Carin Zissis Spoke with Trouw about Mexico-Cuba Oil Ties Under U.S. Pressure
Carin Zissis Spoke with Trouw about Mexico-Cuba Oil Ties Under U.S. Pressure
President Sheinbaum "is in a very difficult position," especially as a Cuban crisis could spark a refugee surge in Mexico, said the AS/COA vice president.
In Cuba, the president rarely gives extensive press conferences, but last Thursday, Miguel Díaz-Canel appeared before the cameras of the tightly controlled state media to address his people regarding the deepening, multi-faceted economic crisis threatening to sink the island nation. "It is clear to us that there are concerns among the population about everything that has happened," Díaz-Canel said.
Cuba has never recovered from the blow it dealt with during the COVID-19 pandemic, when much of its tourism revenue vanished. And since January 3, when American forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the economic malaise has become a direct threat to the communist regime in Havana.
Venezuela was Cuba’s most important ally, but Maduro’s successor, Delcy Rodríguez, has opted for cooperation with Donald Trump’s White House under American pressure and has turned off the oil tap to Cuba. Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, are attempting to "suffocate" the island—in the words of Díaz-Canel—in the hope that the communist regime will collapse after nearly seventy years. [...]
It is no surprise that the Sheinbaum administration is trying to keep its oil relationship with Cuba as low-profile as possible, as American pressure on Mexico is also immense. Shortly after the fall of Maduro, Trump announced that countries trading oil with Cuba would face import tariffs. In response, Pemex canceled a commercial shipment of oil to Cuba but initially continued sending oil under the guise of "humanitarian aid," which the U.S. tacitly permitted.[...]
"Sheinbaum is in a very difficult position. I sometimes imagine her as someone standing on one foot, trying to balance something on her hip," says Carin Zissis of Americas Society/Council of the Americas. "She is a leftist president, and Mexico and Cuba have a long history of mutual cooperation."
Zissis believes, however, that the oil issue is about more than just political and historical brotherhood. “If the crisis in Cuba worsens, it potentially creates a new surge of Cuban refugees for Mexico, exactly at a time when the United States has closed its borders with Mexico to refugees.” The tensions also come at a difficult moment for Mexico, just months before the renegotiations of the USMCA (the Mexican-Canadian-American free trade agreement). For Mexico, this treaty is vital; over 80 percent of its exports go to the United States. And trade tariffs are Trump’s favorite leverage. “The pressure will only increase,” says Zissis. “The shadow of Venezuela is hanging over Mexico.”
This article excerpt has been translated from Dutch to English.
