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Raúl on Tour

By Carin Zissis

As the 50-year anniversary for the Cuban Revolution nears, Raúl Castro makes his first state visits abroad. His statements at a regional summit raise speculation about future relations with Washington and what mediating role Brazil could play.

Nearly 50 years after the Cuban Revolution, the specter of the Cold War still hovers over the island as three Russian warships pay a visit on December 19. Yet this week also serves as a foreign travel landmark for Raúl Castro, who makes his first state visits abroad since assuming the presidency from his brother Fidel. Castro touched down in Venezuela first, but went on to regional summit in Brazil. The conference underscores not only Brazil’s growing leadership in the region but also the possibility that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could facilitate U.S.-Cuba relations as speculation arises about President-elect Barack Obama’s Cuba policy.

Leaders from 33 countries kicked off the first Latin American and Caribbean Summit on Integration and Development in Salvador de Bahia, Brazil on Tuesday. While few concrete results may come out of the meeting, host country Brazil gains another leg up as a regional leader Lula faces tests in that role, ranging from a spat with Ecuador over debt payments to difficult negotiations over reducing tariffs between Mercosur member countries.

Representatives from Washington remain conspicuously absent from the summit. But, upon arriving in Brazil, Raúl Castro told journalists that he would be willing to meet with the future President-elect Barack Obama to talk about ending the embargo against Cuba. "If Mr. Obama wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it," said Castro to reporters. "We are in a hurry to resolve this. We've been living under these conditions for 50 years." He also said that he expects Washington to make concessions first.

Castro’s visit in Brazil served as evidence that Lula could serve as a mediator in discussions between Cuba and the United States. The Brazilian president has strengthened his own links with Cuba over the past year, having made two visits to Havana. As AS/COA Senior Policy Director Christopher Sabatini told the New York Times, “The U.S. approach to Cuba will unfreeze with Obama…Lula has both the international cred and the ideological cred to be an interlocutor in this process.”

Obama, who voiced a willingness to meet with Castro while running for office, has indicated his policy could involve softening Washington’s stance on Havana; he said his administration would allow Cuban Americans to visit relatives and end limits on remittances to the island. Despite waning public support for the embargo imposed in 1962 and international calls to end it, Obama said he would not lift the embargo “until we are seeing clear signs of increased political freedom.”

Since taking office, Castro has overseen a series of changes that range from lifting bans on purchasing electronics to some land reforms. The moderate moves have drawn complaints from experts and U.S. officials who say the reforms are little more than window dressing for a regime that remains authoritarian. Others wonder if Fidel continues to control the show.

While theories circulate over the future of U.S.-Cuban relations, other countries—in some cases Washington’s adversaries— have deepened links with Havana. During Castro’s stop in Caracas, he signed agreements with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to boost the island’s oil refining capacity.

This week, the first visit by Russian warships to Cuba since the Soviet era comes on the heels of President Dmitry Medvedev’s November trip to Latin America, when he made a stop in Cuba. The U.S. State Department reacted with little concern to the presence of the Russian ships, which also stopped in Nicaragua. Yet the moves come as tensions rise between Russia and the United States. ''Clearly, the Russia-Cuba friendship is being reignited…just when Washington and Moscow relations are going through a tough time,'' Damián Fernández, the former director of Florida International University's Cuban Research Institute, told the Miami Herald. “It's an irritant for the last days of the Bush administration.''

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