, Energy Minister Tareck El Aissami (whom the U.S. Department of Justice has indicted on drug trafficking charges) also confirmed his positive diagnosis. On August 3, after no public appearances since July 9, Cabello purportedly held a conversation with Nicolás Maduro, but said he couldn’t appear on camera because he was in “treatment.” Three days later, another video surfaced purportedly of a masked Cabello walking out of a house to greet supporters from a distance. As Cabello is the most visible face and voice of chavismo after Maduro, some doubted if it was in fact him in both videos. By contrast, El Aissami released a similar video on August 7, though without the same doubts about veracity.
- More than 7,000 Venezuelans are being infected each day—according to a September 9 Academy of Science report. That day, the official number of new cases was 1,188.
- Despite claims by Maduro that the country has 1 million tests and is completing up to 3,000 per day, the UN says Venezuela conducted 1,779 tests total between March 13 and 31. Just two laboratories in Venezuela are authorized to process PCR tests, compared to 81 in Colombia and more than a hundred in Argentina and Chile, according to a September 7 Financial Times article.
- Despite initial projections the health crisis could accelerate the Venezuelan exodus, the reverse is happening. Through the end of August, 100,000 Venezuelans had returned, according to the Wall Street Journal, with many walking hundreds of miles as the pandemic has shut down bus services. In March, the number of Venezuelans in Colombia fell for the first time in five years to 1,809,000, down 16,000 from the month prior. A late May survey of 390 Venezuelan migrants found that 31 percent plan to return to their home country, as the pandemic had made their already vulnerable situations in their host countries untenable. Four in 10 said they’d lost their jobs due the pandemic, and another five had lost income. Two-thirds said they were relying on donations for food. Maduro officials say the returning migrants represent a “threat” to the country and claim that 83 percent of Venezuela’s confirmed cases as of June 8 came from the 50,000 migrants who had come back during the pandemic.
- Opposition legislator and oncologist José Manuel Olivares said that health professionals accounted for 22 percent of Venezuela’s deaths as of August 3. A government survey of the country’s 47 hospitals dedicated to treating COVID-19 patients found that just 57 percent have regular water supply, 43 percent have insufficient or no PPE kits for medical professionals, and there are just 15 ambulances in the entire network, according to an independent media analysis of the survey published June 7. The report also estimates the country has about a third to a quarter of the ICU beds recommended by the WHO.
Government response
- Vaccine plan: On December 14, Maduro said vaccinations “might” start in April 2022, and that he was eager to see how Cuba’s four vaccine trials performed. He also proposed that the countries of the ALBA bloc create a pool for vaccine access. On December 12, the de facto president’s son, Nicolás Maduro Guerra, received the Sputnik V vaccine on television, as part of the third phase of the vaccine’s clinical trials. His father said on November 15 that he’d secured 10 million doses of that vaccine from Russia, enough to inoculate about 17 percent of the population. Venezuela approved Sputnik V for emergency use on January 13.
- Reopening plan: After an initial reopening at the end of May, Rodríguez announced on June 5 that the country would be instituting a new “7 + 7” plan, where the country goes on a strict lockdown for seven days, followed by seven days of more economic activity. The country entered seven days of lockdown on June 22.
- Several of Caracas’ main shopping centers reopened for business on June 15. Shoppers had to have their temperature taken before entering.
- Mitigation measures: After initially implementing a quarantine in select urban areas, Maduro expanded it nationwide on March 17. A so-called state of exception, which first went into effect on March 13, is in place through July 11. Authorities require masks for anyone using public transit.
- Unlike many countries where people with COVID-19 are told to treat their symptoms at home under quarantine, Maduro updated his government’s policy on April 7 so that anyone with a confirmed case of COVID-19 must report to a hospital or containment center. As the pandemic has worn on, these tactics have intensified, with officials labeling those who’ve come in contact with the virus as “bioterrorists” and asking neighbors to turn them in, per an August 19 New York Times report. Those who are “caught” being sick, as well as migrants returning after losing employment in other countries, are sent to spartan containment centers, where conditions are squalid and testing is negligible as it’s assumed everybody in there has the virus. In a September 21 report, Amnesty International qualified the state-run quarantines in Venezuela, along with El Salvador and Paraguay, as forms of repression, as there’s a high risk the detentions are arbitrary and human rights can be violated.
- On June 1, the Maduro government’s Health Ministry and the Guaidó-aligned health experts commission of the National Assembly signed an agreement to work jointly to combat the pandemic. It’s the first public cooperation agreement between the dueling administrations since Juan Guaidó became interim president in January 2019. The Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) agreed to coordinate the crisis response in Venezuela, on the condition that both administrations signed off on its participation and will allow its staff to carry out their work without interference, which they did.
- Over the weekend of April 25–26, there were various reports that masked colectivo street gangs—which support and are supported by the Maduro government—threatened residents in a Caracas neighborhood that they would use “any means necessary” against those they accuse of violating national quarantine measures. An August 7 Reuters article cited examples of security forces punishing and using violence against people on the street for infractions of pandemic measures.
- Travel and border restrictions: The government tightened restrictions on domestic terrestrial travel on June 22, including shutting down the Caracas Metro and closing main highways, as new hot spots emerged. All international and domestic flights are suspended through July 12.
- Though the border with Colombia is not fully closed, the Maduro administration is only permitting 1,200 migrants to return per week, a figure that represents less than a tenth of those waiting along the border to reenter.
- The Maduro administration on June 17 asked the UN to intervene to manage the “humanitarian bomb” of migrants returning from Brazil, where caseloads are high and government regulation low.
