Who Will Mexico's Ruling Party Tap as Its Candidate?
Who Will Mexico's Ruling Party Tap as Its Candidate?
With AMLO, the Teflon president, at the helm, Morena’s candidate will be hard to beat in the 2024 vote, AS/COA's Carin Zissis told Latin America Advisor.
Q: Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum resigned on June 16 to launch her campaign for Mexico’s presidency. The mayor is a member of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party, which has said it would select its nominee for president by early September. On June 12, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard also resigned to seek the nomination. How is Mexico’s presidential race shaping up, and who has the best chance of becoming Morena’s candidate? Who will represent the opposition, and what issues will drive the election?
A: Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online:
López Obrador and his party, Morena, insist there will be no dedazo, a long-held Mexican practice whereby the president picks his successor. Still, Sheinbaum is seen as AMLO’s favorite, and observers use her catchphrase, #EsClaudia (‘It’s Claudia’), like a fait accompli. Then again, Ebrard gained momentum when Morena’s coalition backed his proposal that rivals exit their posts this month to compete for the party’s candidacy. With a five-poll process to pick the candidate and no public debates, Morena hopes to project a unified front, even if rumors of infighting abound and this unprecedented selection process faces tests. And while AMLO, buoyed by popular social programs, continues to command high approval, disapproval runs higher for his government’s handling of top issues such as crime, corruption and the economy. The problem for the opposition is that most voters don’t think it can do any better. Morena has much higher favorable ratings than any of the three parties in the opposition Va Por México alliance, which, beset with its own infighting woes, will announce its selection process by the end of June. Head-to-head polling gives both Sheinbaum and Ebrard double-digit leads over the alliance’s top names. Of course, the election is a year away. Va Por México could get a boost with the backing of Mexico’s third political force, Movimiento Ciudadano (though its party leader compared the alliance to a sinking ship). The opposition could unveil a surprising name. But with AMLO, the Teflon president, at the helm, the Morena candidate announced in September has a strong chance of winning nine months later.
