Nicolás Maduro Poised to Defeat Henrique Capriles, Holds The Future Of Chavismo
Nicolás Maduro Poised to Defeat Henrique Capriles, Holds The Future Of Chavismo
AS/COA’s Christopher Sabatini analyzes the outlook on the upcoming elections as uncertainty escalates and the future of Venezuela looks challenging for the next leader.
In less than two weeks – and in just over a month after the passing of Hugo Chávez – Venezuela will hold its presidential elections to decide who will be the new leader of the Bolivarian Republic.
If recent poll numbers and expert opinions are correct, acting President Nicolás Maduro will easily win the presidency over challenger Henrique Capriles and continue to lead the country down the path of Chavismo. The most recent polls suggest that Maduro has a 14-point lead over Capriles as the campaign ramps up ahead of the April 14 vote.
“It’s Maduro’s election to lose,” said Chris Sabatini, the senior policy director at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, a nonprofit think tank in New York City. “It is getting close, but on Election Day we’re not looking at a contest between Maduro and Capriles. We’re looking at a contest between the uncertainly in the country and the legacy of Chavismo.”
While Maduro appears guaranteed to win the presidency, what happens afterward – especially during the municipal elections in July – will be a better indication of the future of the Chavismo movement and Venezuela. The legacy and myth of Hugo Chávez is still fresh in the minds of many Venezuelans, giving Maduro and the rest of the Chavistas a steady bump in the polls.
But once that sheen wears off and the cracks in the administration begin to show, the opposition could gain some footing, experts said.
“The local elections will be a better indication of the feelings in Venezuela,” Sabatini said. “The honeymoon period after Chávez’s death should be over and people will judge the government by what they do and not by the legacy of Chávez….”
“He’s a formidable opponent, but he could lose twice at a run for the presidency,” Sabatini said. “That’s the kiss of death.”
Capriles will still retain his post as governor of the powerful state of Miranda and his rhetoric and youth still draw support from many anti-Chavistas….
