Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro Gets Second Shot at Re-Election

By Samantha Pearson and Luciana Magalhaes

"All the big [polls] were just catastrophically wrong," said AS/COA's Brian Winter to The Wall Street Journal.

For months, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had argued that the unfavorable opinion polls ahead of Brazil’s presidential vote Sunday were wrong. He was right.

The right-wing ex-army captain secured 43.2% of the vote in the first round of presidential elections, more than 51 million votes and almost 10 percentage points more than some polls had predicted. He still fell short of his rival, leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who got 48.4%, which triggers a runoff vote at the end of October.

Now, Brazil’s presidential election, considered only days ago by pollsters and many analysts to be a shoo-in for Mr. da Silva, is up for grabs, political scientists said on Monday. […]

“I’m done with polls in Brazil for the rest of this election cycle. All the big ones were just catastrophically wrong,” said Brian Winter, editor of Americas Quarterly, a nonpartisan journal about Latin America. “The sense of déjà vu as an American who watched the 2016 and 2020 elections is incredible. Conservative voters were undercounted, what a surprise. How did we let ourselves get misled again?”…

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