Election Overview: Latinos in the United States

With over 50 million people comprising the largest ethnic group in the United States, Latinos now account for an important voting bloc with growing political clout. While President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney seek to woo this part of the electorate, especially in hopes of winning in swing states, in reality Latinos encompass a widely varied group, ranging from Republican Cuban-Americans in Florida to Democrat Mexican-Americans in California.

Explore by section:

• Demographics
• Political Representation
• Voting
• Political Issues

Demographics: The Country’s Largest Ethnic Group

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 52 million Latinos living in the United States as of July 2011. This makes Hispanics the country’s largest ethnic minority, encompassing nearly 17 percent of the total population. In addition, 47 percent of Latinos in the United States were born abroad. The Latino population grew by 15.2 million from 2000 to 2010, accounting for over half of the United States’ total population growth during that decade.

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the largest Latino groups living in the United States are as follows:

• Mexicans and those of Mexican descent comprise the largest Hispanic group at 31.8 million people. The largest Mexican communities reside in California, Texas, and Arizona.
• Puerto Ricans are the second-largest group at 4.6 million, with the biggest populations in New York, Florida, and New Jersey.
• An estimated 1.78 million Cubans make up the third-largest group; the largest communities live in Florida, California, and New Jersey, respectively.
• Dominicans are the fourth-largest group at 1.41 million.
• Over 1 million Guatemalans live in the United States.

In addition, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates there are 1.82 million Salvadorans living in the United States, which would make them the fourth-largest group. Salvadorans may be undercounted in the census since a large number are undocumented.

California has the largest Hispanic population at an estimated 14.4 million. After that, the states with the country’s largest Latino communities are Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois, in that order. The city with the largest Hispanic population is New York with 2.3 million people, followed by Los Angeles, Houston, San Antonio, and Chicago, respectively.

Political Representation: Despite Progress, Still Lagging

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) reports that 5,850 Hispanics held public office in 2011—a 53 percent increase since 1996. However, Latinos only hold 3.3 percent of the country’s elected seats, despite encompassing nearly 17 percent of the population. Two Latinos serve as U.S. senators, and 24 serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 8 Latino members of Congress are Republican, while 18 are Democrats.

A number of Latino legislators gained prominence on the national level in recent years. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) serves on four committees, including the House Committee on Foreign Relations and the Select Committee on Intelligence. He worked on legislation similar to the DREAM Act to offer a path to residency for young undocumented immigrants; Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney often cites similar immigration proposals on the campaign trail. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) serves on several key committees, including the Senate Committee on Finance and the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs. The most senior Republican congresswoman in the House of Representatives, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), serves as chairwoman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Latinos also hold key positions in the federal government. Two Hispanics currently serve in cabinet positions: Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis. Sonia Sotomayor became the Supreme Court’s first Hispanic justice in 2009.

At the local level, 68 Hispanics serve as senators in state legislatures, and 183 serve as representatives at state congresses. The vast majority of Latino elected officials—around 96 percent—were elected in states with large Hispanic populations such as California, Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois.

At present, two Hispanics serve as governors: Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval and New Mexico Governor Susan Martinez. Martinez became the first female Hispanic governor when she took office in 2011. San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro became the first Hispanic keynote speaker at a Democratic National Convention this September.

Voting: Growing Constituency, Growing Clout

A record 23.7 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2012 presidential election. The number marks a 22 percent increase from 19.5 million in 2008. But the number of registered Latino voters declined by 600,000 between 2008 and 2010 to 11 million; Latino registration numbers for 2012 are not available yet. Nevertheless, NALEO estimates that 12.2 million Latinos will cast ballots in the November 6 election. An October 29 impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll found that 87 percent of Latinos said they are “almost certain they will vote.” This includes 8 percent of Hispanics—around 1 million people—who already cast ballots through early voting. In addition, foreign-born Latinos are 72 percent more likely to vote, compared to 62 percent for U.S.-born Hispanics.

As far as party affiliation, Latinos tend to favor Democrats. An October Pew Hispanic Center study found that 70 percent of registered Latino voters consider themselves Democrats and 22 percent say they are Republicans. The October 29 LatinoDecisions poll indicated that 73 percent of Latinos favor Obama, while 21 percent support Romney.

Country of origin sometimes accounts for differences in political preferences. An October 11 Pew Hispanic Center study found that 67 percent of Mexican-American voters favor Obama, compared to 22 percent for Romney. Puerto Ricans also tend to vote Democrat; in Florida, for example, over half of Puerto Rican voters supported Obama, a July Bendixen and Amandi poll found. But even within this group, there’s a difference: while continental-born Puerto Ricans usually vote Democrat, those born on the island are less predictable politically.

Cuban-American voters tend to vote Republican, particularly in Florida. For example, an October 28 Miami Herald poll in Miami-Dade County—home to half of the country’s Cuban population—found that 77 percent of Cuban-American voters support Romney, compared to only 39 percent of non-Cuban Latino voters in that area. However, a growing Cuban-American youth electorate under age 29 leans more to the left; in 2008, 65 percent of this group voted for Obama.

Analysts believe Latinos could be critical in deciding the vote in 2012. As Fernand Amandi from pollster Bendixen & Amandi International noted at an October 18 Latino vote panel, Latinos already showed their voting power in 2010, when they helped maintain a Democratic majority in the Senate. He noted that Hispanic voters could prove decisive in four swing states: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Virginia. However, Latino voters account for less than 16 percent of the electorate in these states, and only 3.7 percent in Virginia. Meanwhile, 55 percent of Hispanic voters reside in just three states: California, New York, and Texas.

Political Issues: Beyond Immigration

Immigration counts as a major issue among Latinos. Many support immigration reform and oppose stringent state-based immigration laws, such as Arizona’s SB 1070. A June Pew Hispanic Center survey found that 75 percent of Latinos disapprove of SB 1070, and 53 percent support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. An October 4 CNN poll found that nearly three-quarters of Latinos support Obama’s deferred-action policy, which allows some young undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States and apply for work permits.

But Latinos count other issues as important. According to the October 29 LatinoDecisions poll, creating more jobs and fixing the economy was a top concern, followed by immigration reform, improving education, and health care.

Jobs are key, as Hispanic unemployment rates tend to be higher than for white Americans. In 2011, for example, Latino unemployment averaged 11.5 percent, compared to 7.9 percent for whites. In September, nearly 25 million Latinos were employed—accounting for around 16 percent of the workforce overall.

Latinos also care about education, with record numbers of Hispanics enrolling in college. But in spite of a 24 percent increase in college enrollment among Latinos from 2009 to 2010, they still lag in university attendance compared to other groups. Currently, 32 percent of Hispanics attend college, compared to 38 percent of African-Americans, 43 percent of whites, and 62 percent of Asians.

Hispanics also see health care as a critical issue, since Latinos face health disparities with other groups. In 2010, over 30 percent of Latinos lacked health insurance, compared to 11.7 percent of caucasians. Latino children have the country’s highest obesity rate—two in five are overweight or obese—and half of Hispanic children born in 2000 risk developing diabetes. Latinas are twice as likely to die from complications arising from pregnancy than whites, and 20 percent more likely to die from breast cancer.

Social issues also come into play, since some Latinos are more conservative on matters such as abortion and gay marriage than the general population. Around 19 percent of Latinos oppose abortions in all circumstances compared to 15 percent of the total electorate, a November 2011 poll found. Twenty-three percent of Latinos said abortion should be legal in all circumstances, while 30 percent of the electorate supports this statement. The same survey showed that around 43 percent of Hispanics support gay marriage compared to roughly 50 percent of Americans overall.