Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election

This poll tracker was originally published on February 11, 2026, and has since been updated.

A rematch of sorts is brewing for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2011, 2023–present) of the Workers’ Party (PT) is running for an unprecedented fourth term at the age of 80. His foe in the last election, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2023), is ineligible to run after being indicted and imprisoned in September for plotting a coup.

But the Bolsonaro name will still be on the ballot. The ex-president endorsed one of his sons, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as candidate for Liberal Party (PL) to carry the family flag of his far-right movement.

In early 2026, Lula’s popularity numbers went down and Bolsonaro made strides. Polls showed the top two candidates tied in second round scenarios. However, Senator Bolsonaro’s numbers took a hit in June with the release of audios which show him asking Brazilian banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is accused of fraud, for $12 million to produce a movie about his father. He also had a public spat with his stepmother, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, who accused him of sidelining her. The two have since publicly reconciled. 

Lula and Bolsonaro are not the only candidates in the field. Governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (2019–2026) of the NOVO party and ex-Governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (2019–2026) of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). Meanwhile, Renan Santos, an anti-establishment activist, has seen his support grow among young Brazilians. 

Candidates must register by August 15, which kicks off the official campaign period from August 15 to October 3. 

Ahead of the October 4 first round, how are Brazil’s 156 million voters viewing the contest?