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Investors Realizing Brazil President Bolsonaro's Political Party Not All That

April 16, 2019

Brazil’s new firebrand president, Jair Bolsonaro, never was an economic genius, nor did he pretend to be. But he brought on board a savvy and well-known Brazilian investor named Paulo Guedes, and so Wall Street came to like the man known as the Trump of the Tropics. Brazil was investable again.

One hundred days later, those same investors are learning that Bolsonaro is still no economic genius and his conservative (yes, conservative) Social Liberal Party (PSL) that surfed his wave into Congress as the No. 2 party behind the beat down Workers’ Party (PT), isn’t much better at it. Brazil has gone from the place to be, to the worst of the big four emerging markets in four weeks...

The reason investors bought Brazil starting last October is just that: no more PT. The market is now selling for simple profit taking over the last month. And because Bolsonaro and PSL cannot get their act together.

“Bolsonaro’s party has almost zero experience leading in Congress, and despite the fact that it is the second-largest party, the PSL is less than 10% of the lower house. The whole congress is fragmented, and Bolsonaro needs to build a coalition,” says Roberto Simon, a Brazil consultant and an analyst at the American Society/Council of the Americas...

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