One Big Question: What's Changed in Brazil's Presidential Race ahead of the Runoff?

AS/COA Online: What changed in the Brazilian presidential competition in the three weeks between the first and second round?

Guilherme Casarões: We've seen two very different campaign strategies emerge after the first round. At first, Flávio was talking as if he had just been elected president. That held his campaign back for at least a week.

Meanwhile, Lula's campaign suffered this massive blow on October 4 and the first few days were tough. Then it started to get energized once again. Some analysts even argued that there was no campaign during the first round because everyone was talking about the Banco Master scandal or the Supreme Court involvement with disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro. And because Lula is the incumbent, he wasn't really engaged in the campaign.

But in the second round, we’ve seen a different Lula. He’s paying much more attention to the role of social media and there’s been this bottom-up, spontaneous, and organic mobilization across social media channels and WhatsApp. There have been two major figures involved: Ana Elisa Santos, a congresswoman from Minas Gerais, and André Janones, who is responsible for putting together that massive WhatsApp group called Lula's Army, which, as of now, has over 7 million subscribers.

Flávio's campaign has always been about social media and he does it very well. His allies are social media geniuses. But in the second round the Lula campaign has been able to set the tone, and his opponent’s campaign has been reactive. Lula is trying to work a last miracle. He's paying more attention to the notion that he must make a case for continuity when most Brazilians really want a change. He’s talking more about the future.

Another part of Lula’s new strategy is pointing out all the crimes Bolsonaro is associated with. Lula made a challenge in the first debate of the second round on October 18 and said, "I can open up my bank reports if Flávio does the same because I have nothing to hide." That was very new in Brazilian politics, one politician challenging the other on corruption like this.

Flávio is trying to dismantle Lula's digital and social media strategy. His campaign has been appealing to the Supreme Electoral Court to ban some WhatsApp groups or to censor some alleged fake news. It’s ironic because misinformation accusations happened against [his father and former President] Jair Bolsonaro back in 2018.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.