Weekly Roundup: Cuban Elections, a Virtual Fence, and the U.S.-Andean Trade Pact

Raul Takes Over in Cuba

Cuban legislators chose Raul Castro to succeed his brother Fidel as Cuba’s new president along with hard-liner José Ramón Ventura as first vice president, disappointing hopes for short-term political change on the Caribbean island. However, some experts predict that, even if there is not much substantive political change, economic shifts are likely.

“This leadership team recognizes the urgency of beginning to implement some meaningful economic reforms,” said Brian Latell, author of After Fidel, in an interview with NPR.  Richard Lapper writes in the Financial Times that “economic factors run in Cuba’s favor” at the moment as the country gets discounted oil from Venezuela, Chinese credit, and high revenues from nickel. Major Brazilian media outlets suggest that Brazil could play a far-reaching role in Cuba’s economy, says Los Angeles Times blog La Plaza. Yet the New York Times notes that Raul Castro’s first public act as president was not to meet with Latin American leaders or Chinese officials, but the Vatican’s secretary of state and that “there are reasons to think a turning point has come to the island.”

On March 5, the Council of the Americas hosts an event titled “Cuba: What Comes Next?” Read an AS/COA Online analysis of Brazil’s recent investments in Cuba.

IN OTHER NEWS:

U.S. Candidates on Latin America

During a speech on foreign policy delivered at George Washington University this week, Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton said, “We need to engage with our allies in Latin America and Europe to encourage Cuba on to the right path.” She also said that, as president, she would not meet with Venezuelan and Cuban heads of state without preconditions.

In a Dallas Morning News Op-Ed, Clinton’s rival Senator Barack Obama outlined his presidential policy goals for U.S.-Mexico relations. Obama proposals include intelligence sharing and anti-drug education to control illicit activities as well a “bilateral strategy for lifting up our border communities.” 

Republican front-runner Senator John McCain, speaking at a town-hall meeting in Indiana, predicted there would be little change in Cuba under Raul Castro and expressed the hope that Fidel Castro “has the opportunity to meet Karl Marx very soon.”

Pablo Bachelet of the Miami Herald provides a sample list of the officials and specialists with Latin America expertise working as advisors on the campaigns of the leading U.S. presidential candidates. 

NAFTA: Canadian and Mexican Perspectives

While the U.S. Democratic candidates spar over their support for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Canadian and Mexican perspectives hold that the United States does benefit from the trade pact. During an interview with CTV's "Canada AM," Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty reacted to Democratic candidates remarks they would renegotiate NAFTA's terms by saying they "should recognize that NAFTA benefits the U.S. tremendously." PostGlobal carries a story featuring interviews with Mexican farmers in the state of Hidalgo, who express confusion about NAFTA and complain about a lack of assistance from the Mexican government. 

Building a “Virtual Fence”

After months of glitches and operational setbacks, officials from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) approved a “virtual fence” along the U.S.-Mexico border on February 22. Michael Chertoff, Homeland Security chief, lauded the value of the system, yet the DHS has decided not to entirely copy the same model used in the pilot project beyond the initial 28-mile stretch, which will use radars and surveillance cameras to monitor border activities.

Read AS/COA online analysis of the illegal arms’ trade flowing from the United States to Mexico.

Guatemalan President Strikes Balance

An ISN Security Watch analysis takes a look at the first month in office of center-left Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom, saying he has managed to steer clear of stormy diplomatic waters by balancing “what his country needs and what Washington and Caracas want.”

Extending the ATPDEA

An editorial in the Miami Herald urges the U.S. Congress to renew the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act, which is scheduled to expire February 28. The article argues that the agreement with Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has been a boon to the Andean cut-flower industries and both U.S. and Andean textile markets. Congress is expected to approve a short-term extension of the trade deal.

Peace vs. Division in Colombia’s Marches

The Latin American Thought blog examines the massive February 4 international march protesting the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and the upcoming March 6 protest against Colombian paramilitaries, which has garnered less attention. Writes Sebastian Chaskel, “The lack of support for March 6 will be a reminder of how far Colombians are from clamoring for peace.”

AS/COA Online examines the role of social networking websites in organizing civil and political rallies.

Lula: Brazil Prepared for U.S. Recession

President Lula Inácio da Silva argued in his radio program that Brazil, which first emerged as a net foreign creditor last week, is prepared to handle a U.S. recession and to be “taken seriously in international financial circles.” A Bloomberg article looks at the rising value of Latin American currencies—from the Brazil’s to Colombia’s to Mexico’s—as a sign of fading U.S. economic influence over the region.

A recent AS/COA Miami event gathered experts to examine Brazil’s economic outlook in 2008.

Securing a Brazilian Town

The Christian Science Monitor takes a look at successful efforts to drive down crime in Vila Boa, formerly one of Brazil’s most dangerous towns. The article not only credits Brazil’s flourishing economy, but also Vila Boa’s mayor for launching public works and social service programs. 

The Road through Chile, Bolivia, and Brazil

A recent report by University of Pennsylvania’s Knowledge@Wharton examines a December 2007 agreement between Brazil, Bolivia, and Chile that involves constructing a road linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The analysis says the project’s technical and logistical hurdles will test the three countries’ level of integration, yet officials remain optimistic between their governments.