- School closings and restrictions: Rodríguez announced that schools were closed indefinitely on March 16.
- Other updates:
- Just 16 percent of voters said they’d be likely to vote in legislative elections scheduled for December 6, per a Datanálisis survey released August 18. Turnout in the last such elections in 2015 hit 74 percent. On July 7, Maduro authorized the Venezuelan military to oversee biosecurity measures for the vote.
- Per a July 7 report, the Center for Justice and Peace documented five ways the Maduro government stepped up political persecution during the pandemic: arbitrary detentions, attacks and raids on residences, censorship, and harassment.
- Doctors in the state of Lara sent a letter to the UN Human Rights Commission on June 10 to denounce what they said was repression by the state after the detention of four local doctors, two for supposedly violating quarantine and another for complaining on social media about a lack of PPE for doctors. All have since been released.
- Cabello threatened academics on May 13 with persecution and arrest for disseminating information about the spread of the coronavirus in the country. Venezuelan academics published a paper on May 8 that estimated the official number of cases was underreported by up to 95 percent, and projected the country will hit a peak of 4,000 cases per day in mid-June. Such reports generate “alarm” and “terror,” said Cabello during his regular television program. Already during the crisis, the Maduro regime has jailed journalists and one medical researcher for sharing information on the crisis, usually on charges of “treason” or “spreading hate” under a restrictive 2017 social media law.
- The UN Security Council took no action after holding a private meeting on April 28 to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. The five EU member countries currently on the council issued their own statement after the meeting, stating their “deep concern” about the situation, emphasizing human rights obligations under international law, and calling for distribution of aid to be depoliticized.
- Washington upped its pressure on Maduro to step down by unveiling a Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela on March 31. The plan’s goal is “to help Venezuelans escape the national crisis that falling oil prices and the coronavirus have now deepened,” wrote U.S. special envoy Elliott Abrams in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.
- Maduro appears to have been an early victim of a new policy by Twitter to mitigate the spread of false information about COVID-19. He complained in a March 23 national address that the platform deleted tweets he’d sent promoting a man’s claims to have concocted a plant-based cure for the virus.
Economic impact and measures
- GDP forecasts: With its economy in freefall for several years now, neither the World Bank nor the IMF includes Venezuela in regular reports, citing lack of reliable data. That said, the IMF does put a rough estimate of a 15 percent contraction for 2020.
- Fiscal stimulus and economic policy:
- On August 20, the Venezuelan opposition announced that the U.S. Treasury had approved the transfer of monies seized from corrupt chavista officials to the Guaidó administration via the digital currency exchange AirTM. In an announcement that evening, Guaidó said that with the funds, his administration will distribute $300 to 62,000 health workers over the course of three months. Maduro initially blocked the platform in Venezuela, but AirTM was able to provide instructions to users for how to circumvent the block.
- The Maduro government instituted price controls for 27 food products through the end of October in an effort to combat price speculation, Vice President Rodríguez announced April 25. The measure—which will affect Empresas Polar, the country’s largest food producer and one of the last large private companies in the country—comes in response to increased protests and looting of stores as health, food, and gasoline shortage crises converge.
- Citing the pandemic as an accelerator for the migratory crisis and situation of migrants in their host countries, the European Union committed $158 million in immediate humanitarian aid for Venezuelan migrants in a meeting on May 26. Spain, which is contributing almost half of the funds, says it is prioritizing Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru as recipients for its monies. Additionally, the European Investment Bank approved $440 million worth in new credit lines for programs that attend to the migrants.
- On March 17, the IMF denied a request by the Maduro government for a $5 billion emergency loan over the virus because there was “no clarity” as to who the country’s leader is—Maduro or Guaidó. The ask was a shift for Maduro, who derided the institution as recently as February.
- On March 24, Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and former president of Chile, called for an easing of global sanctions against a handful of countries, including Venezuela and Cuba, to allow for these countries to receive humanitarian and medical supplies. Speaking on a March 26 AS/COA panel, Carrie Filipetti of the U.S. State Department noted that Washington’s sanctions on Caracas do in fact include “carve-outs” for humanitarian assistance.
- Social programs:
- On March 22, Maduro announced that layoffs are prohibited through December 31, all residential and commercial rent payments will be suspended for six months, effective immediately, and that the government would help small- and medium-sized businesses make their payrolls. He also mentioned that interest payments on loans would be suspended for six months as well.
- Other updates:
- Venezuelan exports of goods fell almost 70 percent in the first six months of 2020, the biggest drop in Latin America and more than double the next biggest drop, according to a November 3 report by the IDB. Additionally, economists estimate that remittances from Venezuelans abroad to those in the country will be down 56 percent on the year, due to the pandemic.
- On April 20, global oil prices fell again so far that, given the discounts state oil firm PDVSA’s been offering, the country is now losing money on its barrels. Over 95 percent of Venezuelan exports come from oil production, which is down about 75 percent from its peak at the turn of the century. One symbol of the collapse: by June, Venezuela—a founding member of OPEC with the world’s largest proven oil reserves—was only the sixth-largest oil producer in Latin America, after Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico.
*Editor's note: This article previously stated that an April 14 Brazilian measure involved relaxing labor provisions for employees between the ages of 29 and 55 years old. However, the measure applied to employees between 18 and 29 and over 55.
Ernesto Aguilar, Daniela Cobos, Lee Evans, Pía Fuentealba, Diogo Ide, Luisa Leme, Maria de Lourdes Despradel, Ragnhild Melzi, and Adán Toledo have contributed to this content.