Venezuela's Military: A Factor in the Upcoming Election?
Venezuela's Military: A Factor in the Upcoming Election?
Henrique Capriles Radonski, the likely winner of the opposition primary on February 12, may have to contend with more than just President Chávez in his quest for the presidency.
Election year in Venezuela kicks off on February 12 with the governor of the state of Miranda, Henrique Capriles Radonski, comfortably leading in the polls and projected to win the opposition primary. He will face the campaign machine of President Hugo Chávez or "El Comandante," which is marching ahead with the well-oiled efficiency of a Roman legion. But another factor, the armed forces, will play a critical role in the event of a potential transfer of power.
Basking in the annual commemorations of his attempted coup in 1992 ("4F") and his first presidential inauguration 13 years ago, President Chávez completed a series of senior military and political appointments in January that, in the words of one former army officer, amount to the creation of a close-knit command or "mando cerrado" determined to secure the continuation of Chávez's so-called Bolivarian Revolution.
The question is, will this be by fair means or foul? "Imagine a coup like 4F but this time led not by a lieutenant colonel and captains, but a president, generals and members of the National Assembly supported by irregular combat forces. That is what is being prepared," said one former officer, now a successful businessman, who retains close links with his military peers.
President Chávez's ill health lends his campaign a certain air of unreality, since he is simultaneously planning his own succession. According to a range of United States and Latin American intelligence sources, as well as sources within his own government, Chávez's cancer is much worse than admitted. They say he is suffering from prostate and colon cancer that has metastasized to his lower back vertebrae and other parts of his body.
Further, according to alleged medical reports cited by the Spanish ABC newspaper, Chávez has abandoned chemotherapy, apparently in order to keep his energy up for the election campaign. Barring a medical miracle he probably has no more than 18 months to live, maybe much less...
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Simon Strong is senior managing director of the business advisory firm, FTI Consulting, Inc., and heads its Global Risk and Investigations Practice at its Miami office. An author of books on guerrilla violence, drugs trafficking and corruption, he is a specialist in Latin America security matters.
