Iran in the Americas: A Readout of the Visit

Speakers:

• Afshin Molavi, Senior Research Fellow, New America Foundation
• Stephen Johnson, Director, Americas Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
• Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society and Council of the Americas (moderator)

Summary

In this program, Americas Society and Council of the Americas sought to explore the meaning and impact of President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent Latin American tour, which took him to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and Ecuador. New American Foundation Senior Research Fellow Afshin Molavi and Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Stephen Johnson discussed Iran’s domestic political and economic challenges, the extent of trade with Latin America, Iran’s foreign policy emphasis on soft power, and U.S. security concerns.

Iran’s Political and Economic Situation

Both speakers noted that Iran’s economy has been struggling due to years of international sanctions and increasing economic isolation. Some of the effects can be seen in Iran’s vast unemployment and underemployment along with the depreciation of the rial by 40 percent since December 2010. Additionally, the pressure of growing political discontent has led to widespread jailing of dissidents, which has not stopped the unrest. According to Molavi, “The Arab Spring has not been good to Iran.”

Though many outside Iran view Ahmadinejad as the face of the country, the internal situation differs. Molavi and Johnson both noted other domestic political forces in Iran, including the Chief of State and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—who has more support among the Iranian population than Ahmadinejad—the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and the Iranian legislature.

Iran’s Trade and Investment in Latin America

Iranian trade with Latin America is not a “very comprehensive relationship,” said Johnson. Molavi pointed out that Brazil, at about 0.4 percent of total trade, is Iran’s biggest trade partner in the region, and that 60 percent of Iranian oil is exported to China, Japan, South Korea, and India. So while Ahmadinejad’s Latin American tour was ostensibly focused on increasing trade and investment ties in the region, according to Molavi, his real mission was more about soft power and shoring up friends in Latin America.

Iran’s Soft Power Interests

In his sixth trip to Latin America, Ahmadinejad visited to Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Both Molavi and Johnson concluded that Ahmadinejad’s trip was not substantive in terms of trade, investment military relations, or “sanctions busting.” Instead, it was buttressed primarily by the “deep personal affinity” between President of Venezuela Hugo Chávez and Ahmadinejad. This friendship with Chávez has opened up the world for Ahmadinejad, said Molavi.

The tour was also an attempt to assuage domestic fears about political isolation, which is increasingly of concern to Iran. According to Molavi, “Iran is extraordinarily resilient, and one thing they’re constantly looking towards is the U.S. It makes them feel good to have allies in America’s backyard.” Despite Ahmadinejad’s efforts, some Latin American countries, such as Ecuador, might engage with Iran on certain issues, but do not want to run the risk of losing the U.S. market. For example, Ecuador has not followed through with an agreement to create an export development bank with Iran for fear of running afoul of U.S. sanctions. As notable as the countries Ahmadinejad traveled to are the countries he didn’t, chief among them Brazil. While President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva welcomed Ahmadinejad in Brazil in 2009, President Dilma Rousseff declined to give Ahmadinejad the same “gloss of respectability” receiving him would convey, as Farnsworth put it.

U.S. Security Considerations

Without perfect information, it is difficult for the United States to understand Iran’s intentions in Latin America. Although Iran’s relationship with Latin America does not seem to pose an immediate threat to U.S. interests, Johnson cautioned that there are still relevant security concerns, primarily Iran’s nuclear ambitions and possible involvement in terrorism. He quoted political pundit and author Fareed Zakaria, who wrote, “Sometimes weak powers do desperate things.”