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Would Cuba's System Survive if it Lost Venezuela as a Partner?

By Christopher Sabatini

"Venezuela's ideologically driven largesse is the only thing keeping Cuba's creaking economic system afloat," says AS/COA's Christopher Sabatini in a Q&A with Latin American Advisor, adding: "There is no other country that could step in."

Q: President Hugo Chávez's battle with cancer has raised concerns not only in Venezuela, but also in Cuba, which has benefitted from Venezuelan largesse during Chávez's rule to the tune of some $5 billion annually, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report. How big of a blow would it be to Cuba if Chávez were unable to continue in office? Can Cuba's economic and political system survive the loss of Venezuela as a strategic partner? Would another country be able to support Cuba if Venezuela's shipments of oil to Cuba on preferential terms dry up?

A: Christopher Sabatini, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy for the Americas Society and Council of the Americas:

"The Cuban regime should be very worried about President Hugo Chávez's political fate. Venezuela's ideologically driven largesse is the only thing keeping Cuba's creaking economic system afloat. Should that disappear, Cuba will be forced to do more than just engage in the timid reforms it announced last year to expand small, private economic activity-which will already not provide the sort of hard currency and tax revenue that the Cuban regime expects and would never even come close to replacing the estimated $5 billion that President Chávez has showered on his mentors. There is no other country that could step in. The other ALBA nations are likewise being bankrolled by Venezuelan oil and petro dollars; and there are no economic or political reasons for China-the only other remaining country who could step in-to prop up a country that has little to offer in terms of raw materials that its roaring economy needs. (Unfortunately for Cuba, its usual currency of doctors and sports trainers isn't needed in China). Any real opening up to the world economy would force dramatic changes in the economy and the political system, threatening the regime's control. The hoped-for discovery of oil off the Cuban coast-while it could provide some breathing space-even if it is found, would not come on line in time to replace Venezuelan support after 2012. The risk to the Castro regime isn't so much that President Chávez's term will be cut short by his death (since his place would be filled until the 2012 elections by a like-minded ideological ally) but what the illness will mean for the 2012 presidential elections. An opposition victory would bring a swift end to the Cuban lifeline. With food shortages and debt mounting in Venezuela, a new president without the ideological fascination with the Cuban Revolution would quickly reinvest the money in the local, struggling economy. Faced with that prospect, expect the Cuban government and those sports trainers to pull out all the stops to help secure another victory for President Chávez or his successor in 2012."

Click here to read the complete Q&A.

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