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Mexico enters 2014 with the wind at its back. The new administration has achieved a slate of critical reforms—energy, education, telecom, banking, and fiscal, among others—leading Standard & Poor’s to lift Mexico’s credit rating. This year, the president has promised agrarian and health reforms. The Mexican peso is expected to have the biggest advance among major currencies in 2014. Last year, Mexican companies sold a record $12.3 billion of shares, the second year in a row the record has been bested. Internationally, 2013 saw Mexico consolidate its global and regional leadership through blocs such as the Pacific Alliance and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. With GDP growth of only 1.3 percent in 2013, Mexico looks for more growth in 2014, given a construction sector in recovery, increased demand from the United States, and public expenditures that will increase by more than 30 percent. Politically, the Party of the Democratic Revolution and the National Action Party will each vote to elect a party president. What will 2014 hold for Mexico? What will the security situation look like? What will be the final shape of the reforms? With NAFTA celebrating its twentieth anniversary, will there be a repositioning of the agreement? How will investors see Mexico?
Americas Society/Council of the Americas hosted a panel of Mexico experts with experience in the private and public sectors and academia to discuss the political and economic outlook for Mexico in 2014.
- Gustavo Flores-Macias, Professor of Government, Cornell University
- Gerardo Rodriguez, Managing Director, Blackrock
- Lisa Schineller, Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, Standard & Poor’s
- Jose Enrique Arrioja, Editor-At-Large, Latin America, Bloomberg News (Moderator)
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José Enrique Arrioja
Mexico City Bureau Chief, Bloomberg
José Enrique Arrioja has been Mexico City bureau chief for Bloomberg since 2009. Previously, he was news director for Bloomberg in New York from 2008 to 2009, where he coordinated Bloomberg Television Latin America and was an anchor on the show Reporte Financiero. Arrioja was also a TV reporter for Bloomberg, gathering and reporting US economic and market information for Spanish-speaking audiences. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was editor of The Wall Street Journal Americas in Spanish from 1998 to 2000.
Assistant Professor of Government, Cornell University
Gustavo Flores-Macías is assistant professor of Government at Cornell University. He received a PhD in comparative government from Georgetown University and a master’s in public policy from Duke University, where he was a Fulbright scholar. His research focuses mainly on the politics of economic reforms in the developing world, with an emphasis on Latin America. His book, After Neoliberalism?
Managing Director, Emerging Markets, BlackRock
Gerardo Rodriguez is the managing director of BlackRock's Emerging Markets group. Rodriguez joined BlackRock in 2013 after more than 14 years in the Mexican Ministry of Finance, where he last served as undersecretary of Finance and Public Credit. As undersecretary, he oversaw all aspects related to the development of the local financial system and international affairs of the Ministry of Finance. When Mexico hosted the G20 Summit in 2012, Rodriguez led the process to increase the resources available for the IMF by more than $450 billion.
Lisa M. Schineller
Economist and Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, Standard & Poor’s
Lisa M. Schineller is an economist and managing director of the Latin American Sovereign Ratings department at Standard & Poor’s. She is responsible for sovereign analysis in the Latin American group, working on Brazil, Mexico, and other credits in the region. In her role as economist, she formulates S&P’s economic forecasts and publications for the Latin America region. Schineller was an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) from 2006 to 2009.