Guyana's Irfaan Ali Wins Reelection as Country Navigates Oil Boom

Central to this year’s election, as it was to 2020’s contentious vote, was the question of how the incoming government will distribute the spoils of Guyana’s hydrocarbon bonanza. Guyana is  one of the world’s fastest-growing economies over the last five years, with 43.6 percent growth in 2024 alone, yet concerns about high levels of poverty and poor social services persist. Ali, like his predecessor David Granger (2015–2020), who oversaw the early stages of the oil boom, pledged to use the resource wealth to improve livelihoods, healthcare, and public infrastructure. 

Throughout Ali’s first term in office, however, opposition politicians raised concerns about the terms of the 2016 production-sharing agreement with the consortium of oil producers steering the country’s oil operations, arguing the deal favored the foreign energy companies. Ali refrained from renegotiating the contract his government inherited, and both the WIN and APNU candidates campaigned on promises to demand a larger share of the profits to increase social spending. 

Still, at the launch of the PPP/C’s 2025 electoral campaign, Ali and Bharrat Jagdeo, a former president (1999–2011) and current vice president who commands major political sway, emphasized efforts to distribute thousands of housing lots to Guyanese citizens, triple the education budget, and initiate construction on 12 healthcare facilities. During the inauguration for his second term, Ali named more marquee projects on his government’s infrastructure agenda, including a “new smart city, Silica City, and a shipping and logistics hub, [as well as] linking Brazil and CARICOM, thereby creating new markets and opening up new opportunities.”  He also declared intentions to “press forward with new exploration on a stronger production-sharing agreement, ensuring that the benefits are greater, the gains are wider, and the wealth is truly for the people." 

The 2015 discovery of an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil made Guyana the country with the most crude oil per capita. Oil production began in late 2019 and production capacity has since risen to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). By 2030, the end of the new legislative term, capacity is projected to expand to 1.7 billion bpd and annual revenue is expected to quadruple to $10 billion. The International Energy Agency predicts that Guyana’s oil production will experience the most growth globally through 2035. Already, this Amazonian territory with a population of around 800,000 is the fifth-largest exporter of crude oil in Latin America and the Caribbean. 

Although most of Guyana’s crude oil is exported to Europe and Asia, the U.S. government has been a vocal supporter of protecting the country’s burgeoning industry. Following the election, a State Department statement congratulated Ali and reiterated the U.S. commitment to “strengthening energy security and supporting Guyana’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, particularly with respect to the Essequibo region.” 

While Ali’s party gained ground, the 2025 vote saw a major shakeup in the electoral landscape. APNU, the PPP/C’s longstanding rival, splintered, clearing the way for WIN, a newly formed party headed by controversial billionaire gold magnate Azruddin Mohamed, to establish itself as the main opposition force.

Guyana’s electoral politics have been shaped by ethnic polarization since its independence in 1966. The PPP/C, which has governed the country for most of this period, is widely associated with the larger Indo-Guyanese population, while the People’s National Congress (PNCR), the party that leads the APNU alliance, has depended on Afro-Guyanese support. 

In this election, APNU lost in all of its traditional strongholds. Two regions flipped to the PPP/C, including, for the first time ever, Region 4, the most populous district and home to Georgetown, the capital. Just three months after it was founded, WIN captured the other two, as well as 25 percent of the national vote share to APNU’s 18 percent. 

So, what is WIN, the fresh political formation that set out to disrupt the race-based, two-party system? It was officially launched in June 2025 by Mohamed, a former donor to Ali’s PPP/C, who grew the party despite facing U.S.-imposed sanctions for alleged tax evasion, in addition to tax evasion charges in Guyana. WIN drew support from young and lower-income voters with pledges to spread oil wealth to all sectors of society,  including the Indigenous communities with which Mohamed has a history of philanthropy. The party’s policy platform included raising the income tax threshold, providing annual cash transfers, increasing financial assistance to those suffering serious illnesses, and raising pensions and wages. 

In the post-election period, Mohamed declared himself the leader of the opposition and pledged to demand increased transparency and accountability from the Ali government.