Election posters in Brazil. (AP)

Election posters in Brazil. (AP)

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One Big Question: Does It Matter that Lula and Flávio Refused to Debate?

“This debate would have been an opportunity to stir up enthusiasm. But it’s so close, [they] opted for caution,” says AS/COA VP Brian Winter.

With just three days until Brazilians vote in the October 4 first round, TV Globo was set to host a final presidential debate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro had originally planned to participate, but withdrew after learning his opponent, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, would not attend. With the frontrunners out and the Supreme Court questioning the debate rules, TV Globo canceled. Lula instead appeared on one of Brazil’s most popular podcasts and spoke to a live audience of young voters. Meanwhile, Flávio went live on social media to reinforce key campaign messages, such as criticism of the Supreme Court.

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Brian Winter

That means Brazilian voters will go to the polls without having watched a direct exchange between the two frontrunners, who are running neck and neck. 

We asked Americas Quarterly Editor-in-Chief and AS/COA Vice President Brian Winter for a reflection on the debate debacle.

AS/COA Online: For the first time in 20 years, the top two candidates in a Brazilian election haven’t faced each other in a debate. Why does it—or why doesn't it—matter?

Winter: Lula and Bolsonaro's lack of participation matters because this was a last-minute chance that both candidates had to stir up some enthusiasm in a race that is very polarized, but where it’s hard to find anyone really excited about their candidate.

It’s been a weird election cycle. The two major candidates have very different visions on where to lead the country, but both have major weaknesses.

Lula would be 81 at the time of the inauguration of this term. For a lot of Brazilians, he has not recaptured the magic of his first two terms, even though the economy, broadly speaking, has been okay. Still, there are lots of affordability concerns, similar to preoccupations here in the United States.

On the other side, Flávio is not the Bolsonaro the Brazilian right wanted. They wanted his dad, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest. And, Flávio, like many Brazilian leaders, has been accused of being a part of this scandal with disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, but he denies any wrongdoing.

This debate would have been an opportunity to stir up enthusiasm, but it’s so close, the two candidates opted for caution. They wanted to make sure nothing could happen that would hurt them, a more defensive approach to campaigning. Both Lula and Flávio are saving their ammunition for a second round that will be very tight and where the most minor gaffe or allegation of corruption could ultimately decide the result.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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