Three Things to Know About Bolivia's 2025 First-Round Election Results

Paz, of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), took the top spot in the first round with 1.6 million votes out of the near 6.5 million cast, despite the fact that he polled at under 10 percent. Though his win came as surprise, his name is not unfamiliar. The son of President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993), Paz was born in Spain in 1967 when his family was living in exile during Bolivia’s military dictatorship. After attending universities in the United States and working at the World Trade Organization, he won a seat in 2002 in the Chamber of Deputies to represent Tarija, a southern department rich in oil and gas production and home to Bolivia’s wine country. He served as the city of Tarija’s mayor (2015–2020) before winning a Senate seat.

Paz, like his runoff opponent Quiroga, ran with a focus on addressing Bolivia’s economic crisis. He played up themes of renewal and reconciliation in his campaigning, along with a slogan of “capitalism for all.” His policy proposals include shifting from MAS’ state-centered strategy to one that would see splitting public funding 50-50 between the federal government and regional governments. He’s also rejected an IMF bailout and pledged a shift toward working with the private sector, along with increasing access to credit for lower-income Bolivians, lifting import restrictions, and reforming the justice systems. 

Paz’s campaign was buoyed by his running mate, Edman Lara, a former police officer and political outsider who leveraged social media and highlighted the campaign’s anti-corruption stances. Analysts have spotlighted his on-the-ground campaign game, spearheaded by Lara, as a reason for his success. Paz won key departments in Bolivia’s highlands, in the west of the country and home to major cities like La Paz and Cochabamba. These areas were MAS strongholds and polls predicted they’d go for leftist Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez, signaling that Paz may have captured votes from disillusioned MAS supporters. 

Paz could get a boost in the runoff, thanks to the endorsement of third-place finisher and businessman Samuel Doria Medina, who captured 20 percent of the vote and led polls for much of the campaign. 

The political party that held the Bolivian presidency and supermajorities in Congress for much of the last two decades will barely be represented in the next government. MAS’ electoral defeat, which saw the party’s candidate Eduardo del Castillo finish sixth with 3.2 percent of the vote, followed infighting between Morales and Arce, which split the once-mighty party into warring factions. 

After he was disqualified, Morales refused to endorse a candidate and encouraged his supporters to nullify their ballots. Some 20 percent of the electorate, or 1.2 million voters, did so—a move Morales qualified as a “victory.”  Other Evo supporters backed Rodríguez, once considered Morales’ political heir.  At 33 percent, null votes ran highest in the department of Cochabamba, where Morales’ home region of Chapare is located.

The party’s electoral collapse was dramatic. In 2020, it won 68 percent of the vote in the La Paz department. In 2025, it won just over 4 percent. Of the six departments the MAS won in 2020, Paz won five: Chuquisaca, Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro, and Potosí. The sixth, Pando, was won by Quiroga.

Congressional results are still being tabulated but, current predictions show a fragmented body. At least six parties will be represented in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies—both of which derive most of their seat allocation from the presidential vote.

In the 36-member Senate, Paz’s PDC will have at least 13 senators. Quiroga’s Freedom party is projected to have 11 and Doria Medina’s Unity party will have six.

There will be one senator from the Autonomy for Bolivia party, led by Manfred Reyes Villa, a law-and-order focused candidate who finished in fifth but performed well in Cochabamba. Five seats are still to be doled out, though they are expected to go to the aforementioned opposition parties rather than the MAS. 

The proportions of those blocs are expected to be similar in the Chamber of Deputies. There, the PDC will control about one-third of the body, or 45 out of 130 seats. Freedom party will have 37 and Unity will have 28. Autonomy for Bolivia will possess 6, one more than Rodríguez’s Popular Alliance. The MAS, which has 75 seats in the current legislative period, will be left with one seat. Eight seats are still to be determined.

No party will have a majority in either body. Party leaders may enter talks for coalitions.