Mexico Elects: Ongoing Coverage of the 2024 Vote
Mexico Elects: Ongoing Coverage of the 2024 Vote
Get the latest updates on developments in the country's June 2 elections for president, legislators, governors, and more.
Initial coverage was originally published on December 7, 2023. New content is regularly added.
With more than 20,000 posts up for grabs on June 2, Mexico’s 2024 general elections will reshape the country’s political landscape. But questions about potential outcomes abound.
Who will replace popular President Andrés Manuel López Obrador when he finishes his single, six-year term? Will his governing Morena coalition, which controls two-thirds of the governorships, expand its control at the state level? Will the main opposition parties’ efforts to join forces in the Frente Amplio por México coalition lead them to more victories? Will Morena’s Claudia Sheinbaum or the Frente’s Xóchitl Gálvez be the country’s first woman president? What role will Movimiento Ciudadano, a political party opting to go it alone, play in the outcome? And, with U.S. and Mexican presidential votes coinciding for the first time in 12 years, how will bilateral relations play out in a dual election year?
With ongoing updates, explainers, and poll tracking, AS/COA Online provides the background to help answer these questions and others in this pivotal election cycle.
It may seem like the Mexican elections have been going on for ages, but the official campaigns finally start on March 1, spanning a three-month period until election day.
Where will each candidate kick off her or his official campaign, and what’s the significance of each location?
Frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum plans to launch her campaign in the place where she was born, raised, and grew her political career: Mexico City. The former mayor will do so at 4 pm local time in the capital’s giant central plaza, or Zócalo. In doing, she is not only selecting a historic site surrounded by the National Palace and Aztec ruins but a location known for mass gatherings, political and cultural events, and protests. Governing Morena party leader Mario Delgado said that the event will not only mark the beginning of Sheinbaum’s campaign, but also “send a message to President [AMLO] that the people are with him.”
Xóchitl Gálvez, meanwhile, chose Fresnillo in the state of Zacatecas to kick off her campaign at midnight. Gálvez says she chose the location because residents there have Mexico’s highest levels of perceptions of insecurity, with some 97 percent of the city’s inhabitants saying they feel unsafe when it comes to crime. Fresnillo has become a battleground in a turf war between two cartels.
In choosing the city, Gálvez draws attention to an issue seen as a weak spot for the popular AMLO government. Per a February poll, 71 percent of Mexicans say they disapprove of his government’s handling of public security matters.
Later on Friday, Gálvez plans to continue her launch tour with a stop in the city of Aguascalientes (in the state of the same name) followed by a large event in Irapuato, Guanajuato. That state is a stronghold of Gálvez’s PAN party, and it was the only state out of Mexico’s 32 that AMLO lost in the 2018 presidential vote.
Jorgé Álvarez Máynez will also shine a spotlight on violence concerns when he initiates his campaign in Lagos de Moreno in the state of Jalisco. The city has not only been an epicenter of violence but was home to five young men who were kidnapped in August 2023 in a case that drew national attention due to a horrific leaked video of their murder. Both the city and the state are governed by Álvarez Máynez’s party, Citizen’s Movement.
Overall, the issue of insecurity is casting a shadow over the official start of campaigns amid fears that political violence and intimidation by organized crime groups will shape the outcome of elections. Learn more: In its February 29 episode, weekly podcast Política y Otros Datos digs into concerns about political violence and corruption in this electoral round. Another podcast series by N+, Política Déjà Vu, covers the history of political violence in Mexico.
One last look at the polls before we begin. Polling remains fairly steady since Sheinbaum and Gálvez’s presidential hopes were cemented in the summertime, with poll aggregator Oraculus giving Sheinbaum (63 percent) more than a 30-point advantage over Gálvez (31 percent). Álvarez Máynez trails well behind at 5 percent.
Nearly half of Mexico’s voters are under 40. Me Veo’s Alexandra Zapata and LAPOP Lab’s Noam Lupu join our second 2024 election series episode.
Presidential frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum’s platform took shape this weekend, though not exactly by her own doing. On February 5—a Mexican holiday celebrating the anniversary of the country’s 1917 Constitution—President AMLO unveiled a package of 20 reforms covering areas ranging from energy to pensions to animal rights. With 18 of the measures requiring constitutional reforms, it’s expected they will face major hurdles getting the required two-thirds congressional majority needed to pass. But, as we noted on January 18, by presenting the reforms before the official start of campaigns in March, the president sets the agenda for electoral talking points.
