LatAm in Focus: As Brazil Faces a Familiar Rivalry, What's Changed for Voters?

While many voters have already settled into their political camps, “in general, Brazilians are not very happy with this competition,” says pollster Felipe Nunes. Speaking with AS/COA Online’s Luisa Leme, Nunes unpacks how an increasingly informed electorate wanting new options feels about having familiar options to address affordability and a sweeping corruption crisis ensnaring figures across the political spectrum. “Brazilians are thinking that they tried everything—they tried different groups, they tried different presidents—but their lives haven't changed significantly.”

What has changed, he says, is that Brazilians’ cultural and social values have become more important in determining their vote. Incumbent Lula is seeking to convince an entrepreneurial population that his administration's efforts to raise incomes will translate to improvements in affordability over the next four years. His most recent play was a 120-day ban on online gambling meant to tackle growing household debt. But will that move and boosts to Brazil’s welfare program be enough to help Lula break through his ceiling of support? Flávio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, hopes to both tap into and moderate his father’s firebrand political persona that galvanized the Brazilian right. Either candidate will need to win over urban women and independent voters, who Nunes estimates make up around 30 percent of the electorate. 

As for the effect of the Supreme Court scandal on the race, Nunes argues that “in a highly polarized election, scandals usually do not move large numbers of voters from one side to the other.” But, he added, it can activate voters and boost turnout, a decisive factor in this tight presidential election: “If we see a 50-50 vote intention in the second round, what will make the difference is if you guarantee that your voters will be able to show up.” 

Our guest

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Felipe Nunes is the CEO of Quaest, a leading polling and research firm in Brazil, and a professor at the São Paulo School of Economics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation university. He holds a PhD in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Nunes’ primary research interests focus on elections, polarization, and misinformation. In addition to writing several research papers on these topics, he has also authored two books: Brasil no espelho (Brazil in the Mirror, 2025) and Biografia do Abismo (Biography of the Abyss, 2023) with Thomas Traumann. 

This episode was produced by Executive Producer Luisa Leme with support from Associate Producer Khalea Robertson. Carin Zissis is your host.

Stay up to date with AS/COA Online’s ongoing coverage of Brazil’s 2026 elections, including our poll tracker that features Quaest surveys. And catch up on our content on all the key votes across the region this year in AS/COA Online’s Guide to 2026 Latin American Elections.  

Listen to past episodes with Felipe Nunes on the key issues that drove the 2022 election and that year’s Lula–Bolsonaro runoff.  

Share and subscribe at Apple, Spotify,YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Access other episodes of Latin America in Focus and send us feedback at latamfocus@as-coa.org. 

The music in the podcast is Paulo Bellinati's "Baião de gude” performed by Newman Oltman Guitar Duo and João Luiz for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Share your love for Latin America: Join Americas Society.  

Opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Society/Council of the Americas or its members.