On November 8, 2016, an estimated 13.1 million U.S. Hispanics will cast ballots for president—just over one in 10 of all voters. The Republican Party, if it wants its nominee to have a shot at winning the general election, must get close to half of those votes, per polling firm Latino Decisions. In the last six elections, 40 percent has been considered the “Latino threshold,” i.e. the number above which a Republican candidate must garner to win. Only one did so: George W. Bush in 2004. But pollsters say that in 2004 Latinos only represented 7 percent of the electorate. With a higher percentage of Latinos voting comes a higher threshold. In the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia—which together represent 75 of 538 Electoral College votes—the threshold is 44, 47, 45, 43, and 46 percent, respectively.
But no Republican candidate is anywhere close to that figure right now among potential Hispanic voters, per a recent GfK poll for the Associated Press. Even its two candidates with the most support among Hispanics, Floridians Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, are viewed more unfavorably than favorably within the voting bloc.
Our chart below takes a closer look at how candidates poll with Hispanics, right in time for the next debate by leading Republican candidates at 9 p.m. ET on November 10 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.