Moreover, AMLO’s move charted a roadmap of issues for his potential successor, Sheinbaum, to follow should she win and carry on the political legacy of his movement, known as the Fourth Transformation. A day after he shared his reform package, she revealed that she would launch her official campaign with a March 1 event in Mexico City’s main plaza to defend his 20-point plan.
So, what’s in the package? Proposals cover a wide range of topics and include banning fracking and open-air mining, prohibiting vaping and chemical drugs such as fentanyl, limiting water concessions in drought-affected areas, and converting privatized railways used for cargo into passenger lines.
But some proposals are gaining extra attention, such as a reform that would see retirees earn pensions equivalent to 100 percent of their salaries at the end of their careers. Another eliminates the federal legislative seats determined through proportional representation, thereby reducing the number of lower house members from 500 to 300 and halving senatorial seats from 128 to 64. The reform would see members of electoral agencies selected through direct election. It would also reduce the portion of voters needed to validate referendums—including presidential recall votes—from 40 percent to 30 percent. Other reforms would see direct election of Supreme Court justices and the elimination of autonomous regulatory bodies handling areas such as transparency, telecommunications, and energy. Finally, his proposals include a measure that would make austerity a matter of state policy.
Reforms covering areas such as pensions and railways seek to undo changes made by preceding governments that AMLO frames as neoliberal. Others replicate some of his failed reforms—particularly his proposed changes to electoral agencies, which sparked widespread protests in 2023. Now, observers warn that the reforms would weaken checks and balances, whether by giving the governing party more presence in Congress, granting control over electoral agencies back to the ruling party, or making sitting presidents more vulnerable to recall votes. Sheinbaum defended the proposals, saying they boost social and human rights.
The other side’s pitch. Meanwhile, a document obtained by El Universal in late January outlines a draft platform for the opposition coalition and, as the Mexican outlet says, much of it seeks “to revert a large part of what has been carried out by the AMLO administration.” Proposals include restoring daycare programs—as well as the trade and investment promotion agency ProMéxico—and overhauling of state oil firm Pemex. On the security and justice front, the alliance pledges that the National Guard would be an agency under civil command and the penitentiary system would be reformed, as would police training. In addition, the coalition would seek to conduct a deep evaluation of the AMLO government’s cornerstone infrastructure projects, such as the Maya Train in the Yucatán Peninsula and the Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco.
Speaking of states. Polls.mx is monitoring races across the board, including in the nine gubernatorial competitions taking place. At this time, Morena’s coalition leads in six, including in Mexico City, considered the crown jewel of the 32 states. The opposition Frente Amplio por México alliance is a handful of points ahead in Guanajuato and Yucatán. Citizen’s Movement holds a two-point lead in another key state, Jalisco.
Polls show close races in a number of instances and official campaigns are not yet underway, making it too early to predict outcomes. But, if results ended up mirroring current polling, incumbent parties and alliances would win.—Carin Zissis
Two new polls came out this week, and they’re not exactly telling the same story. Enkoll’s poll shows Sheinbaum solidifying her lead, rising five points to 54 percent. Gálvez saw an increase of four points to 27 percent. But, with Álvarez Máynez at the helm, the MC saw a 14-point drop in support to just 3 percent.
El Financiero’s polls, on the other hand, show Sheinbaum dropping four points to 48 percent in an apparent gain for Álvarez Máynez, who rose to 10 percent. Perhaps even more notable is the MC’s six-point gain in polling for the lower house of Congress. Why does it matter? The party previously voted with the opposition in Congress, but some of its players—Álvarez Máynez included—have been increasingly critical of the PAN and the PRI, leading many to wonder if the party could swing to Morena’s side in the future. With 11-percent support, polling suggests it could become the third-biggest party in the Chamber of Deputies—and a political bloc that either side will seek to win over.
But a key difference between the polls is Sheinbaum’s lead. In Enkoll’s, she’s ahead by 27 points. El Financiero, however, has her ahead by 16. Writing in Nexos, Jorge Castañeda covers the discrepancy, differences between polling methods, and why the two disagree on whether or not “the rice is cooked” in election terms. El Financiero’s pollster, Alejandro Moreno, meanwhile, argues that past elections show the biggest swings in Mexican presidential polling have typically taken place in the spring, when official campaigns are underway.
Claudia “energizes” her campaign. Sheinbaum unveiled a major plank of her campaign: a promise to get over 50 percent of Mexico’s energy grid powered by renewable energy. “Mexico has to accelerate its energy transition,” she said, while signaling an openness to private investment.
