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Chávez Tests Popularity

By Carlos Macias

Venezuelan voters approved a referendum lifting term limits for elected officials on Sunday, allowing President Hugo Chávez to seek reelection indefinitely. With nearly complete results, 54 percent voted for the proposal.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez may stand for reelection indefinitely after voters approved a referendum lifting term limits for elected officials on Sunday. With nearly complete returns, the National Electoral Council announced that 54 percent of voters approved the amendment.

This follows a heated battle between the "Yes" and the "No" sides, with opinion polls showing a split country before Sunday's vote. The referendum served as a test of Chávez’s popularity at a time when inflation and crime rates have soared while falling oil prices threaten subsidies on food, fuel, and medical care. These social programs have thus far been the backbone of a strong chavista movement. But the opposition made inroads as the economic cracks begin to show.

Yet the Venezuelan government remains confident on that regard, with Chávez claiming his country’s economy to be so strong that “[n]ot even a hair has been touched” by the global financial crisis. Despite his optimism, restructuring efforts are already underway. Citgo—a U.S.-based subsidiary of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A (PDVSA)—announced that it will cut its workforce of 3,762 by two percent, or approximately 75 employees. Additionally, PDVSA’s exploration and operational budget will be reduced between 30 to 40 percent in 2009, El Universal reports.

A new report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research offers up the country’s economic accomplishments in the areas of poverty reduction and GDP growth. But several experts and analysts take a less glowing view. “Venezuela is destroying assets much more quickly than it’s been building them, given today’s oil prices,” said Eurasia Group’s Patrick Esteruelas in an interview with AS/COA Online. Caracas-based Banco Mercantil recently predict that Venezuela’s economy will freeze and public financing could climb from $6.3 billion from last year up to $31.4 billion in 2009, reports Bloomberg.

The Economist offers a look at the political debate occurring among Venezuelans over the benefits of public services involving healthcare and subsidized food products against a backdrop of rampant crime and ballooning inflation. The lead-up to the vote involved heavy polarization between the “Yes” and the “No” camps and even some violent outbreaks. On February 7, roughly one million people demonstrated in Caracas in support of the No vote and against an end to presidential term limits. Opposition leader Leopoldo López urged voters to cast their ballots and repeat the December 2007 defeat of Chávez’s new constitution.

Chávez voiced his disapproval of the march but recognized that his followers should not downplay its importance and has gone as far as to condemn the actions of some supporters. A group of his most fervent followers, known as “La Piedrita,” staged teargas attacks on the Vatican diplomatic mission and the home of RCTV Director Marcel Garnier. They also went to so far as to make death threats against opposition leaders. Chávez responded to these actions with a hardened stance, labeling them terrorists and calling for the arrest of its leader Valentín Santana. Spanish newspaper El Pais published an interview with Santana in which he attempts to explain why his group declared some opposition leaders military targets. Additionally, the Venezuelan police arrested 11 suspects—including seven police agents—after a synagogue was attacked and ransacked by vandals on February 1.

At a February 9 AS/COA panel discussion on the Venezuelan referendum, Barclays Capital Senior Economist for the Andes Alejandro Grisanti said that, even if Chávez accomplishes a victory on Sunday, he still must deal with harsh economic realities that could further harm his approval ratings when running for an hypothetical third term in 2012.

While falling short of repeating his 2006 reelection results of over 60 percent, Sunday’s referendum is a decisive victory for Chávez and his broader social and political agenda at a time that could have been his last stand.

The Winter 2009 issue of Americas Quarterly features interviews with three candidates barred from running in the November 2008 legislative elections in Venezuela.

Read AS/COA interviews with Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López  and student activist Yon Goicoechea.

Updated on February 16, 2009.

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