Reading Bolivia's Political Tea Leaves

Carin Zissis
August 19, 2008

A man walks by pro-Morales graffiti in La Paz. (AP Images)

Bolivia’s President Evo Morales scored a major electoral victory in an August 10 recall election, when more than two-thirds of voters opted to keep him and Vice President Álvaro Garcia Linera in power. During a triumphant speech delivered from a balcony of the presidential palace, Morales called for unity. But, little more than a week later, opposition leaders in the country’s eastern provinces—where governing prefects also secured wins in the recall vote—have pledged protests against Morales’ energy reforms. The demonstrations raise the question of whether the referenda contributed in any way to bridging the divide between the largely indigenous altiplano in the western part of the country and the autonomy-seeking, energy-rich departments of the eastern lowlands.

Days after the recall vote, Morales met with the opposition governors of Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca with the goal of healing rifts. But Santa Cruz Governor Rubén Costas, arguably the most outspoken of Morales’ opponents, chose not to attend the meetings. Instead, Costas’ government released a law related to his department’s regional elections, currently scheduled for January 2009. Mount St. Mary’s University Professor Miguel Centellas offers an overview of Santa Cruz’s proposed political structure in his blog. Santa Cruz was the first of four provinces to hold an autonomy referendum earlier this summer; while autonomy won by a landslide, the National Electoral Court has not recognized the legitimacy of any of those referenda.

Bolivia’s energy resources lie at the heart of the power struggle between the high and lowlands. The reason given for this week’s strikes is the Morales government’s plan to use energy revenues for a national pension plan, with protesting provinces calling for a bigger share of the take. Newsweek’s Why It Matters blog suggests that, given the fact that both sides’ earned solid victories in the recall vote, “[a] resolution seems distant” and the continuing split could lead to conflict.

But the Economist points out that, though Morales did not break the eastern opposition, the president “will now be able to bargain from a position of much greater strength” because of his strong victory. Morales has pointed out that the tax hikes on energy companies during his 2006 nationalizations result in plenty of cash for anti-poverty programs. As the Democracy Center’s blog notes, in a country plagued by poverty, the vote of confidence for Morales shows that Bolivians opt for what “they think will make their lives better.” Morales boosted his mandate with a win while cementing the indigenous majority’s role in the country’s political process, writes Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Still, Weisbrot warns that ushering in the new constitution—the fate of which will be divided in another referendum—promised by Morales political party may prove difficult because of Bolivia’s regional divisions.

Read a recent AS/COA Online interview with Florida International University’s Eduardo Gamarra about Bolivia’s recall vote.


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