Why Lula Is Struggling
By
Brian Winter
Brazil’s October election now looks like a coin-flip, writes AQ’s editor-in-chief.
RIO DE JANEIRO—As recently as six weeks ago, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seemed to be cruising to reelection. Unemployment was at record lows; the stock market at record highs; inflation had closed 2025 at its lowest level in seven years. Lula’s archrival, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was in prison—and had just chosen Flávio, widely seen as the least charismatic of his four sons, to be his preferred candidate in October’s vote. “We know it won’t be easy,” a Lula adviser told me, “but the wind is at our backs.” Today, there is nary a breeze. A Datafolha...
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