Panelists:

• Patrick Gage, Director of Development, Scalabrini International Migration Network 
• Lara Setrakian, Founder, News Deeply 
• Christine Mendonça, CEO and Co-Founder, Humans on the Move

In a AS/COA conversation in New York about Venezuela's migration crisis, which the panelists agreed can now be called a "refugee crisis," experts discussed why the international community hasn't done more to respond to the situation. The panelists shared data and anedoctes on the current flow of migrants and agreed on what Lara Setrakian called "a higher level of solidarity in Latin America than in many regions."

Speakers:

• Colin Crowell, Vice President, Global Public Policy & Corporate Philanthropy, Twitter 
• Rodrigo Diamanti, Director, Un Mundo Sin Mordaza 
• Daniel Wilkinson, Managing Director for the Americas, Human Rights Watch 
• Raúl Stolk, Lawyer and Writer; Chairman, Caracas Chronicles (moderator)

Fake news is a problem, but the truth can spread just as quickly, Twitter's Colin Crowell said in a panel that started with a discussion on the importance of citizen journalists in Venezuela. Human Rights Watch's Daniel Wilkinson explained how Venezuelan citizens' active use of social media and videos is crucial to document human rights violations today. For Rodrigo Diamanti of Un Mundo sin Mordaza, the International Criminal Court's decision in February to open a preliminary investigation into human rights abuses by the Maduro government is "the best thing that has happened to Venezuela in the last five years." Diamanti also said that one of his greatest concerns is that the Maduro regime is moving toward cutting off the internet entirely in the country in the interest of self-preservation, and he urged the international community to move proactively to safeguard the internet before that could happen.

Panelistas:

• José Domingo Mujica, Coordinador Nacional, Red de Observación Electoral
• Juan Manuel Raffalli, Profesor UCAB, UMA & IESA
• Raúl Stolk, Chairman, Caracas Chronicles (moderador)

"Habrá un cambio político muy pronto en Venezuela. La gente no está dispuesta a perder a su país", dijo el abogado Juan Manuel Raffalli sobre la crisis agravada por las decisiones del gobierno de Nicolás Maduro. Durante un evento en Miami el 13 de julio, expertos discutieron las consecuencias de una nueva asamblea constituyente y el riesgo de una potencial reforma de la constitución venezolana.

Speakers:

• Beatrice Rangel, Managing Director, AMLA Consulting Group
• Guillermo Zubillaga, Head, Venezuela Working Group, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (interviewer)

Venezuela is not a normal totalitarian regime, said Beatrice Rangel at an AS/COA Venezuela Working Group event in Miami, but a government sustained by international organized crime. Rangel, who served as chief of staff to former Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez, told AS/COA's Guillermo Zubillaga that the next steps must be for the Organization of the American States to declare Venezuela in violation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, and then have the UN Security Council take up the matter.

Panelists:

• Diego Ferro, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Greylock Capital
• Siobhan Morden, Managing Director, Head of Latin America Fixed Income Strategy, Nomura Securities International
• Casey E. Reckman, Director, Emerging Markets Economics, Credit Suisse
• José Enrique Arrioja, Editor-at-Large, Latin America, Bloomberg (moderator)

Will the Venezuelan government and the state-owned oil firm PDVSA be able to make their April bond payments? Do they have the cash flow to avoid default in 2017? Is there a rational argument to making these billion-dollar payments as import levels plummet? Is political change a prerequisite to economic recovery? Panelists discussed these and other questions about the country's turbulent situation.

• Learn about our Venezuela Working Group.

Speakers:

• Luis Almagro, Secretary General, Organization of American States
• Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (interviewer)

• Patrick D. Duddy, Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela; Director, Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies, Duke University
• Hannah Dreier, Venezuela Correspondent, Associated Press
• Roger Noriega, Visiting Researcher, American Enterprise Institute
• Antonio Mora, Journalist and former Anchor, Al Jazeera America (moderator)

Americas Society/Council of the Americas and the American Enterprise Institute held a discussion with diplomats and experts on what's at stake when it comes to recovering and restoring democracy in Venezuela. Panelists spoke about oil, civil rights, and influences from other Latin American countries and the United States via traditional diplomacy and Twitter.

Venezuela's bond payments of nearly $5 billion are due in October, but sinking oil prices aren't helping; analysts predict a default could well happen. Meanwhile, Venezuelans are facing inflation at 275 percent and consumer prices are expected to increase 152 percent in 2016. Greylock Capital's Jose Ferro, Moody's Jaime Reusche, and head of AS/COA's Venezuela Working Group Guillermo Zubillaga comment on the possibility of a future credit event. 

Learn more about Venezuela's economy:

• AS/COA Venezuela Working Group
• Latin America in Focus: Moody's Jaime Reusche on a Venezuelan Default
• The Main Idea: Venezuela on the Verge of Default
• Video: Will Venezuela Default?

AS/COA Explains is a video series exploring game-changing topics in the Americas. Watch other episodes.

There's an 80 percent chance Venezuela will default on its bond payments in 2016, estimates Moody's. But Venezuela still has a lot of oil to cash in on. Does a regime change loom? Experts weighed in at an AS/COA panel.

• Watch the video of the full program.
• Listen to our podcast with Moody's Jaime Reusche.
• Learn about our Venezuela Working Group at as-coa.org/venezuela.

Speakers:

• Diego Ferro, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Greylock Capital
• Jaime Reusche, Vice President and Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Services
• Martin Schubert, CEO, European InterAmerican Finance
• Katia Porzecanski, Emerging Markets, Americas, Bloomberg News (moderator)

Venezuela has shown a "surreal" willingness to pay, said Greylock's Diego Ferro, but it will run out of money and inevitably default. On the other hand, the country's medium-term forecast is not so bleak, given that oil prices are expected to rise, said Martin Schubert of European InterAmerican Finance. The experts compared Venezuela's situation to Argentina's past defaults, considered the implications of a regime change, and debated the risks of buying or selling bonds for Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

Learn about our Venezuela Working Group at as-coa.org/venezuela.

Panelistas:

• Luis Vicente León, Presidente, Datanalisis
• Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez, International Finance Faculty de Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management y columnista para El Nacional
• Francisco Rodríguez, Director y Economista Senior Andino, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
• Andres Schipani, Corresponsal para los Andes, Financial Times (moderador)

El 6 de diciembre Venezuela tendrá elecciones para elegir diputados a la Asamblea Nacional y las encuestas muestran que la oposición ganará una mayoría legislativa. De acuerdo a Francisco Rodríguez la oposición ganaría dos tercios de los curules con solo 18 puntos de ventaja sobre el partido del gobierno. Sin embargo, las encuestas de Datanalisis y otras firmas calculan una ventaja de 25 a 30 puntos, notó Luis Vicente León. Aunque esto significaría un cambio profundo para los chavistas, igualmente será una batalla para la oposición, a quienes les falta definir una agenda, dijó Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez.

Infographic: Venezuelan Public Opinion ahead of December 6 Elections