LatAm in Focus: Navigating Trump’s Tariff Tests—The Mexico Edition

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has won accolades for her artful handling of relations with the Trump administration. That acumen was on display when, at the end of July, her government negotiated a 90-day delay on a 30 percent tariff threat. Add to that the fact that the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA)keeps a large portion of Mexican exports destined for its northern neighbor tariff-free, and the country appears to be weathering U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff storm well—at least compared with Latin American counterparts like Brazil, which is facing up to a 50 percent tariff rate. 

Then again, for Mexico, the stakes are even higher, given that it is Washington’s top trade partner and more than 80 percent of its exports go to the United States. And, aside from the looming end of the 90-day pause, another deadline is approaching: the 2026 USMCA review. On September 17, the United States and Mexico launched public consultations for the review, essentially kicking off a process that many observers fret could end up being a full renegotiation of the deal implemented late in the first Trump administration. 

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“Unfortunately, a lot of the oxygen has been taken out of the room in terms of preparing for the USMCA review because of the tariff hurricane that we're undergoing right now,” says Kenneth Smith Ramos, partner at Agon and Mexico’s former chief USMCA negotiator. Smith Ramos, who is also the co-chair of the Coalition for North American Trade, joined Latin America in Focus host Carin Zissis for the first of a two-part episode exploring how the Trump administration’s tariff threats are affecting Latin America’s two biggest economies: Brazil and Mexico.

As Smith Ramos explains, trade is only one part of the balancing act that the Sheinbaum government must perform when handling bilateral ties. “ In negotiating with the U.S., we're facing a complex three-ring circus where you have, of course, the trade issues, but [also] immigration and fentanyl issues.”