Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election

This poll tracker was originally published on February 11, 2025, and has since been updated.

A rematch of sorts is brewing for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011, 2023-present) of the Workers’ Party (PT) is running for an unprecedented fourth term at the age of 80. His foe in the last election, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023), is ineligible to run after being indicted and imprisoned in September for plotting a coup.

But the Bolsonaro name will still be on the ballot. After speculation about who would carry the flag of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right movement, the ex-president endorsed his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as candidate for Liberal Party (PL). The two are polling neck and neck. In Americas Quarterly, Brian Winter writes that the "election now looks like a coin-flip." 

They're not the only candidates in the field. Other contenders include two right-wing leaders: ex-Governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema of the NOVO party and ex-Governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). In late March, Caiado became the nominee of the PSD, which is led by power broker Gilberto Kassab, after two other governors stepped out from the race.

With months until the October 4 first round, how are Brazil’s 156 million voters viewing the contest?