Colombia's 2022 Elections Outlook

Market experts warned that fiscal reform and resilient institutions are key to ensuring stability and growth.


  • Alberto Bernal, Chief EM and Global Strategist, XP Investments
  • Silvana Amaya, Senior Analyst, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks
  • Renzo Merino, VP and Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
  • Sergio Guzmán, Director and Co-Founder, Colombia Risk Analysis (moderator)
  • Guillermo Zubillaga, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA (introduction)

In a discussion with market experts, panelists dove into their projections on the implications of the result of Colombia’s 2022 legislative and presidential elections. Silvana Amaya of Control Risks described this year’s elections as being a response to recent social unrest and the effects of the pandemic, among other major events. Additionally, Amaya stressed the importance of having a strong and cohesive Congress to ensure a proper system of checks and balances. On controlling risk, Amaya cited security as a primary concern, highlighting the possibility of cyberattacks and the need for resilient institutions to withstand these threats.

XP Investments’ Alberto Bernal added that there was an additional component of uncertainty and skepticism generated by the Covid-19 pandemic that contributed to the pessimism and overall dynamic of this year’s election. Bernal projected that Colombia’s growth would be 6.5 percent in 2022, compared to 10.7 percent in 2021, which would signal a major outperformance of market projections. Renzo Merino from Moody’s discussed Colombia’s fiscal reforms and cited the Moody’s credit rating change for Colombia from negative to stable last October. Merino warned that future reforms to Colombia’s fiscal policies could affect its credit ratings in the future, and suggested that, beyond fiscal reform, the country should look to attracting investments and focusing on pensions to improve the country’s overall economic outlook.