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Mexico 2018: Can AMLO Really Get To 20 Million Votes?

October 06, 2017

A question institutional investors often ask regarding Mexico’s presidential elections next year is: Can Andrés Manuel López Obrador actually win? Most polls do indeed put the leftist former mayor of Mexico City, known popularly by his initials, AMLO, ahead of hypothetical adversaries today. But the road to the 20 million votes he likely needs to become president is more difficult than many appreciate.

The most obvious caveat to the recent polls is that AMLO is, so far, the only certain candidate for 2018. Other parties have not yet settled on their candidates. This leaves room for...

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