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Forbes.com: Roberto Simon, "The Market Still Thinks Macri Has a Chance"

April 17, 2019

Get ready for another Argentina default! Incumbent President Mauricio Macri is slipping deeper in the polls, and inflation is ridiculously high, now over 51% annualized. Argentina is facing a “Macrisis,” as one fund manager called it, lumping the words Macri and crisis into one word.

“The ‘Macrisis’ will bring volatility, opportunities for the speculators and suffering for the real people,” says Fernando Pertini, chief investment officer for Millenia Costa Rica, a wealth management firm. “I doubt this suffering population will keep voting for him.”...

A recent poll by polling firm Synopsis has Macri losing in all three scenarios with the suspected third-place candidates. No matter who joins the fray, including Roberto Lavagna, an economist and cabinet minister who served under Cristina’s husband Nestor in his first term as president, Macri is at least seven points behind.

Worse yet, Macri also loses in one-on-one matchups with Lavagna and Sergio Massa, a former Cristina cabinet member.

“The market still thinks Macri has a chance,” says Roberto Simon, former Latin America analyst with FTI Consulting and now with Americas Society/Council of the Americas, a think tank associated with the American Chamber of Commerce...

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