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When Recession Is Not Mexico’s Biggest Problem

By Sergio A. Luna

The trade war unleashed by the U.S. requires more than monetary or fiscal responses from the Sheinbaum administration.

MEXICO CITY—The “R” word is becoming increasingly popular in Mexico. On the same day that the U.S. reported a surprising quarterly GDP contraction in the first trimester of the year, data released by Mexico’s statistics institute, INEGI, showed an unexpected 0.2% quarterly economic expansion for the same period. Since this initial and seasonally adjusted reading followed a 0.6% decline in economic output in the last quarter of 2024, it appears Mexico barely escaped the curse of a so-called “technical recession” (i.e., two consecutive quarters posting negative changes). This...

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