Poll Tracker: Bolivia's 2025 Presidential Runoff

For the first time in Bolivian history, there will be a presidential runoff. The option of a second round, which was introduced in the 2009 Constitution, has never been used, in large part because of the electoral dominance of the leftist Movement for Socialism (MAS) party.

But that’s about to change. Both candidates who made the October 19 runoff are running on platforms opposed to the MAS’ two decades in power. That includes Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party, who defied the expectations of polls, which captured his support below 10 percent, to win the first round with 32 percent of the vote share. Analysts believe polls undercounted voters disenchanted with the MAS and rural voters, who swung for Paz. The senator and former mayor is the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993).

His opponent in the runoff is Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who served as vice president before becoming president from 2001 to 2002. He has since sought the presidency four times. While polling shows him with an advantage, the first round served as a reminder that polling may detect which way the wind is blowing but does not forecast the weather.

What does voter intention look like for the second round? Which candidate do voters think is better equipped to solve problems like fuel and dollar shortages, or economic woes? AS/COA Online looks at available polls.