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Poll Tracker: Brazil's 2018 Presidential Election 

October 28, 2018

Jair Bolsonaro came within 5 points of winning Brazil’s first-round presidential election. Instead, he faces Fernando Haddad for an Oct. 28 runoff. Get the latest poll numbers in our tracker for #eleições2018.

Fernando Haddad has his work cut out for him. The leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate earned 29 percent of the vote in the October 7 election, putting him 17 points behind far-right Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party (PSL). The two will face each other in a runoff on October 28. With more than a dozen candidates competing in the first round, the question is whether Haddad, a stand-in for jailed ex-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will be able to capture enough of the losing candidates' votes to win in the second round.

AS/COA Online is tracking the polls, adding new results as they come in before the runoff. Scroll down to see how the candidates tracked ahead of the first round.



Note: This tracker was initially published on August 23, 2018. It has been updated as new polls become available.

 

 

Review our past coverage of polls for the October 7 first-round vote:

Nearly 147 million Brazilians will cast votes for president on October 7, but the candidate that was topping the polls won't be in the race. In polls, former two-term President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva commanded double-digit leads over the other dozen candidates, but on September 1, the Supreme Electoral Court decided his 12-year prison sentence, which began in April, disqualifies him from running.

Lula's running mate and former São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad is now the Workers' Party (PT) candidate. So far polls show Haddad has to make up ground if he wants to compete with frontrunner, former general Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party (PSL). Trying to catch up with the hard-right candidate are three other politicians considered to represent the establishment: former São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB), three-time candidate Ciro Gomes on the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) ticket, and four-term Senator Alvaro Dias of We Can (PODE). Competing with them for third place in the polls is Marina Silva of the Sustainability Network (REDE), formerly Lula’s environmental minister until 2008.

In the end, these candidates’ challenge is not just getting a piece of the Lula voting bloc for themselves, but convincing a quarter of the electorate that is still either undecided or expected to cast a blank or null vote. As we get closer to election day, AS/COA Online tracks four of Brazil’s main pollsters on how the electoral scenarios could play out.