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Cuba’s Crisis: Four Near-Term Scenarios

By Brian Fonseca, Liany Diaz Gonzalez

Havana’s calculations and Washington’s aggressive posture will shape the island’s next chapter, two experts write.

For decades, Miami stood largely alone in its fixation on Cuba. That is no longer the case. Today, Cuba has reemerged as a national security priority in Washington.  Over the past several months, the Trump administration has stepped up pressure on Cuba, with the most assertive policy of any in recent memory. It has indicted senior Cuban officials; placed new sanctions on regime leaders, the state oil company, and military-linked entities; increased intelligence and military activity in the Caribbean; and sent General Francis Donovan, head of U.S....

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