Xóchitl’s Morning Rebuttals. One of the mainstays of AMLO’s sexenio has been his mañaneras, his daily morning news conferences in which he speaks off-the-cuff to an audience of mainly reporters. Gálvez announced on January 25 that she would be doing her own version, dubbed, “truth conferences,” to rebut AMLO’s morning address each day of the inter-campaign period, which ends February 29. —Carin Zissis and Chase Harrison
For the past two months, presidential aspirants have been making their initial cases to supporters during pre-campaigns, despite not yet being official candidates.
With that period wrapping up, Mexico’s electoral agency (INE) laid out the schedule for the presidential debates during the official campaign season, which runs from March 1 to May 29. In a shift to centralization from prior electoral rounds, all three debates will be held in the capital. The first, on April 7, will feature questions taken via social media. The second, on April 28, will allow for direct questions from the audience. The third, on May 19, is described as a “face-to-face between candidates” to focus on interaction between the contenders. The INE requires all official presidential candidates to participate.
But even as debate agenda was set, opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez challenged the incumbent party’s Claudia Sheinbaum to a debate before the pre-campaigns' end on January 18. Gálvez—who noted the discussion should focus on the major challenges of healthcare, corruption, and security—implied Sheinbaum may need to get permission from AMLO to participate. Sheinbaum responded that “a lot of provocation won’t lead to a rise in the polls,” alluding to Gálvez’s trailing poll numbers.
As this period of the electoral cycle closes, it appears pre-campaign activities have had limited impact on the polls, which continue to give Sheinbaum’s Morena coalition a more than 20-point lead over Gálvez’s Broad Front. Jorge Álvarez Máynez’s Citizen’s Movement trails far behind.
Meanwhile, AMLO announced that he plans to introduce 10 reforms to Congress on February 5. The proposals will shape the electoral agenda, given that candidates at various levels will find themselves campaigning for or against AMLO’s reforms. Perhaps the most controversial of the proposals involves a judicial reform that would see direct election of Supreme Court justices, and it comes at a time when the Court has proven to be a counterbalance to executive powers. Other reforms gaining attention include one that would seek to give retirees pensions equivalent to their full salaries while another proposal would shut down autonomous oversight agencies.
What comes next? From January 19 until the start of the official campaigns on March 1, the contenders cannot promote their candidacies, but they can attend interviews and events. Political parties can air general messages. In addition, the INE will audit spending of the parties and candidates during this period. The presidential hopefuls will officially register their candidacies from February 15 to 22. It is expected that Sheinbaum, Gálvez, and Álvarez Máynez will be the three candidates.—Carin Zissis
One big question has loomed over Mexico’s pre-campaign period: Besides the two women representing the country’s main coalitions, will anyone else be on the presidential ballot in June? We now have the answer.
On January 9, Nuevo León Governor Samuel García, who saw his own presidential hopes dashed last month (see the December 7 post), revealed his substitute to be the pre-candidate for the Citizen’s Movement (MC) party: Jorge Álvarez Máynez, his former campaign coordinator. In an X post targeting younger voters, García shared a video in which he’s having a beer with Álvarez Máynez, who is donning orange sneakers—an MC trademark pioneered by García’s wife, Mariana Rodríguez, who also appears in the post. “We’re going to show Mexico and the old way of doing politics that they have messed with the wrong generation,” said García.
Indeed, at 38, Álvarez Máynez would be the youngest of the candidates by more than two decades. Still, the Zacatecas native has been involved in politics since he was 18, when he affiliated himself with AMLO’s former party, the PRD. Over the years, he hopped from one party to another, holding his first major political post as leftist legislator for the PRI in his home state from 2010 to 2013, during which time he presented initiatives to decriminalize abortion and same-sex marriage. In 2013, he joined the MC and, most recently, served as a federal deputy and the party’s coordinator in the lower House of Congress.
On January 10, the MC officially registered the pre-candidacy of Álvarez Máynez, but García’s social media reveal had already sparked jokes about the young deputy's lack of name recognition. Regardless of that challenge, the MC polls a distant third in Mexico’s presidential race. Still, he is viewed as a close ally of party head Dante Delgado. Competing in the election would elevate his name him in line to take over MC leadership when Delgado steps down.
