Colombia Elects 2026: Ongoing Coverage of the Presidential Race—Cepeda Wins Ballot Lottery

The dates: May 31 first round, June 21 runoff, July 28 inauguration 
The details: A candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to avoid a runoff. In a second round, an absolute majority wins. The victor holds office for one four-year term with no possibility of reelection. 
Turnout: Turnout averages 46 percent and was 55 percent in the 2022 first round. 
The voters: 41.4 million; Colombians can cast ballots from abroad

There are two types of candidates: those who won one of the three interparty primaries held in conjunction with the March 8 legislative elections and candidates who chose to compete directly in the May 31 first round.

The frontrunners: Human rights activist and leftist Senator Iván Cepeda, the governing Historic Pact’s candidate, is looking to continue in the path of President Gustavo Petro. He may benefit from Petro’s relatively strong approval rating, which pollster Invamer puts at 49 percent. Courting the other side of the spectrum is Defenders of the Homeland’s Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer pitching himself as an outsider in the vein of Argentina’s Javier Milei. Then there’s the Democratic Center’s Paloma Valencia, a senator and close ally of former President Álvaro Uribe. She was the big winner in the primaries and will represent the center-right bloc.

Other notables: Two centrist former mayors—Sergio Fajardo of Medellín and Claudia López of Bogotá—are making a play for the presidency. Roy Barreras, an ex-senator, won the leftist coalition’s primary, but polls well behind other candidates.

• What happened: Electoral authorities finalized the first-round ballot.
• Why it matters: In a crowded field, ballot order can help—or harm—contenders.
• What to watch next: Cepeda’s poll lead has deepened the battle between leading candidates on the right to make the runoff ballot.

On March 25, Colombia’s electoral authorities unveiled the official ballot for the first round. The order was determined by lottery and placement matters. With 14 candidates, the 2026 ballot will include the largest number of candidates since the 1994 election—and nearly double the number on the 2022 ballot. On that front Iván Cepeda won the luck of the draw, appearing first in the order. As far as other frontrunners go, Abelardo de la Espriella took the first spot in the second row, while Paloma Valencia sits lower down the paper in the twelfth spot.

Así quedó la posición de candidatos en la tarjeta electoral para las elecciones presidenciales del 31 de mayo. #Elecciones2026🗳️ #YoConfíoEnElProcesoElectoral pic.twitter.com/29PpFVuPjt

— Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil (@Registraduria) March 25, 2026

Cepeda, the governing party candidate, is benefiting from more than ballot placement. A new Atlas Intel poll has Petro’s approval rising nearly two points to 42 percent. While that level may seem low compared to the popularity of Latin American leaders like Nayib Bukele or Claudia Sheinbaum, it marks the pollster’s highest approval levels for the Colombian leader since the start of his term, and well above the rates in the latter half of the term of his center-right presidential predecessor, Ivan Duque (2018–2022). So far, Petro’s approval appears to be a boost to Cepeda, whose poll numbers place him in the race’s lead. The candidate, meanwhile, is seeking to solidify his support by expanding his political committee with the goal of winning over allies beyond the left’s base to secure his spot on a June 21 runoff ballot. 

At the same time, the competition on the right is only heating up between De la Espriella and Valencia. Although her placement on the first-round ballot may not help, center-right Valencia has been rising in polls to the detriment of hard-right De la Espriella. That’s meant rising tensions within the right, even as an endorsement from whoever doesn’t make the second round would be key to challenging Cepeda. 

By Carin Zissis

• What happened: Post-primaries, presidential candidates selected their vice-presidential hopefuls.
• Why it matters: Both right-wing frontrunners made selections demonstrating a play for the center, while Cepeda’s choice doubled down on his leftist base.
• What to watch next: Can the Valencia and Oviedo ticket win over their rivals’ supporters, or will their differences harm their chances with the anti-Cepeda vote?

