Keynote speaker:

• Alfredo Cornejo, Governor of Mendoza, Argentina

Panel:

• Alberto Bernal, Chief of Strategy, XP Investments
• Joydeep Mukherji, Head of Sovereign Ratings in Latin America and the Caribbean, S&P Global Ratings
• Casey Reckman, Director Emerging Markets Economics Group, Credit Suisse
• Juan Cruz Díaz, Special Advisor, Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Managing Director, Cefeidas Group (moderator)

All eyes are on Argentina's economic recovery as the country prepares for a presidential election on October 27. An expert panel in New York agreed the country's prospects look to improve in 2019 over the previous year, as the currency stabilizes and inflation drops. Although S&P dropped Argentina's rating to a B last November, Joydeep Mukherji said the ratings agency's stable outlook for the country is more telling. The forecast, however, depends on broad policy continuity under the next government, agreed the panelists. Mauricio Macri's chances at reelection will depend on the peso's performance, noted Alberto Bernal, who projects the election will ultimately come down to Macri and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner—if she runs for president—and is unlikely to be upended by an outsider. Aside from maintaining a path of macroeconomic reform, Casey Reckman highlighted governability will be key for the next administration, which would do well to tackle pension and labor reform as well. 

Before the discussion, Mendoza Governor Alfredo Cornejo gave a presentation on the province's progress in fostering a good environment for investors, in spite of Argentina's economic challenges. Cornejo spoke about measures his adminstration took to provide basic services and create smart regulations for companies like Uber in recent years. "Mendoza and Cordoba are the only provinces in Argentina that did not default when Argentina defaulted," he said. "We are careful with contracts."

Eric Farnsworth, vice president of AS/COA, spoke with BBC´s Newsnight about the role the international community plays in regaining democracy for Venezuela. He said: "The goal here is to get to free and fair elections in Venezuela. It doesn't look like Nicolás Maduro is willingly going to take those steps, so the international community along with the Venezuelan people themselves have tried to bring pressure on him to allow that to happen."

Farnsworth also commented on the challenges that may arise after democracy is attained. "The issue is going to be whether the international community creates a breathing space for the new government to get back on its feet." He added: "This is going to be a full reconstruction of a collapsing country. It's really remarkable. Venezuela used to be the wealthiest country in Latin America." 

Eric Farnsworth, vice president of AS/COA, spoke with CBC's Power & Politics show about the role the United States plays in the Venezuela crisis. On the current situation between the Nicolás Maduro regime and Juan Guaidó's interim government, he said: "Breakthrough would require one of the two sides to back down, and I don't see Maduro and his immediate supporters agreeing to leave anytime soon, and interim President Guaidó has the support of the international community, so I don't see him necessarily backtracking either." 

Farnsworth also spoke on the Venezuelan military's position within the revolution, "The Chávez government…and now the Maduro government have spent an awful lot of attention and priority to try to maintain the loyalty of the security forces." Farnsworth also explained that because of their ties with the Nicolás Maduro government, it's harder for military officials to change sides. "It's not easy. You can't just say 'O.K. I'm going to rebel today and have a successful rebellion.' It's a lot more complicated than that, so these are some of the calculations I think people are weighing right now."

Panelists:

• Carlos Bravo Regidor, Professor, Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE); Columnist, Reforma
• Jorge Guajardo, Senior Director, McLarty Associates 
• Valeria Moy, Director, México, ¿Cómo Vamos?; Columnist, Milenio
• Brian Winter, Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly; Vice President, Policy, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (moderator)

Two months into the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Americas Quarterly and AS/COA convened leading Mexican experts to discuss the country's political and economic trajectory in the coming year and beyond. Panelists discussed how the markets are reacting to López Obrador's policy proposals, with Valeria Moy noting: "The markets have been extremely lenient." When asked who AMLO turns to for advice, Jorge Guajardo answered: "No one other than his whim." As moderator, Brian Winter asked how panelists see the president achieving the changes demanded by the electorate, CIDE's Carlos Bravo Regidor suggested that, to give AMLO the benefit of the doubt, the disruptive nature of the start of his administration may well relate to what change looks like in Mexico. "Why wouldn't change be messy?" he asked.

• Read at Americas Quarterly: AMLO 2019 — A Primer on Mexico's New Government
• Follow the first 100 days of AMLO's presidency.

Las sanciones anunciadas por la administración Trump contra el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro consolidan el aislamiento comercial mientras abren el camino para respaldar al presidente interino Juan Guaidó, explicó a la Voz de América Guillermo Zubillaga, presidente del Grupo de Trabajo de Venezuela para Americas Society/Council of the Americas.

Zubillaga habló sobre las sanciones de Estados Unidos explicando que significan un paso más en el reconocimiento del presidente interino Juan Guaidó. Además recalcó que "8 de cada 10 dólares que realmente ingresan al tesoro venezolano vienen de las transacciones con los Estados Unidos... Es decir, que en cuanto a una presión económica no podría pensar yo en una medida que tenga mayor impacto".