While the MC will vie for the presidency, the ballot will lack an independent candidate. No independent contender was able to secure enough signatures to qualify. Hard-right hopeful Eduardo Verástegui secured the largest number, but still garnered just 14 percent of the nearly one million needed by the January 6 deadline. There will also be no independent candidates for senator. However, there will be nearly 15 independent aspirants for the Chamber of Deputies, and nearly half of them—seven—will be on the ballot in the state of Hidalgo.—Carin Zissis
The two main institutions charged with overseeing elections in Mexico have faced recent internal battles raising concerns about their ability to perform their functions with less than six months to go. In early December, the electoral court known as the TEPFJ—which is charged with settling electoral disputes and certifying results—experienced a controversial leadership change when its president, Reyes Rodríguez Mondragón, was pressured to hand in his resignation by a group of fellow ministers. On December 15, a majority of court members elected another minister, Mónica Soto, to lead the tribunal. Amid speculation that she has ties to the ruling Morena party, Soto herself cast the tie-breaking vote in her favor. She assumes leadership on January 1.
Meanwhile, the National Electoral Agency (INE)—the top institution handling electoral processes—has witnessed a flurry of senior-level resignations. This also comes amid claims of a divide between allies and opponents of INE President Guadalupe Taddei. She ascended to her role in April 2023 amid a polarized struggle in which López Obrador sought to reform the agency. Thousands took to the streets nationwide to protest his efforts.
Speaking of allies and opponents, despite the fact that the PRI is part of the opposition alliance, a group of high-profile PRI members announced their support for the candidacy Morena’s Claudia Sheinbaum on December 19. The 18 priistas—some of whom had already exited the party previously— launched what they call “the progressive alliance,” which includes former Governors of Oaxaca Alejandro Murat and of the State of Mexico Eruviel Ávila.
The pre-campaign event scorecard: Near the midway point in the pre-campaigns, Animal Político reports that Gálvez has canceled 29 percent of her events, holding 49 since the period began. Sheinbaum has held 168 and plans to hold another 192 by the time pre-campaigns end on January 18.—Carin Zissis
When Xóchitl Gálvez announced her presidential bid in June 2023, she entered the race with a bit of a hue of an outsider. Though she represented the National Action Party (PAN) in the Senate, she was not officially a member of any particular political party and many wondered from where she would source her campaign team. “If she becomes the candidate, it’s going to be incredibly hard for her to put together a campaign team that works and that represents all the people that are supporting her,” political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor told Americas Quarterly at the time.
On December 5, Gálvez revealed her complete team, made up of 24 people from the three parties in the Broad Front for Mexico (or FAM) coalition. Key names include campaign manager Santiago Creel, a long-time PAN member and former legislator who was a presidential aspirant earlier this year. Two former official presidential candidates are also on the team: Senator Josefina Vázquez Mota, who ran as the PAN candidate in 2012, and former First Lady Margarita Zavala, who ran as an independent in 2018. Prominent names from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) include ex-Foreign Secretary and former presidential aspirant this year Enrique de la Madrid—charged with overseeing the proposed plan for her government and former Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo, who will focus on foreign affairs. Below is the full list announced December 5, 2023:
- Santiago Creel, campaign manager
- Armando Tejeda, head of operations
- Carolina Viggiano, executive coordinator
- Ángel Ávila, alliance coordinator
- Kenia López Ramadán, head of the pre-candidate’s office
- Rubén Moreira, coordinator of national territories
- Maximiliano Cortázar, coordinator of social communication
- Josefina Vázquez Mota, coordinator of campaign leaders
- Margarita Martínez Fisher, coordinator of voting campaigns
- Jesús Ortega Martínez, strategic coordinator
- Margarita Zavala, lead on civil society
- Enrique de la Madrid, lead on government plan
- Norma Aceves, lead on attention for people with disabilities
- Fernando Rodríguez Doval, content coordinator
- Alejandra Latapí, coordinator of institutional ties
- Ildefonso Guajardo, lead on foreign relations
- Alejandra Reynoso, lead on social causes
- Blanca Alcalá Ruiz, lead on migration issues
- Leticia Barrera Maldonado, lead on rural ties
- Alessandra Rojo de la Vega, lead on social activism
- Julieta Camacho Granados, lead on social management
- Deborah Romero Vázquez, lead on women’s issues
- Moisés Gómez Reyna, lead on agenda
In addition, Gálvez announced that her two children, Diana Vega Gálvez and Juan Pablo Sánchez Gálvez, will have—per the candidate—unpaid social media roles.
