2025 Elections in Latin America and Canada: A Preview

• Election date: February 9. A presidential runoff takes place April 13 if needed.
• On the ballot: President, vice president, and all 151 members of the National Assembly.
• Election details:
  • In order to be elected in the first round, a presidential candidate must receive over 50 percent of the vote or 40 percent with an advantage of at least 10 percentage points over the second-placed candidate.  
  • From 2025 onward, Ecuador’s National Assembly will have 151 members, up from its current 137. The National Assembly is composed of three types of representatives: 130 members representing provinces, 15 members elected on a national basis, and six members elected by Ecuadorans residing outside of the country. Provincial and national seats are allocated through a proportional representation system, while seats representing emigrant voters are distributed using a different formula. 
• About voting: Voting is obligatory for all Ecuadoran citizens between the ages of 18 and 64, but optional for 16 to 17-year-olds, those 65 and older, and active police officers and military personnel. Ecuadorans living abroad also have the option of voting at their nearest consulate. 

February’s vote comes just a year and a half after Ecuadorans were called to vote in snap elections in 2023. In May of that year, then-President Guillermo Lasso (2021–2023), who was facing impeachment proceedings, invoked the muerte cruzada (“crossed death”) to dissolve the National Assembly, thereby triggering special elections for both the presidency and the legislature. Daniel Noboa, heir to a banana empire, narrowly defeated former Assemblywoman Luisa González, who was backed by former president Rafael Correa, in a runoff vote to serve the remainder of the presidential term. 

Throughout his short term, President Noboa (2023–present) has had to contend with Ecuador’s deteriorating security situation, severe droughts that have led to frequent and prolonged cuts in the country’s hydro-powered electricity supply, and an ongoing feud with Vice President Veronica Abad. In response to regular riots in the country’s prisons and street violence, Noboa declared in January 2024 that the state was in an “internal armed conflict” against organized crime and ordered increased military presence in prisons and across the country. Though many of the measures were ratified in an April referendum, growing concerns about human rights abuses have sparked protests. 

There are 16 presidential candidates, but polling indicates that Noboa and González will again be the two vying for the top job. Together, they concentrate around 50 to 60 percent of voter intention. No other candidate is capturing over 3 percent intention​​, but the share of undecided voters is just over a third according to polls by Comunicaliza and Cedatos. 

• Election date: August 17. A presidential runoff may be held October 19.
• On the ballot: President, vice president, all 130 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and all 36 members of the Chamber of Senators
• Election details:
  • To win outright in the first round, a presidential candidate will need to earn at least 50 percent plus one vote or 40 percent of the vote with an advantage of at least 10 percentage points over the second-placed candidate.
  • Seats in the Chamber of Senators are allocated through a proportional representation system. In the Chamber of Deputies, half of the members are elected directly by simple majority. The other half are allocated through a proportional representation system based on the votes received by their respective parties.
• About voting: Voting is obligatory for all citizens over 18 in Bolivia with non-participation resulting in a fine and a 90-day ban on interactions with government services. Bolivians residing outside of the country can vote in the presidential election at a Bolivian embassy or consulate. 

Bolivia is entering an election year in the midst of an economic crisis marked by persistent shortages of food and fuel, record inflation, and low foreign exchange reserves. Citizens expressed their frustrations in a series of protests and road blocks in the second half of 2024. Incumbent President Luis Arce (2020–present), who has a 37 percent approval rating according to a November poll, ​​has not yet confirmed whether he will run for reelection. Campaigns officially begin in April.

On top of these economic challenges, Arce faces political headwinds within his own party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS). For most of his term, Arce has been engaged in a leadership contest with his presidential predecessor and former party head Evo Morales (2006–2019) that has split the MAS into two factions. Morales has declared his intention to run for president despite Bolivia's electoral court ruling against his candidacy given that he already served two full presidential terms, the maximum allowed by the Constitution. Significant political flashpoints in 2024 included a failed military coup in June—followed by accusations that Arce himself was behind it—and Morales alleging that the Arce administration tried to assassinate him in an October attack. 

In December, it was reported that four opposition politicians, among them ex-Presidents Jorge Quiroga (2001–2002) and Carlos Mesa (2003–2005), had agreed to unite behind a single candidate against MAS. It has not yet been confirmed who the unity candidate will be. Outside of this alliance, a few polls suggest that Cochabamba Mayor Manfred Reyes Villa is among the leading candidates. 

• Election date: October 20, though the election will occur sooner if a snap election is called.
• On the ballot: All 343 seats in the House of Commons.
• Election details: Members of Parliament are elected by plurality in each of Canada’s electoral districts. The leader of the party, or coalition of parties, with a majority of seats becomes prime minister. This is the first election with an expanded 343-member Parliament.
• About voting: Voting is not compulsory in Canada. Canadians abroad can vote by mail.

After almost a decade under Justin Trudeau, Canada will get a new prime minister in 2025. The Liberal Party leader announced on January 6 that he would step down from his post, after facing low popularity and criticism from his own party over how he handled tariff threats made by Trump. Only 33 percent of Canadians approve of Trudeau and they express general frustration with the state of the economy per a September IPSOS poll. Trudeau has initiated a process for his party to select a new head, who then becomes the prime minister as the Liberal Party retains control of Parliament. In the last federal election in 2021, Trudeau’s party captured 160 of the 338 seats, the smallest share of overall electoral support for a prime minister in Canadian history. 

The Conservative Party will look to expand its 120 seats under leader Pierre Poilievre, who has called Trudeau’s policies "basically authoritarian socialism.” Poilievre is seeking to drum up support with a platform that includes shrinking the state, cracking down on crime, advancing fossil fuels, and building more homes. He has called for the election to be held sooner than its planned October date.

