Speakers:

• Beatrice Rangel, Managing Director, AMLA Consulting Group
• Guillermo Zubillaga, Head, Venezuela Working Group, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (interviewer)

Venezuela is not a normal totalitarian regime, said Beatrice Rangel at an AS/COA Venezuela Working Group event in Miami, but a government sustained by international organized crime. Rangel, who served as chief of staff to former Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez, told AS/COA's Guillermo Zubillaga that the next steps must be for the Organization of the American States to declare Venezuela in violation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, and then have the UN Security Council take up the matter.

Panelistas

• Marianela Balbi, Executive Director, IPYS Venezuela
• Rafael Uzcátegui, General Manager, Provea
• Nathan Crooks, Venezuela Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News (moderator)

En un evento en Miami el 13 de julio, líderes de la sociedad civil hablaron de la crisis humanitaria en Venezuela, el aumento de la pobreza en el país y las barreras a la expresión y la comunicación. Marianela Balbi, quien explicó que el gobierno tienes datos sobre mortalidad materna e inflación que no hace públicos, dijo que cada vez más los venezolanos usan mensajes encriptados por temor a la censura.

Speakers:

• Luis Almagro, Secretary General, Organization of American States
• Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (interviewer)

• Patrick D. Duddy, Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela; Director, Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies, Duke University
• Hannah Dreier, Venezuela Correspondent, Associated Press
• Roger Noriega, Visiting Researcher, American Enterprise Institute
• Antonio Mora, Journalist and former Anchor, Al Jazeera America (moderator)

Americas Society/Council of the Americas and the American Enterprise Institute held a discussion with diplomats and experts on what's at stake when it comes to recovering and restoring democracy in Venezuela. Panelists spoke about oil, civil rights, and influences from other Latin American countries and the United States via traditional diplomacy and Twitter.

Speakers:

• Alejandro Grisanti, Economist and former Venezuela Analyst at Barclays
• Armando Briquet, Political Consultant and former Campaign Manager for Henrique Capriles' presidential bid
• Francisco Monaldi, Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Baker Institute, Rice University
• Luz Mely Reyes, Journalist and Founder of Efecto Cocuyo (moderator)

While other oil economies learned from the 1970s crisis, Venezuela didn't and faces an unparalleled economic crisis today that includes catastrophic inflation and a brutal drop in real wages. Economic recovery is possible but will be costly, though less so if groups such as the International Monetary Fund are allowed to step in. Politcally, the opposition has been able to unify and address issues with the other branches of power, said panelists, but democratic progress is slow and will take time.

This event is part of our Venezuela Working Group series.

Venezuela's bond payments of nearly $5 billion are due in October, but sinking oil prices aren't helping; analysts predict a default could well happen. Meanwhile, Venezuelans are facing inflation at 275 percent and consumer prices are expected to increase 152 percent in 2016. Greylock Capital's Jose Ferro, Moody's Jaime Reusche, and head of AS/COA's Venezuela Working Group Guillermo Zubillaga comment on the possibility of a future credit event. 

Learn more about Venezuela's economy:

• AS/COA Venezuela Working Group
• Latin America in Focus: Moody's Jaime Reusche on a Venezuelan Default
• The Main Idea: Venezuela on the Verge of Default
• Video: Will Venezuela Default?

AS/COA Explains is a video series exploring game-changing topics in the Americas. Watch other episodes.

Speakers:

• Diego Ferro, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Greylock Capital
• Jaime Reusche, Vice President and Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Services
• Martin Schubert, CEO, European InterAmerican Finance
• Katia Porzecanski, Emerging Markets, Americas, Bloomberg News (moderator)

Venezuela has shown a "surreal" willingness to pay, said Greylock's Diego Ferro, but it will run out of money and inevitably default. On the other hand, the country's medium-term forecast is not so bleak, given that oil prices are expected to rise, said Martin Schubert of European InterAmerican Finance. The experts compared Venezuela's situation to Argentina's past defaults, considered the implications of a regime change, and debated the risks of buying or selling bonds for Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

Learn about our Venezuela Working Group at as-coa.org/venezuela.

Speakers:

• Andrés Pastrana, Former President of Colombia 
• Jorge Quiroga, Former President of Bolivia 
• Moisés Naím, Distinguished Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Chief International Columnist for El Pais and La Repubblica
• Hector Schamis, Adjunct Professor, Center for Latin American Studies, Georgetown University; Columnist for El País
• Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (moderator)

The opposition won a supermajority in Venezuela's National Assembly on December 6, but the toughest stretch lies ahead due to the country's ailing economy and embattled democracy. Venezuela is "the black eye" of Latin America, said Georgetown's Hector Schamis at a COA panel. Now the opposition must pick a leader in Congress, as well as address the humanitarian crisis and a narco regime, according to former Colombian President Andrés Pastrana. 

(Video begins at 7:50)