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Poll Update: Bolivia's Special Presidential Elections

October 07, 2020

As Bolivians head to the polls on October 18, what's the top issue in their minds? The economy and jobs—which are twice as important as the health crisis, per voters. Get more details in our poll update.
To win Bolivia's presidential vote outright on October 18, a candidate must receive either 50% of the vote, or 40% with a 10-point margin over the next candidate. If no one achieves that, a runoff will take place November 29. A look at the latest poll:

Bolivians are preparing to vote on October 18 in special general elections. It will be almost a year since the debacle that was the October 20, 2019 elections, which ended in vote-rigging allegations, violent demonstrations, the exit of longstanding President Evo Morales of the Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party, and the ascension of opposition Senator Jeanine Añez, who’s now served as interim president for almost a year. 

After initially fielding a candidacy to fill the head-of-state role permanently, Añez dropped out of the presidential race on September 17, saying she was doing so because she didn’t want to fracture the anti-MAS vote and thereby allow the MAS presidential candidate, Luis Arce, a win.

But she’s yet to endorse a candidate, and her supporters appear to be splitting between centrist former President Carlos Mesa or toward right-wing Catholic civic leader Luis Fernando Camacho. Añez says she intends to support the candidate who can beat Arce, arguably Mesa, but she’s closer to Camacho ideologically. To wit, Añez was polling at 13.3 percent support in CELAG’s July poll, and in the firm’s first post-Añez poll, Mesa saw his support go up by 7.2 points (26.8 to 34.0 percent), and Camacho by 6.1 points (9.1 to 15.2 percent). That said, on October 2, Añez’s former running mate endorsed Mesa, as he did during the 2019 election.

AS/COA Online digs into the numbers of CELAG’s October poll.