Eric Farnsworth, vice president of AS/COA, spoke to Anand Naido on CGTN America's "The Heat" about military in Latin American governments.

"The military does have a credibility that the elected leaders really don’t have," Farnsworth said. "The elected leaders have not been able to deliver on the expectations that many of their people have in terms of economic growth, in terms of quality of life, in terms of security and safety in the streets."

Farnsworth said that when uniformed officials stand behind presidents of any Latin American country, it could bring to mind the region's history from the 1960s and 1970s.  "It does seem that some of those military officials were brought in by the leaders themselves to show that the leaders remain in control of their own governments, of their own streets," he said. "It does not, in my view, indicate a desire or even necessarily a willingness of some of these militaries to actually step in and take power."

Speakers:

• Roberta Jacobson, Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico
• Raul Jungmann, former Brazilian Defense & Public Security Minister
• Juan Carlos Pinzón, President, ProBogotá; former Colombian Defense Minister
• Frank Mora, Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University
• Brian Winter, Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly; Vice President of Policy, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (moderator)

Are military institutions in Latin America searching for power in the region again, thereby putting democracy at risk? Or is the military filling a void and left by declining confidence in political institutions? Americas Quarterly hosted a discussion with experts on the reemergence of the military in the political spotlight. When discussing recent news from El Salvador, Roberta Jacobson talked about what presidents who communicate directly with the population through Twitter believe they can do. Bukele’s high approval, said Frank Mora, “sends a message to other political entrepreneurs that ‘I can get away with this.’”

Juan Carlos Pinzón said he sees the military as responding to emergencies that politicians have not been able to address in the short term rather than seeking power. For Raul Jungman, the military has been redefining its role and strategy in each country in Latin America since the Cold War. "Democratization in the region brought new roles to the military such as security, the fight against drug trafficking, and the environment," he explained. But having a bigger role outside the arena of security falls outside the sector's expertise, Jungman explained, adding: "And that, I'm not sure, is good for democracy."

Speakers:

• James Story, Chargé d'Affaires, Venezuela Affairs Unit, U.S. Embassy in Bogotá, Colombia
• Michael Grant, Assistant Deputy Minister for the Americas, Department of Global Affairs of Canada
• Beatriz Borges, Executive Director, The Justice and Peace Center (CEPAZ)
• Jose E. Gonzales, Managing Partner, GCG Advisors
• Francisco Monaldi, Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy and Director of the Latin America Initiative, Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University 
• Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, AS/COA Washington
• Maria Lourdes Gallo, Vice President, AS/COA Miami
• Guillermo Zubillaga, Senior Director for Public Policy and Head of the Venezuela Working Group, AS/COA

The events of January 2020 were “watershed” moments for diplomat James Story of the U.S. State Department and ones that revealed the “desperation” of the Maduro regime. “There are a lot of smart people in this room. Not one of you knew that Evo Morales was gonna leave when he did. Not one of you thought that Milošević was done in Serbia. And not one of you knew that the Berlin Wall was gonna fall the week before it did. And those things all transpired,” said Story at an AS/COA event in Miami, adding that he’s ultimately optimistic change can come in Venezuela due to the cracks he sees in the chavista power structure. Canadian Ambassador Michael Grant was more circumspect, saying he believes democracy won’t return to the country in “a big bang” but rather through hard-fought incremental change, political leadership from within Venezuela, and redoubled international cooperation efforts. “Democracy was stolen from Venezuela. Human rights were stolen from Venezuela. Our common objective is to get that back. Venezuelans deserve that,” Grant said. A panel of experts highlighted the importance of putting Venezuela more squarely on the UN’s agenda, the state of Venezuela’s oil production and the investment needed to rebuild the sector, and the toll of hyperinflation on not just the economy but the country’s social fabric.

Speakers:

• Alejandro Werner, Director, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 
• John Authers, Senior Editor for Markets, Bloomberg News @johnauthers (interviewer)

Is Latin America suffering from secular stagnation? In this year's Latin America's 2020 Economic Outlook event with IMF's Alejandro Werner and Bloomberg's John Authers, the speakers spoke on Latin America's growth hurdles and reflected on the 2019 numbers. They also covered the opportunities that might arise after a period of trade wars, new governments, and uncertainty on trade agreements such as UMSCA. The IMF expects Latin America's growth in 2020 to be at 0.1 percent and Werner explains the region deals with a combination of "secular and cyclical issues."

Authers also asked Werner about debt, foreign investment, and the cases of Argentina and Chile. Werner answered audience questions on the largest economies in the region. When it comes to Brazil, he said the outcome of the 2019 pension reform has been good but the effect of the country's recent fiscal policies on growth were not seen in 2019. "A little bit of investment and consumption would push the Brazilian economy to 2 percent growth," Werner explained. For Mexico, investors' attitude has been to wait and see, Werner says. The approval of USMCA has lifted a significant amount of uncertainty for the country, but people are waiting on the direction of AMLO's so-called Fourth Transformation. "[If I'm an investor] I wait and see where this transformation goes."