Brian Winter on NPR about Brazil's Presidential Election and What it Means for the U.S.
Brian Winter on NPR about Brazil's Presidential Election and What it Means for the U.S.
A potential swing to the right in Brazil could be "the big prize for President Trump," said AQ's editor in-chief to the radio station.
In an interview with NPR’s Carrie Khan, Brian Winter, editor in-chief of Americas Quarterly and vice president of Policy at AS/COA, discussed Brazil’s political landscape as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro face off in the presidential race, as well as why the election matters to Washington.
Winter noted that Brazil is the largest country in Latin America and its election comes amid a regional trend toward right-leaning governments. “Of the last 16 elections in the region, 13 have been won by right or center-right candidates,” he said. Winter said that the White House views Latin America as central to issues such as irregular migration and drug trafficking, while also seeking relationships with ideologically aligned leaders. In that context, a Bolsonaro victory and a shift toward a right-leaning government in Brazil could represent “the big prize for President Trump.”
Still, the expert said Trump has reason to be cautious about openly endorsing a candidate in Brazil. U.S. tariffs imposed on the country in 2025 “ended up damaging the U.S. economy, but they also helped President Lula and probably politically damaged the Bolsonaro family,” he said. Winter also pointed to Brazil’s strategic importance beyond politics. The country holds the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves, he said, prompting some U.S. officials to favor “a more institutional relationship rather than trying to get very involved in this election.”
A Bolsonaro government could align more closely with Washington on security, Winter added, but a major economic pivot away from China would be unlikely. China has been Brazil’s top trading partner for years and remains a crucial market for its exports. “Leaders have been hesitant to choose between Washington and Beijing, no matter their ideological orientation,” noted the editor in-chief. Regardless of the outcome, Winter said Brazil will remain an influential global actor due to its population size and natural resources.
