Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election

This poll tracker was originally published on February 11, 2026, and has since been updated.

A rematch of sorts is brewing for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2011, 2023–present) of the Workers’ Party (PT) is running for an unprecedented fourth term at the age of 80. His foe in the last election, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2023), is ineligible to run after being indicted and imprisoned in September for plotting a coup.

But the Bolsonaro name will still be on the ballot. The ex-president endorsed one of his sons, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as candidate for Liberal Party (PL) to carry the family flag of his far-right movement.

Since March, the election has been looking like a “coin-flip,” as the two candidates have been polling neck and neck. As Lula’s popularity numbers went down, Bolsonaro made strides and polls showed the top two candidates tied in second round scenarios. Senator Bolsonaro’s numbers took a hit in June with the release of audios which show him asking Brazilian banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is accused of fraud, for $12 million to produce a movie about his father.

With both candidates having recently met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, bilateral relations have increased in relevance to the election. After the Trump-Flávio meeting, Washington designated Brazilian organized crime groups as terrorist organizations and threatened new tariffs over trade investigations—two moves Lula pinned on his electoral opponent. Per Quaest’s polls, 47 percent of voters agree with him.

Lula and Bolsonaro are not the only candidates in the field. Governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (2019–2026) of the NOVO party and ex-Governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (2019–2026) of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). After changing parties and joining PSD, which is led by power broker Gilberto Kassab, Caiado became the nominee debunking two other governors in the caucus who then stepped out from the race. Meanwhile, Renan Santos, an activist, has seen his support grow among young Brazilians. Candidacies will be official in July. Meanwhile, June polls indicate an increase in the number of indecisive voters, increasing from five to 10 percent in the latest Quaest poll.

With months until the October 4 first round, how are Brazil’s 156 million voters viewing the contest?