More than a hundred candidates threw their hats in the presidential ring at the start of the race. Back then, Colombia Risk Analysis’ Sergio Guzmán told AS/COA Online’s Latin America in Focus podcast: “There needs to be a strong period of reflection in our body politic about the future...That can't happen when you lift a cup and there's a Colombian presidential candidate announcing that they're running.”  In sum, he said, “The Colombian electorate doesn’t yet appear to know what it’s looking for in a successor.”

Nearly six months later, the crowd has been whittled down to a field of 14 on the official ballot, and “undecided” voters are steadily shrinking. Plus, days after the primaries, candidates locked in their running mates in the hopes that their choices can secure their bases—or win over rivals’ supporters.

Looking at the three poll leaders, Cepeda appeared to follow the former strategy by selecting Senator Aida Quilcué of Cauca, a historically conflict-ridden region in the country's southwest. Quilcué, who has held various national and international leadership roles related to indigenous rights, personally felt the impact of that violence in 2008 when soldiers opened fire on her husband’s car, fatally injuring him. Cepeda and Quilcué will officially launch their campaign with a March 20 indigenous ceremony in Cauca. 

De la Espriella, meanwhile, a made a play for moderate voters in his selection of José Manuel Restrepo, who served first as trade minister and then finance minister during the administration of center-right President Iván Duque (2018–2022). Restrepo, a long-time academic, would likely focus on fiscal discipline and marks a sober choice alongside de la Espriella’s populist style.

But perhaps no other running-mate choice has drawn more attention than Valencia’s pick of economist Juan Daniel Oviedo, a technocrat centrist who defied polls to place second in the primaries. Oviedo, who ran Colombia’s statistics agency during the Duque administration, won over voters thanks to social media success and a unifying message about his own life struggles, having suffered a childhood accident that left him with a speech impediment, acknowledging “we all have scars.” 

The question now is whether the ticket can unify the right and center behind Valencia’s candidacy, given substantive policy differences with her running mate. Oviedo has rejected Valencia's criticism of key aspects of the country’s 2016 peace agreement.  Valencia opposes adoption by same-sex couples while her openly gay running mate disagrees with her. Oviedo believes Gaza is facing a genocide; Valencia says she would not qualify it as such. 

The two do agree on many major problems facing the country, however: the fiscal deficit, an energy crisis, and weak productive investment. 

Will voters back the ticket despite the differences? Valencia has said they shouldn’t expect either side to change. “Neither Juan Daniel Oviedo nor I will abandon our convictions. We can build from our differences.” 

By Carin Zissis.

• What happened: Paloma Valencia won the center-right consultation, Claudia López won the centrist contest, and Roy Barreras won the leftist primary.
• Why it matters: Valencia’s coalition won four out of five votes cast in presidential primaries, but frontrunners Cepeda and de la Espriella didn’t compete.
• What to watch next: Which candidates can turn primary victories into cross-bloc support as the field narrows?

There’s one thing we know for certain about Colombia’s 2026 electoral process: President Gustavo Petro can’t run again. But, as the March 8 presidential primaries showed, polls thus far may not be a safe indicator of who will take his place.  

In the Sunday vote, Colombians cast ballots in an inter-party competition to select the presidential candidates representing three coalitions: one each for the left, center, and center right. Not only did conservative Senator Paloma Valencia exceed polling expectations, but her center-right coalition’s results proved voters may be looking for less polarizing options. Given that two of the top contenders, Iván Cepeda on the left and Abelardo de la Espriella on the far-right, skipped the primaries to go right to the May 31 first-round competition, will Valencia’s resounding victory end up resetting the race? 

On the same day as the primaries, voters also selected their next Congress, and the fragmented result means the next president will need to build alliances. While Petro’s party won the most seats in the Senate, the lower house's makeup was unclear and the time of this report, and no party was close to having a legislative majority.  

1. Paloma Valencia’s win changes the electoral balance….

Read the full article by Carin Zissis and Chase Harrison.