Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election

This poll tracker was originally published on February 11, 2026, and has since been updated.

A rematch of sorts is brewing for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2011, 2023–present) of the Workers’ Party (PT) is running for an unprecedented fourth term at the age of 80. His foe in the last election, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2023), is ineligible to run after being indicted and imprisoned in September for plotting a coup.

But the Bolsonaro name will still be on the ballot. After speculation about who would carry the flag of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right movement, the ex-president endorsed his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as candidate for the Liberal Party (PL).  In March, as Lula’s popularity numbers went down, Bolsonaro made strides and polls showed the top two, most well known, candidates tied in second round scenarios. The two have been polling neck and neck.

But now, Senator Bolsonaro took a hit after the release of audios which show him asking disgraced Brazilian banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is in jail and is accused of fraud, for $12 million to produce a movie about his father. 

Lula and Bolsonaro not the only candidates in the field. Governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (2019–2026) of the NOVO party and ex-Governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (2019–2026) of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). After changing parties and joining PSD, which is led by power broker Gilberto Kassab, Caiado became the nominee debunking two other governors in the caucus who then stepped out from the race. Meanwhile, Renan Santos, an activist, has seen his support grow among young Brazilians. Candidacies will be official in July.

With months until the October 4 first round, how are Brazil’s 156 million voters viewing the contest?