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Weekly Chart: Venezuelan Public Opinion ahead of December 6 Elections

November 11, 2015

Public opinion on Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro is in free fall, dropping 32 pts since Jan 2014.
Venezuela's MUD leads PSUV by +25% in polls—but a #6D landslide is not a given, says @luisvicenteleon.

On December 6, Venezuelan voters will decide whether chavistas will hold their grip on the National Assembly. Per the latest polls, the opposition Democratic Unity Table (MUD) coalition leads the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) by more than 25 percentage points. Polling firms Consultores 21, Datanalisis, Hinterlaces, More Consulting, and Venebarometro jointly released an omnibus report called “The New Trend Is Irreversible.” The results are in line with other polls released this year showing MUD with a similar lead.

But with a few weeks of campaigning left before Election Day, a MUD takeover of the Assembly is not a given, cautions Datanalisis head Luis Vicente León. The election outcome “could go in either direction,” he told local media on November 10, depending on late changes to electoral regulations or other efforts made by the Maduro government.

Still, the polls indicate poor marks for the ruling party. More than three-quarters of Venezuelans—including one-fifth of chavistas—give President Nicolás Maduro’s management of the country a negative grade, with two-fifths qualifying it as “very bad,” per Datanalisis. The firm also found that the greatest share of independent voters (29.8 percent) lean toward independent candidates, 22.0 percent toward MUD candidates, and 1.6 percent to PSUV ones.