Two other parties hold double-digit seats in the House of Commons: the Bloc Quebecois, which advocates for the sovereignty of Quebec, and the New Democratic Party, which sits to the left of the Liberals. Polls predict a victory for the Conservatives with the possibility that Bloc Quebecois or the New Democratic Party receives the second-most votes, an unprecedented result in modern Canadian history. 

• Election date: October 26. Additionally, five provinces will hold elections for their regional legislative bodies from May to July. The PASO, or Open, Simultaneous, and Obligatory Primaries, are scheduled for August 3.
• On the ballot: 127 of 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of 72 Senate seats. Additionally, 13 provinces will hold elections for local deputies and municipal posts.
• Election details:
  • For the Senate, only eight of the 24 provinces will vote. The party that receives the most votes in each receives two seats and the second most popular party obtains one seat.
  • In the Chamber of Deputies, half of each province’s deputies are up for grabs, with seats allocated proportionally by party.
• About voting: Voting is compulsory for citizens between 18 and 70 and optional for those 16, 17, and above 70. Argentines abroad can vote at embassies or consulates, though not in the PASO primary.

Two years after the election of Javier Milei, Argentines will vote in midterm elections where the president will attempt to expand his support in Congress. Though Milei’s approval rating sits above 50 percent in most polls, his party holds just seven of 72 Senate seats and 38 of 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, which has roiled some aspects of his agenda. 

This will mark the first election where Milei’s political party, Liberty Advances, will compete as a national party, as opposed to in 2023 when it was a coalition. Meanwhile, Argentina’s opposition Peronist Judicialist party is being led by newly chosen party president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who served as president of Argentina from 2007 to 2015 and as vice president from 2019 to 2023. Fernández de Kirchner has expressed a vision of “straightening out and organizing” the Peronists around opposition to Milei and resolving internal tensions among elected officials in her party.

The 2025 election will see the debut of a new electoral format: the single paper ballot. Voters will be able to see all the posts and candidates up for consideration on one sheet of paper at their poll. The 2025 election may also see the end of the PASO which was introduced in 2009. On the day of the PASO, coalitions hold concurrent primaries to select candidates and secure enough of the overall vote to earn a place on the ballot. Figures, including Milei, have criticized the cost and complexity of the PASO and sought to end it federally. So far, several provinces have decided to get rid of the PASO for their 2025 provincial and municipal elections.

• Election date: November 30.
• On the ballot: President, three vice presidents, and all 128 members of Congress as well as 298 mayors, 298 vice mayors, and over 2,000 town councilors.
• Election details:
  • The presidential contest is a single round election in which the candidate with the most votes wins.
  • Seats in Honduras’ unicameral National Congress are allocated through a proportional representation system by department.
  • Mayors and vice mayors are elected by simple majority in each municipality.
• About voting: Voting in Honduras is obligatory from the age of 18, but there is no punishment for not voting. 

In 2021, Xiomara Castro was elected to the presidency, replacing former President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was extradited to the United States in April 2022 where he was eventually sentenced to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking charges. President Castro (2022–present) is a former first lady whose husband (and current political adviser), Manuel Zelaya, was ousted in a 2009 coup. 

The constitution prevents Castro from running for reelection, but the president’s Freedom and Refoundation (Libre) Party and inner circle has been tainted by a recent scandal. In September, footage emerged implicating Castro’s brother-in-law and nephew in an apparent attempt to solicit financing from drug traffickers for a previous presidential campaign. Both men subsequently stepped down from their respective roles as a congress member and defense minister. The current defense minister, Rixi Moncada, will likely have Castro’s support for her announced presidential run. Moncada is a lawyer and former finance minister (2022–2024).

The two main opposition parties are the Liberal Party and the National Party. Among the National Party’s primary candidates is the wife of ex-President Hernandez, Ana Rosalinda Carias. Political parties are scheduled to hold primaries on March 9 to determine their candidates. 

• Election date: November 16. A December 14 presidential second round may be held. 
• On the ballot: President, all 155 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 23 of the 50 senators.
• Election details:
  • To win in the first round, a presidential candidate needs a majority of votes. Otherwise, the top two candidates advance to the second round where plurality wins.
  • All 155 deputies are elected from 28 multi-member districts via proportional representation.
  • Seven of Chile’s 16 Senate multi-member districts will elect representatives. 
• About voting: Voting in Chile is compulsory for Chileans over ​18 years old. It is voluntary for citizens abroad, who can vote at consulates and embassies.

Sitting President Gabriel Boric cannot constitutionally run for reelection in the November contest. Boric, a former student protester and congressman, won the presidency in 2021 after a period of social demonstration where Chileans railed against the cost of living, inequality, and privatization. In the four years since, Boric, a vocal member of Latin America’s left, has seen approval levels around 30 percent amid two unsuccessful constitutional rewrite processes and low economic growth. 

Will Chileans turn the other way? Opposition parties, which had strong performances in the 2024 municipal elections, are hoping to capitalize the government’s 50 percent disapproval rating, per DataInfluye’s December poll. Currently leading Cadem’s December poll with 26 percent of voter intention is the opposition’s Evelyn Matthei, the mayor of Provincia and a former senator and minister of labor. With 12 percent, José Antonio Kast, a former deputy who was the runner-up second in the 2021 contest, is polling in second. Michelle Bachelet, who served as president from 2006 to 2010 and 2014 to 2018, polls third, the highest of any candidate on the left. None of these candidates has explicitly announced their intention to run.