Poll Tracker: Ecuador's 2023 Presidential Election 

By Jon Orbach

In a special electoral cycle marred by violence, voters will choose between Luisa González and Daniel Noboa in the October 15 runoff.

This tracker was first published on August 15, 2023, and has since been updated.

Following a tumultuous first-round vote, Ecuadorans selected two former lawmakers, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa, to advance to the October 15 runoff.

Ecuadorans will vote for a new president on August 20 after the current one, Guillermo Lasso, invoked a constitutional mechanism in May that triggered fresh elections for both the presidency and the legislature. Neither Lasso nor anyone from his conservative CREO party will participate in the competition, in which eight candidates of diverse backgrounds are competing for the presidency.  

González, a former lawmaker, is affiliated with ex-President Rafael Correa (2007–2017), who continues to maintain political influence even while living in exile in Belgium. González, 45, is representing Correa’s Citizen Revolution movement.

Noboa, meanwhile, is the son of a five-time presidential aspirant who is also the country’s richest person. The younger Noboa’s appearance on the runoff ballot is a surprise, given that he defied poll expectations in the first round. He, 35, represents National Democratic Action, a movement he started.

The murder of another presidential candidate days before the August first round highlighted the fact that violence is a major political issue and the top concern for voters. The country’s murder rate shot up 245 percent between 2020 and 2022. 

Ahead of the October 15 second round, AS/COA Online looks at polling.