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Brazil's Challenge: Flattening Not One Curve, But Three

By Luciano Sobral

As it fights the virus, Brazil needs to keep borrowing costs low and control its debt trajectory.

On March 13, before Brazil had confirmed any deaths from Covid-19, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes told the country’s most popular magazine that “with 5 billion reais (around $1 billion) we will annihilate the coronavirus.”

One month and 1,000 confirmed deaths later, it’s safe to say that the number will be at least 100 times greater than Guedes’ initial projection, even as the overall damage done to South America’s largest economy as a result of the outbreak remains uncertain.

Brazil’s no-nonsense treasury secretary, Mansueto Almeida, recently said that the government’s...

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