For her part, frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum announced her team on November 27. The list is made up of big names in the governing Morena party’s Together We Make History alliance, such as former Interior Minister and close AMLO ally Adán Augusto López as her political coordinator; Gerardo Fernández Noroña, an outspoken former legislator for the Labor Party, as social organizations coordinator and spokesperson; and ex-Senator Ricardo Monreal as national territory coordinator. Mario Delgado, the Morena party president, will serve in the role of campaign manager. Tatiana Clouthier, former economy minister and an important figure in AMLO’s 2018 campaign, is making a notable comeback as spokesperson coordinator. Below is the full list announced November 27, 2023:
- Mario Delgado, pre-campaign coordinator
- Adán Augusto López, political coordinator
- Ricardo Monreal, coordinator of national territories
- Gerardo Fernández Noroña, coordinator of social organizations and pre-campaign spokesperson
- Jesús Valdez Peña, coordinator of international organizations and Mexicans abroad
- Tatiana Clouthier, coordinator of spokespeople
- Citlalli Hernández, coordinator of the alliance
- Renata Turrent, coordinator of ties with the academic community
- Regina Orozco, coordinator of ties with the cultural community
- Esthela Damián, tour coordinator
In addition, on December 3, Sheinbaum announced a strategic team made up of 17 specialists who are charged with, among other things, overseeing forums on major policy issues. Coordinated by former Mexican Ambassador to the UN Juan Ramón de la Fuente, team members include economist Gerardo Esquivel; former PAN Governor of Chihuahua Javier Corral; Sheinbaum’s ex-chief of public security in Mexico City Omar García Harfuch; former Interior Minister Olga Sánchez Cordero; former head of the Supreme Court Arturo Zaldívar; business leader Alta Gracia Gómez Sierra; and historian Lorenzo Meyer.
In other news, following Nuevo León Governor Samuel García’s failed bid to be the presidential candidate for the Citizen’s Movement, his wife, Mariana Rodríguez, announced that she will seek to be a candidate to be mayor of Monterrey, the state’s capital. (See the post from December 7 below for more. —Carin Zissis
Samuel García, 35, seemed like a competitive presidential candidate in the making. As the governor of business-friendly border state Nuevo León, he proudly displays JFK memorabilia in his office. He and his wife, Mariana Rodríguez, document their lives on social media—birth of their daughter included. Though he polled third among presidential candidates, García drew his strongest support from the country’s sizable youth voting bloc.
But just a few days after launching his pre-campaign, his state descended into chaos due to a dispute over who would step in temporarily as governor during the six-month period that he would compete for the presidency. The state legislature, controlled by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN), selected the interim governor, which would have meant García’s Citizens’ Movement (MC) party would lose executive control of the state.
Faced with that setback and a legal deadline for him to vacate the governorship, García decided to reinstate himself and Nuevo León woke up on December 2 with two governors. That afternoon, he officially withdrew his presidential bid. By the end of the first week of December, interim Governor Luis Enrique Orozco has ceded the governorship back to García, who is in the second year of a six-year term.
Not only did the turmoil wreak havoc on Nuevo León’s state politics, but it left the MC without a presidential aspirant. Party leader Dante Delgado indicated on December 4 that the party could potentially name another candidate in January. Two days later, he announced that the MC would exit the opposition’s bloc in the Senate, which includes the PRI, PAN, and Party of the Democratic Revolution. That bloc served as a legislative counterbalance to the governing party’s Morena coalition. The move stoked speculation that the MC is increasingly aligning with López Obrador and Morena. —Carin Zissis
Pollster Lorena Becerra and political scientist Javier Aparicio explain the meteoric rise—and the 2024 electoral test—for President AMLO’s political party.
Mexico’s 2024 election will be the biggest in the country’s history. That’s not just due to the sheer number of voters but because—for the first time—all 32 of the country’s states will hold concurrent elections for local seats, in addition to the presidential contest. Mexican voters will cast ballots for more than 20,000 posts across the country. That’s about six times the number of posts up for grabs during the last general elections in 2018.
The year 2024 also marks a decade since governing party Morena officially registered as a party. In the 10 years since, Morena has become the leading political force in the country with popular President Andrés Manuel López Obrador as its figurehead.
With an eye to the country’s massive vote on June 2, 2024, AS/COA Online maps out the electoral calendar, the positions up for grabs at the federal and state level, what’s at stake in the gubernatorial races, and the demographics of the electorate.
Read the full article and access charts mapping the race.—Carin Zissis and Jon Orbach