Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election

A rematch of sorts is brewing for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011, 2023-present) of the Workers’ Party (PT) is running for an unprecedented fourth term at the age of 80. His foe in the last election, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023), is ineligible to run after being indicted and imprisoned in September for plotting a coup.

But the Bolsonaro name will still be on the ballot. After speculation about who would carry the flag of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right movement, the ex-president endorsed his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as candidate for Liberal Party (PL).

Creating a political dynasty for the Bolsonaros, however, is not a unanimous plan among Brazil’s right. The family itself disagreed on who should replace the elder Bolsonaro as a candidate.

Even before the former president started his sentence in 2025, right-wing leaders were eyeing the contest. Also in the running are three governors: Ratinho Junior of Paraná, Ronaldo Caiado of Goiás, and Eduardo Leite of Rio Grande do Sul—all of whom won their posts in the same 2019 election that swept Bolsonaro into power. The three governors are all now members of the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), helmed by power broker Gilberto Kassab, who says he plans to mobilize his party behind a single candidate. 

Governor of São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicans, once preferred by Kassab and the financial markets, has said he will not run for president and declared support for Senator Bolsonaro. Governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema, of the NOVO party, has also announced his bid. 

While the opposition finalizes its roster, polls still show Lula, who had a 48 percent approval rating in AtlasIntel’s January survey, in the lead and winning in runoffs—despite Brazilians questioning his performance on issues like security. About 45 percent of Brazilians say they would never vote for Lula, per DataFolha’s November survey compared with a 50 percent rejection rate for Flávio Bolsonaro.

With months until the October 4 first round, how are Brazil’s 156 million voters viewing the contest?